Letter to the New Scientist, draft for comment

[John Nissen]

Dear editor,

The 14th March edition has articles on the AMOC, on accelerated global warming, and on sea level rise [1], projected to rise a metre maximum by 2100 [2].  However the articles, taken together, point to metres of sea level rise this century unless some drastic action is taken very soon.  The current global warming trend of ~0.36 metres per decade [3] leads towards 4C of warming by 2100 from a current value of 1.5C, these temperatures being with respect to pre-industrial values.  Emissions reduction, even in the most optimistic case, can make little difference to that trend, which if anything is accelerating.  

Over the last century, at an average of under 0.5 C global temperature, the sea level rose 0.2 metres.  During this century the average temperature could be 2.5C, so ocean expansion alone could produce over a metre of sea level rise.  In addition is the accelerated loss of ice from ice sheets.  At 4C the disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet is assured.  It contains enough ice to raise sea levels by 7 metres or more.  A partial disintegration, compounded by contributions from Antarctica, is likely to raise the sea level by well over a metre this century in sudden bursts as major glaciers collapse.

The combination of sea level rise from ocean expansion and meltwater this century would be devastating for Western Europe, the USA, Russia, China and India, let alone smaller countries like Bangladesh which depend on large river deltas for livelihoods.  But there is also the immediate climate crisis arising from Arctic meltdown reaching a point of no return.

In my recent submission to the EU on Arctic policy, I stressed the urgent need for the Arctic to be refrozen to prevent four potential catastrophes: over a metre of sea level rise provoked by partial disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet; global warming boosted beyond control by an outburst of megatons of methane from permafrost; extreme weather remorselessly intensified by jet stream disruption; and a devastatic reconfiguration of global ocean circulation due to AMOC collapse. Any one of these catastrophes would hit the peoples of the Western Europe and the Arctic hard, with the collapse of economies and food supplies highly likely.  Of all the cooling interventions, only Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) has the power to refreeze the Arctic.  Research shows that deployment would be extraordinarily cheap and safe in comparison with the costly results of unabated Arctic meltdown.   But most super-powers (with the possible exception of India) seem hell-bent on exploiting the Arctic for its resources and sea routes, taking advantage of its meltdown.  Western European countries need to behave as a united super-power to counter this exploitation. They need to test and prepare for full scale SAI deployment, both to prevent Arctic meltdown and to reverse global warming, thereby returning the planet to a better place for the flourishing of humanity and biodiversity.

Yours sincerely, etc.

[1] The relevant articles are on pages 6 and 7:

1. Signs key ocean current is weakening

2. Earth is heating up faster than before

3. Global sea levels are much higher than we thought

[2] To quote from 3: "Projections that sea levels will rise by up to 1 metre by the end of the century are still accurate."

[3] To quote from 2: "Earth was warming by about 0,18C per decade prior to 2013-14.  Since then, it has been heating up by about 0.36C per decade, according to an analysis by Stefan Rahmstorf... and Grant Foster."

[John Nissen]

Here's my latest version:

Three 14th March articles — on weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), accelerated global warming, and underestimated sea level rise — collectively warn of a monumental global crisis driven by accelerated Arctic meltdown and compounded by global warming.   

The current warming of ~0.36°C per decade heads us inexorably towards 4°C by 2100, with emissions reductions having little effect.

The scale of the threat is stark. Ocean expansion alone, given a projected average temperature of 2.5°C this century versus under 0.5°C last century, would exceed one metre. Add ice mass loss from Greenland's partial disintegration, compounded by ice loss from Antarctica, and sea levels could rise several metres, in sudden bursts as glaciers collapse.  The consequences would be catastrophic around the world.

Worse still, Arctic meltdown may already be approaching a point of no return, risking three further catastrophes: runaway warming from permafrost methane release; intensified extreme weather from jet stream disruption; and a civilisation-threatening AMOC collapse. 

But the good news: Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) has the cooling power to defuse this crisis by refreezing the Arctic and lowering the global temperature.  Extensive research suggests possible adverse side-effects would be manageable and the technique prove remarkably safe, in contrast to the consensus of climate scientists. 

The EU, UK and other western European countries must unite, resist superpower exploitation of the melting Arctic, and urgently test and deploy SAI to minimise risk of catastrophe for us all.

On Mon, Mar 23, 2026 at 11:12 PM John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:

Great.  I can work on that tomorrow morning.  Thanks.  John

On Mon, Mar 23, 2026 at 10:31 PM Douglas Grandt <answer...@mac.com> wrote:

Claude gave the following in an instant … 234 words: 

Since you are on your phone, this is 16 pitch Helvetica  … is it readable?

The 14th March edition's articles on AMOC, accelerated warming, and sea level rise — individually projecting a maximum one-metre rise by 2100 — collectively point to metres of rise this century. The current warming trend of ~0.36°C per decade puts us on course for 4°C by 2100. Even the most optimistic emissions reductions can barely dent that trajectory.

The scale of the threat is stark. Ocean expansion alone, given a projected average temperature of 2.5°C this century versus under 0.5°C last century, could exceed one metre. Add accelerating ice sheet loss: at 4°C, Greenland's disintegration is assured, risking 7+ metres of sea level rise. Partial disintegration, compounded by Antarctica, will likely deliver sudden, catastrophic bursts of rise well beyond one metre.

The consequences — for Western Europe, the USA, China, India, and river-delta nations like Bangladesh — would be devastating. Worse still, Arctic meltdown may already be approaching a point of no return, risking four compounding catastrophes: Greenland-driven sea level rise; runaway warming from permafrost methane release; intensified extreme weather from jet stream disruption; and civilisation-threatening AMOC collapse.

In my recent EU submission on Arctic policy, I argued that only Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) can refreeze the Arctic — and research shows it would be extraordinarily cheap relative to the cost of inaction. Western Europe must unite, resist superpower exploitation of the melting Arctic, and urgently test and deploy SAI before the window closes.

I have not read it nor compared it to the original draft yet

Doug

On Mar 23, 2026, at 5:48 PM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:

Hi Doug,

The draft contains 480 words without the references, etc.  The New Scientist likes letters of 200-250 words.  Could Claude cut it down without changing the meaning and, if possible, make it more persuasive at the same time?

Cheers, John

[John Nissen]

Since I've got words to spare, I've changed the last paragraph and tweaked elsewhere.

I have already written to the EU about this.  The EU, UK and other western European countries must unite to resist the US and other superpowers intent on exploiting the Arctic meltdown for short-term gains and competitive advantage.  Together we must urgently test and deploy SAI to minimise the risk of catastrophe for us all and pave the way for restoring the planet to a safe place.

[Paul Klinkman]

Dear Restorers,

Civil engineers of repute will always expect to survive a worst case scenario, a 100 year flood or, in the case of ocean flooding in the Netherlands, a 10,000 year flood.  Planning to survive the 50th percentile chance of the coming sea level rise disaster wouldn't be a particularly forthstraight example of planning integrity.

Is there geologic evidence of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet having an earthquake-driven quick collapse into the ocean?  Is there geologic evidence of sudden ocean level rises of, say, 10 meters in a 50 year period?  Is there geologic evidence of oversized upward hockey stick heat spikes in response to some smaller driving event?  I ask because these could indicate a nonzero chance of a large sea level rise.

Yours in Hope,

Paul Klinkman

[John Nissen]

Hi Paul,

Sudden climate change and rapid sea level rise does happen.

At the end of the Younger Dryas, 11.7 kya, there was a 7-10C increase in Arctic temperature over 50 years, and the sea level rose 20 metres over the next 400 years.

And Albert has shown me evidence that Arctic glaciers can suddenly collapse, discharging gigaton ice blocks into the sea at great speed.  I have found evidence of the megatsunamis so produced.

Such collapse could be provoked by a dammed lake upstream discharging its content.  Or a volcano under the ice could do it.  Or a large earthquake.  Or a tsunami at the glacier termination.  But I'm not sure about any specific cases.

Cheers, John

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