Re: Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming | Nature Geoscience

[John Nissen]

Hi Renaud,

I'd already spotted this article.  I find that papers like this that depend upon models are always suspect.  There is a strong argument, from the dynamics of the Earth System, that the reduced temperature gradient between the poles and lower latitudes will reduce the energy driving Rossby waves eastward round the planet.  We can observe this trend from the behaviour of the polar jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere and the associated polar vortex.  There is a clear trend, and an accelerated trend, towards slower movement of the wave and the wave getting stuck in blocking patterns with reduced wind.  This produces "stuck weather" and heat domes, etc.  The article disguises the truth about this and implies that global warming is somehow directly responsible for the acceleration.  

When SAI is applied, it is important that this trend is reversed rather than reinforced.  This is why SAI with injection at 50-60N to cool the Arctic is recommended for the first deployment, with global cooling applied later or more gradually.

With the heat dome effect being felt in Europe, governments should be informed of the true situation, and how it can be countered by SAI, if only SAI were not so denigrated by the climate scientists claiming authority.  My greatest fear from SAI is that it will be applied too late to prevent tipping point catastrophe.  The cooling power requirement for lowering the Arctic temperature is growing by the day.  SAI is needed with extreme urgency, which nobody seems to realise, even Wake Smith.  Or perhaps they dare not promote SAI urgency because of peer pressure or fear of abuse.

BTW, I wanted to talk about this with Mark Lynas at the London Climate Week, but put the wrong date in my diary by mistake and missed the reminders.   Sorry, Mark.

Cheers, John

On Sat, Jun 27, 2026 at 2:52 PM Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com> wrote:

Are you looking for this article ?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01737-w