Re: Tidal Surprises: Researchers Unravel the Secret Behind Greenland’s Ice Meltdown

[John Nissen]

Hi Renaud,

Thanks.  This is a well researched and well written paper [1].  It shows that we urgently need to cool the Atlantic water lapping at the bases of Greenland and other Arctic glaciers as well as reducing Arctic temperatures more generally.  This is why cooling intervention north of 50N using MCB and SAI is recommended in the PRAG plan for planetary restoration (see recent text accompanying our temperature trajectory diagram).

Cheers, John

[1] Ciraci et al. (PNAS May 2023)

Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, before and during a retreat

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2220924120

On Sat, May 13, 2023 at 7:43 PM Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com> wrote:

It is open access

“Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, before and during a retreat” by Enrico Ciracì, Eric Rignot, Bernd Scheuchl, Valentyn Tolpekin, Michael Wollersheim, Lu An, Pietro Milillo, Jose-Luis Bueso-Bello, Paola Rizzoli and Luigi Dini, 8 May 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2220924120

Le jeu. 11 mai 2023 à 22:56, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> a écrit :

Do you have a link to the research paper?  I did a search without success.

Cheers, John

On Wed, May 10, 2023 at 6:47 PM Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://scitechdaily.com/tidal-surprises-researchers-unravel-the-secret-behind-greenlands-ice-meltdown/ 

[Douglas Grandt]

John et all.

Earlier this morning, Bill McKibben posted a blog on his Substack, and although it is mosyly unrelated, he focused on warming Bay of Bengal and vilified Exxon and Chevron as usual.

Thoughts, Prayers, Rage, Resistance

• https://open.substack.com/pub/billmckibben/p/thoughts-prayers-rage-resistance?r=r590f&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

Triggered by your mention of warm Atlantic waters lapping at Greenland, I am taking liberty to share my comment on Bill’s post:

Nothing new here, move along.

Since 2007 when I met you at Golden Gate Park (to introduce “350” we did pushups and jumping jacks on the lawn together), I’ve been advocating #RetireRefineries #OnePerWeek which might have forced CO2 ppm down to 300ppm by now, but the economic and political forces dictated expansion, not shrinking of the problem.

Your summary of today’s status points to decades more struggle, tipping points passing by in relentless unfettered slow motion.  

Is now the time to seriously research and deploy serious triage intervention (like COR and tourniquet) to cool the oceans by replenishing the marine life to Holocene norms? From phytoplankton to fisheries and whales whose mass and fecal matter sequester carbon naturally.

And replenish the Arctic ice cap, Greenland ice sheet and Himalayan glaciers, all of which will “tip” irreversibly long before Net Zero might save them.  

Warm Atlantic, Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean waters will not cool by reducing future emissions.  Removing past legacy emissions and direct cooling are needed to curtail the incursion of warm tropical subsea currents that melt the polar ice from below.

I’d say this reality needs to become the kitchen table conversation such that our esteemed leaders sense our collective outrage. We need to somehow turn oil & gas and their henchmen in DC on their heads. Nationalize and use command and control measure to wind them down adroitly! 

Cheers!

Doug in Vermont (Bills home state)

Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

On May 14, 2023, at 6:39 AM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:



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[John Nissen]

 

Hi Doug,

 

Warming in the Bay of Bengal is relevant to climate change [1]. Blaming the FF companies will achieve nothing; cooling intervention is the only hope for bettering the future of Bangladesh.  You should explain this to Bill McKibben very directly and bluntly.

Cheers, John

 

[1] ABC News today

Powerful Cyclone Mocha slams into the Bay of Bengal

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/News/video/powerful-cyclone-mocha-slams-bay-bengal-99314851

 

A massive storm is bearing down on Bangladesh and Myanmar this morning. Half a million people are fleeing their homes ahead of this storm.

 

[Douglas Grandt]

Today, McKibben opened the door for respectful escalation …

https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/maybe-we-should-have-called-this/comments

My comment on Bill's substack:

As you probably know, Michael Mann posted the same "NOAA SST World (60S-60N)" chart recently. That chart does not reveal the truly frightening trend of ocean heat over the past 6 decades. Dr. Mann and two groups of scientists co-authored a paper with a "Global ocean heat content in the upper 2000 m" chart that clearly shows the 60-year ocean temperature trend in 1920 (https://bit.ly/Springer27Jan20) and again this year (https://bit.ly/Springer11Jan23). The charts shows ocean heat increasing at a rate four times greater since the 1990s as compared to the previous 30 years.

Another paper publish last August (https://bit.ly/AGU29Aug21) concluded that "Earthshine" as measured on the dark side of the moon has decreased about 25% from 1998 to 2017. (It is a complicated calculation, and I was initially told by one of my mentors that 25% is incorrect, but later he took that back and confirmed it is. indeed, a 25% reduction. The point is, as you allude over and over, things are disintegrating abruptly right under our noses.

Who would have thought Jim Hansens "Faustian Bargain" would become kitchen table conversation?

What we are observing is evidence that—to use a currently poignantly sad analogy—Mother Earth is lying on the ground in a puddle of blood—having been shot in the thigh—and her femoral artery is bleeding out. We should be metaphorically be applying a tourniquet, but we are debating metaphorically whether guns or troubled teenage boys are the problem. In climate jargon, we need to apply immediate short term measures to strategically cool specific "hot spots" that will do the most good in the near term while we ramp up the long term remedies.

James Hansen et al. also published a pre-print (for peer review) "Global warming in the pipeline" as you most likely know. The ABSTRACT begins with the astonishing findings:

"Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO2 (2×CO2).... Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C."

In simples terms (for readers), even if we were to cease emitting carbon emissions immediately (2022 in the Hansen's analysis) the global temperature trajectory would continue upward and level off at around 10°C in a few centuries—passing through 6.7°C in one hundred years (~2125) unless we employ some sort of albedo enhancement and carbon removal.

Whether or not peer review gives a nod or refutes Hansen's paper, I believe it is time to seriously look at all options (ordinary and extraordinary) adhering to scientific method rather than speculation and gut feelings. That includes all forms of cooling the ocean, atmosphere, particular regions, seasons, natural, bio-mimicry and technological, benign and potentially dangerous and search for yet unknown means of cooling. We will soon have to decide what to deploy and at what scale. We need research to know the acceptable limits.

Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

On May 14, 2023, at 3:17 PM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:



 

Hi Doug,

 

Warming in the Bay of Bengal is relevant to climate change [1]. Blaming the FF companies will achieve nothing; cooling intervention is the only hope for bettering the future of Bangladesh.  You should explain this to Bill McKibben very directly and bluntly.

Cheers, John

 

[1] ABC News today

Powerful Cyclone Mocha slams into the Bay of Bengal

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/News/video/powerful-cyclone-mocha-slams-bay-bengal-99314851

 

A massive storm is bearing down on Bangladesh and Myanmar this morning. Half a million people are fleeing their homes ahead of this storm.

 

On Sun, May 14, 2023 at 12:56 PM Douglas Grandt <answer...@mac.com> wrote:

John et all.

Earlier this morning, Bill McKibben posted a blog on his Substack, and although it is mosyly unrelated, he focused on warming Bay of Bengal and vilified Exxon and Chevron as usual.

Thoughts, Prayers, Rage, Resistance

[John Nissen]

Hi Doug,

Excellent posting on Bill McGibben's substack!  Did you get any reaction?  Will Bill McGibben have seen it?

BTW, I'm not surprised by the x4 increase in ocean heat absorption.  There was a period of cooling from 1940 to 1970, due to heaps of SO2 in the atmosphere from coal burning, so relatively little heat would have gone into the ocean.

Cheers, John

[John Nissen]

Digging into this a bit more (and oops it’s McKibben with K), I find his posting very alarming [1].   Look at the temperature data and that map of anomalies!  It warrants a massive global cooling effort, as well as the top priority refreezing of the Arctic.  Our planet is on the edge.  The 1.5C will be blown by El Niño within a few years – and that’s official [2].

 

John

 

[1] Bill McKibben

Maybe we should have called this planet 'Ocean'

Because then we'd be paying more attention to some truly freaky data

https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/maybe-we-should-have-called-this

 

[2] Guardian

World likely to breach 1.5C climate threshold by 2027, scientists warn

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/17/global-heating-climate-crisis-record-temperatures-wmo-research

[Douglas Grandt]

John,

It’s very likely Bill read it, as he has replied to another since mine was posted.

Only reaction so far is several others have chimed in and I got 10 likes.

Doug

Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/planetary-restoration/CACS_FxoX1kMbr5Lg9HRNBZTPB58fc8zD5pfdFYzV0yM21rPDRw%40mail.gmail.com.

[Douglas Grandt]

John,

Yup! I use his own words and observations as the springboard by agreeing and reiterating bits from his posts, adding our perspective with nuance that averse confrontation, but plants the seed for the subsequent opportunity to escalate a bit.

He is playing right into my strategy. Soon I will reach out with an email again, suggesting we meet for coffee or a beer. He knows I’m no crackpot … but that I occupied—and sued—Rex Tillerson over several years. My photo chained to some yellow iron (tree skidder) on Texas KXL pipeline construction was in his national tour “Do The Math” slide deck (in Berkeley, friends shouted out “there’s Doug!” 🤪).

I am confident he will eventually concede to testing MCB, SAI and other geoengineeing, and I will encourage him to write about it and, most importantly, have a heart-to-heart with Michael Mann.

Cheers,

Doug

Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

On May 20, 2023, at 12:57 PM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:



[Rebecca personal em]

What a wonderful email, Doug - thanks for explaining your approach & the background, & look forward to seeing some photos of those days sometime,

Rebecca 

On 21 May 2023, at 3:28 am, 'Douglas Grandt' via Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

John,

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/planetary-restoration/AD5CE53C-3B1B-413A-931B-1D9C218028BC%40mac.com.

[John Nissen]

Count me in, too!

Thanks, John