Fwd: CO2 as a lagging or leading indicator

[Rebecca personal em]

Hello, all, 

Bruce Parker, a newish member of NOAC,  has written an eloquent and detailed explanation of CO2 as a lagging or leading indicator.  

I’m sending it to the other three Google groups I’m a member of, in case anyone does not see it on the NOAC list.

Bruce, there are pros and cons to joining all the different groups. Pros: a) lots of interesting things to read, and b) you can “reply all” and everyone will see your comment. Cons: see a).  

If you’d like to join, there should be someone in the NOAC group who can facilitate that, or else I’ll help you work out how to do it. 

Best wishes all,

Rebecca Bishop

Begin forwarded message:

From: Bruce Parker <br...@chesdata.com>
Date: 31 May 2023 at 12:59:29 am AEST
To: noac-m...@googlegroups.com
Subject: CO2 as a lagging or leading indicator



There was some discussion of this at the Monday meeting and it occurred to me that it primarily depends on why the oceans are warming (or cooling) over extended periods  of time.

 

If it is due to the Milinkovic cycles (which affects both albedo and solar insolation) then CO2 will be a lagging indicator as the oceans warm (outgassing CO2) or cool (absorbing CO2)

 

But if it is due to a “rapid” change in the CO2 concertation in the atmosphere (e.g., from burning fossils fuels) then the CO2 will be a leading  indicator as the additional heat trapped in (or allowed to escape from) the atmosphere warms the both the atmosphere and ocean (or allows the atmosphere  and oceans to cool). Since it can take millennia for the temperature to reach a new equilibrium, the temperature change is a lagging indicator.

 

Notes on ocean mixing

•       The oceans have absorbed over 90% of the warming that has occurred in recent decades

•       The top few meters of the ocean store as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere.

•       Climate change is creating a significantly more stratified ocean, which

•       Decreases the rate of heat transfer to the deep ocean

•       Amplifies global warming

•       Increases the likely value for “centuries-level” climate sensitivity

•       Negatively impacts the ocean ecosystem

 

Bruce Parker

 

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