Market Update 04/30/2013

[Natalia]

Sorry for such a late memo,

I should have send it yesterday, but as off 4/29/2013 we are back in CONFIRMED UPTREND. 

The reason why are back in Confirmed Uptrend is because the Nasdaq close on 52 week high (and it follow through to the upside today).

Several questions did came up from our meetup  members as well as other meetup members:

Don't we wait for a Follow Through Day to turn market in Confirmed Uptrend, where any major indices rise 1.4% on heavier volume than the day before?

In general, whenever a stock or index made a new 52 week high, in itself is the definition of uptrend: higher high, and higher low.

Larry Hite in Market Wizards says "When a market makes a historic high, it is telling you something. No matter how many people tell you why the market shouldn't be that high, or why nothing has changed, the mere fact that the price is at a new high tells you something has changed."

Low volume yesterday was a suspect, but volume came in today on above average volume, which more convincing ~

Seems that the moves in the past two days came from highly shorted stocks or stocks that has been left to death such as: AAPL, AKAM, DDD, SINA, ILMN, CLF, LULU, BBY, TSLA, NFLX, IBM 

There are a few good set up that are listed in IBD 50 tonight and within buy range, they are:

FLT: 5% above 73 buy point from a 3 weeks tight pattern; support at  10 week.

LL : Trading in tight range after last week 23% gain (could form a 3 week tight pattern)

LAD: Second rebound of 10 week line now seeing volume pick up

ARMH: Breaks out of flat base; 5% past 44.57 buy point. (Although the current accumulation is D, with a few more up days, it can turn around, i think:))

TRIP: Third rebound from 10-week faces resistance near 54.

QIHU: Cup-shaped base appears with buy point at 35.

UTHR: 6% past 63.21 buy point in flat base. 

SAVE: Tries to clear possible buy point at 26.97.

I don't see many tight patterns that I like to trade, the again the market has been up +2.5% in a week, the down -2.5% the next week, up, down, up, up... Although we had market in correction on February 25, 2013 (-3% decline), and April 17th, 2013 (-3.8% decline); It has been a very long time since we have a good correction, meaning with time and good % decline like 8-10%. The last good correction we had was October 10, 2012 - November 23rd, 2012 with -9% decline. Therefore, I don't believe that this is the time to be aggressive in the market.

Good bases are form during those decline.. Currently we have good leader that kept chugging along, but the too need rest

Be patient, stay safe in the market, protect your capital (money and emotional); there will be good set up coming up... I attached 2 charts, since last watchlist post, GOOG, GWRE has been moving in our favored direction (UP)... LGF still hanging around and ARMH look like it setting up again (posted chart tonight)

The old watchlist post link here : https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/plano-ibd-meetup/eU4t5DkUiPo

I look forward to see you all Thursday for our Meetup at Haggard Library, 2501 Coit Rd, Plano, TX at 6:15....

Sincerely,

Natalia