Re: Last chance to submit an abstract to AGU26! Deadline 5 August.

[John Nissen]

Dear Peter,

I have decided to submit an abstract this year, having failed last year. It would be submitted for the session which I suggested a week ago [1].  This time I am going to try pre-publication of the full paper, so it can be a proper challenge to the climate scientist community (including Slingo) even if it is never published by AGU.

I am thinking about a title on the following lines:

"The scientific case for urgent deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) to slow and reverse Arctic meltdown"

What do you think?  Would you like to be a co-author?

BTW, the state of the sea ice and NH atmospheric circulation, combined with a growing El Nino, adds urgency to our case [2].

Cheers, John

[1] GC003

https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu26/prelim.cgi/Session/280250 

As the window to stop catastrophic climate change narrows, proposals to deliberately modify the climate system by reflecting sunlight to reduce the impacts of global warming (Solar Radiation Management or SRM) have received increasing attention. Proposed methods of SRM include stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), marine cloud brightening (MCB), cirrus or mixed-phase cloud thinning, and surface- or space-based albedo modifications. While SRM interventions could have substantial benefits, significant risks and uncertainties remain. We welcome contributions that advance natural science research in SRM, including: physical and chemical processes and mechanisms; climate and ecosystem impacts; predictive modeling, engineering and field experiments; observations and natural analogues; and risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. We also encourage interdisciplinary studies that connect climate impacts with various fields such as the social sciences, political analysis, ethics, and governance, and we particularly encourage submissions from underrepresented communities or those who may be disproportionately affected by climate change.

[2] Andrej Flis (Severe Weather Europe, July 2026)

A Seasonal Weather Shift is forming as Super El Nino Merges with Record-low Arctic Sea Ice for 2026/2027 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/seasonal-weather-shift-el-nino-sea-ice-influence-forecast-2026-2027-united-states-canada-eruope-fa/

On Mon, Aug 3, 2026 at 4:45 PM AGU Annual Meeting <a...@agu.org> wrote:

Only two days left until the Abstract Deadline!

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[John Nissen]

Dear Peter, 

I've not heard from you, so I am submitting this abstract myself, on behalf of PRAG, with the previously suggested title:

The scientific case for urgent deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) to slow and reverse Arctic meltdown

Abstract

Rapid Arctic warming, known as Arctic Amplification, has affected jet stream behaviour, resulting in Rossby waves meandering and sticking behaviour.  This accelerating trend is a major driver of weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere. This trend needs to be halted and reversed while it is still possible.  Likewise, the accelerated meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet needs to be halted while it is still possible, otherwise future generations will be committed to an inexorable and unstoppable rise in sea level rise, with metres likely this century.  Further Arctic tipping elements include the AMOC and permafrost.  A collapse of AMOC would almost certainly produce catastrophic climate change in many parts of the world.  Thawing permafrost, both on land and under the sea, has the potential to release gigatons of the potent greenhouse gas, boosting global warming beyond the limits of endurance for many countries.  All these tipping processes are driven by temperature.  Calculations suggest that, of all the possible cooling interventions, only SAI has enough cooling power to lower the Arctic temperature.  The risk of failure, as a product of probability and impact, is already huge and growing by the day, making the deployment of SAI extremely urgent.

Cheers, John