Re: [The Washington Post] When scientists tagged a curious seal, he led them to signs of a potential climate disaster

[John Nissen]

Thanks Rafe,

The West Antarctic glaciers are of concern.  This disruption in East Antarctica could be an added reason to cool both poles.  If the pole to tropics gradient has reduced in the Antarctic as well as the Arctic, then cooling the Antarctic would strengthen the circumpolar winds.

Cheers, John

On Sun, Jan 22, 2023 at 10:37 PM Rafe Pomerance <rafe.po...@gmail.com> wrote:

You may want to share this article with the various groups. Among the many issues it raises is the cause of the change of circumpolar winds in the Antarctic which could be a result of a change in the temperature gradient of the SH. The change in circumpolar winds maybe driving the observed changes to major Antarctic glaciers.  No on I know has analysed how and if SRM might reverse this potentially devastating change in the circumpolar winds.

When scientists tagged a curious seal, he led them to signs of a potential climate disaster

The seal and robot helped scientists find a climate change disaster waiting to happen in one of the most mysterious regions on Earth: vast glaciers in West Antarctica.

By Chris Mooney and Simon Ducroquet

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/01/18/climate-change-glacier-antarctica/

Download The Washington Post app.

Sent from my iPhone

[Rafe Pomerance]

John, It may be the the temperature gradient shift in the SH is the reverse of the Arctic.  The tropics are warming more than the polar region growing rather than shrinking  the temperature gradient.  Of course I might have this wrong, but that’s what I remember  from earlier conversations with scientists.  I am having a conversation with a key Thwaites scientist tomorrow and will  review my understanding.Rafe

Rafe

[Aria Mckenna]

Thank you Rafe.  I certainly look forward to hearing your take aways from from your conversation regarding Thwaites. 🙏🌎💦

Warmest Thanks For Everything You Do,
🙏❤🌎🌾🐋💫

Aria McKenna
Creative Producer, Actress and Climate Communicator
718-288-0472

BECOMING THE CHANGE
-Turning Eco-Anxiety into Hope

Watch our first Roundtable @
www.BecomingTheChange.Us

www.buymeacoffee.com/AriaMcKenna

www.rEvolutionEarth.TV
www.GlobalCoolingProductions.com
www.AriaMcKenna.com
www.imdb.me/AriaMcKenna

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[Rafe Pomerance]

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Rafe Pomerance <rafe.po...@gmail.com>
Date: January 24, 2023 at 7:35:46 PM EST
To: rafe Pomerance <rafe.po...@gmail.com>
Subject: [The Washington Post] When scientists tagged a curious seal, he led them to signs of a potential climate disaster

Thwaites summary

I did chat with a Thwaites specialist today and confirmed  that changes in the SH  temperature gradient and resulting  changes in  circumpolar winds are an important component of what is happening in West Antartica, and in particular with Thwaites Glacier.  The changes in both the air temperature gradient and the circumpolar wind intensity which are driving changes in warm water delivery to the base of deep Antarctic glaciers appear to be driven by our warming planet.  So the question could be, can the air temperature gradient and circumpolar winds be returned to an earlier condition by either reducing net insolation energy or reducing greenhouse gas concentrations ? And, would that change the rate at which warmer deep water is interacting with Antarctic glaciers?  My sense is that some of the experts think this is the case.

[John Nissen]

Hi Rafe,

There has been a long-running controversy about whether the Antarctic as a whole was cooling, ever since a climate change denier claimed that the cooling of Antarctica was evidence against the existence of global warming.  In fact the Arctic has been warming over the past 50 years, as shown on the map with the WAIS in red [1].  Some of the WAIS rapid warming is no doubt driven by albedo positive feedback.  But EAIS is not warming perhaps as much as you'd expect.  This is almost certainly because much of excess heat has gone into the Southern Ocean which is warming at an alarming rate.  I'm not sure whether wind intensity is increasing or decreasing, but the warming is bound to contribute to the accelerated loss of ice shelves around Antarctica and the resultant accelerated discharge of ice from glaciers, in both WAIS and EAIS.

As for action, a reduction in the level of atmospheric GHGs would have a negligible effect on Antarctic and sub-Antarctic temperatures in the near or medium term.  But MCB using salt aerosol and/or sulphate aerosol from phytoplankton blooms over the Southern Ocean could have a significant effect; and SAI with injection at 50S or perhaps even further north, would certainly have a significant effect, assuming Smith, MacMartin et al are correct which I do not doubt [2]. 

Note that surface albedo enhancement could add to the phytoplankton cooling effect, e.g. with EHUX as particularly bright phytoplankton and/or buoyant flakes to supply stimulating nutrients.

Albedo enhancement can occur at all levels simultaneously without interference.  If we are to pull out all the stops, then this is what we must do - otherwise we risk a commitment to metres of sea level rise from the Antarctic glaciers.

I continue to exhort that halting the Arctic warming, with a view to refreezing it, is even more urgent than action on Antarctica because of (i) the unexpectedly rapid increase in extremes of weather resulting from Arctic amplification and (ii) the fact that tipping processes, including sea ice, Greenland Ice Sheet, permafrost methane and the AMOC, have been escalating since 1980.  Furthermore, restoring the Arctic ecosystem is important for biodiversity and preserving the traditional way of life for first nations.

There is everything to play for.in the Arctic - not quite so much in Antarctica.  But cooling for both is what's urgently needed if we want a decent future for everyone on this planet.  Arguably we should target halting the warming of the Arctic and the Southern Ocean within 5 years for a good chance to safeguard the future.

Cheers, John

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica_cooling_controversy

[2] Smith et al. (September 2022)

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ac8cd3/meta

[Michael MacCracken]

Just to note that warming in polar regions is greater than lower latitudes in part because virtually none of the trapped energy is going into evaporation because it is so cold, so virtually all goes into heating.. At low latitudes, much of the energy goes into evaporation and much less into heating--the payback being, of course, that the heat/discomfort index amplifies the impact of the temperature increase and the more the evaporation, the more (intense) precipitation.

Mike MacCracken

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[greenkni...@gmail.com]

Thanks Rafe.

Long time no see.

John Fitzgerald 

Counsel 

Methaneaction.org

Executive Committee

Sierra Club Maine Chapter 

John M. Fitzgerald

73 Bear Head Rd.

Sedgwick, ME 04676

202-288-0231

On Jan 23, 2023, at 8:06 PM, Aaron Franklin <stateoft...@gmail.com> wrote:



Ok, this presentation from Scientists on how Arctic amplification and Global climate change is NOT caused by Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases, but Submarine Vulcanism is a must watch:

https://youtu.be/9oRMWpKFjKs

I would suggest that you recognize that the Scientists who are measuring Salinities and temperatures of waters coming out from these glacial systems are being provided with sensors that "operate in quality controlled mode" this means they are deleting data that is too saline or hot to be seawater before anyone gets to see it.

It is Subglacial volcanism and hydrothermal output driving the melt. Despite what certain agencies might want you to believe. 

Regards

Aaron Franklin

On Tue, 24 Jan 2023, 12:26 pm Aria Mckenna, <ar...@globalcoolingproductions.com> wrote:

Thank you Rafe.  I certainly look forward to hearing your take aways from from your conversation regarding Thwaites. 🙏🌎💦

Warmest Thanks For Everything You Do,
🙏❤🌎🌾🐋💫

Aria McKenna
Creative Producer, Actress and Climate Communicator
718-288-0472

BECOMING THE CHANGE
-Turning Eco-Anxiety into Hope

Watch our first Roundtable @
www.BecomingTheChange.Us

www.buymeacoffee.com/AriaMcKenna

www.rEvolutionEarth.TV
www.GlobalCoolingProductions.com
www.AriaMcKenna.com
www.imdb.me/AriaMcKenna

On Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 3:40 PM Rafe Pomerance <rafe.po...@gmail.com> wrote:

John, It may be the the temperature gradient shift in the SH is the reverse of the Arctic.  The tropics are warming more than the polar region growing rather than shrinking  the temperature gradient.  Of course I might have this wrong, but that’s what I remember  from earlier conversations with scientists.  I am having a conversation with a key Thwaites scientist tomorrow and will  review my understanding.Rafe

Rafe

On Jan 23, 2023, at 2:47 PM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks Rafe,

The West Antarctic glaciers are of concern.  This disruption in East Antarctica could be an added reason to cool both poles.  If the pole to tropics gradient has reduced in the Antarctic as well as the Arctic, then cooling the Antarctic would strengthen the circumpolar winds.

Cheers, John

On Sun, Jan 22, 2023 at 10:37 PM Rafe Pomerance <rafe.po...@gmail.com> wrote:

You may want to share this article with the various groups. Among the many issues it raises is the cause of the change of circumpolar winds in the Antarctic which could be a result of a change in the temperature gradient of the SH. The change in circumpolar winds maybe driving the observed changes to major Antarctic glaciers.  No on I know has analysed how and if SRM might reverse this potentially devastating change in the circumpolar winds.

When scientists tagged a curious seal, he led them to signs of a potential climate disaster

The seal and robot helped scientists find a climate change disaster waiting to happen in one of the most mysterious regions on Earth: vast glaciers in West Antarctica.

By Chris Mooney and Simon Ducroquet

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/01/18/climate-change-glacier-antarctica/

Download The Washington Post app.

Sent from my iPhone

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[John Nissen]

 

Hi Rafe,

 

It would be interesting to know whether the Antarctic is warming slower than the tropics or whether there’s amplification going on.  The NH westerlies are weakened as a result of Arctic Amplification (causing a sea level rise on the east coast of the USA); but the SH westerlies are strengthening [1].

 

Cheers, John

 

[1] BAS (2018)

Increases in westerly winds weaken the Southern Ocean carbon sink

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-westerly-weaken-southern-ocean-carbon.html

 

A new study of lake sediments from the sub-Antarctic reveals for the first time that increases in westerly winds are likely to reduce the ability of the Southern Ocean to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The results are significant as the Southern Ocean currently absorbs over 40% of human-produced carbon dioxide, so any weakening of this 'carbon sink' could accelerate climate change. The findings are published today (Monday 23 July 2018) in the journal Nature Geoscience.

 

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (known by latitude as the roaring forties, furious fifties, and screaming sixties) are particularly strong due to the absence of continental landmasses between South America and Antarctica to slow them down. They play an important role in regulating how much carbon dioxide (greenhouse gas) is exchanged between the atmosphere and ocean. They do this by controlling the rate of mixing and upwelling of old carbon-rich deep water, which in turn determines how much carbon can be absorbed at the ocean surface. In the last few decades, there has been a strengthening of the westerly winds, and climate modellers have been unable to agree on whether this will enhance or weaken the Southern Ocean 'carbon sink'.

 

An international team of scientists measured the accumulation rate of wind-blown sea salts and minerals in a 12,000 year-old lake sediment record from sub Antarctic Macquarie Island. They show that periods of higher wind intensity directly correspond with periods of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide measured in ice cores. This suggests that further increases in wind strength may well reduce the capacity of the Southern Ocean 'carbon sink'.