Re: [HPAC] Authoritarianism is undermining climate action but there is an upside

[John Nissen]

Hi David,

Thanks for the climate emergency report.  We could add a sea level emergency to that, because of the Greenland tipping point - see my letter to the FT on behalf of PRAG 1].

The conclusion which you must now surely make is that our best hope is SRM, and SAI is the only available technique at the necessary scale.  

Emissions are expected to remain around their current level till at least 2050: the fossil fuel companies will see to that.  No cooling can be expected from emissions reduction.  We are on path for 2C by 2040 at the expected rate of temperature rise: 0.36C per decade average according to Hansen, see diagram attached.  4C is more than likely by 2100 without direct cooling intervention.

But the Arctic is warming about 4 times faster.  We are approaching the tipping point - a point of no return - for the whole Arctic, when the various catastrophes from meltdown all become inevitable.  Emergency deployment of SAI to lower the Arctic temperature and halt the meltdown should now be a priority.  

The possibility of collaboration of the major powers in the deployment of SAI could be a force for peace, even with increasingly authoritarian governments.  Is there a chance of promoting this vision to your readership?  Please.

Cheers, John

[1] Nissen obo PRAG (FT, January 26th)

Greenland meltdown and the reasons it matters

https://www.ft.com/content/f22de995-3b86-4e09-bf1b-379d6b587d2f 

On Sun, Feb 8, 2026 at 10:23 PM 'David Spratt' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

Authoritarianism is undermining climate action but there is an upside

Authoritarianism is undermining climate action – and time is running out as warming accelerates and tipping points draw near. But as globalisation fades, national governments must assert their role in leading a climate emergency response.

STORY

Authoritarianism is undermining climate action – and time is running out

https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/02/climate-action-in-the-age-of-authoritarianism-resetting-the-goal


DOWNLOAD REPORT

Climate emergency briefing: Impacts, risks & key actions in the age of climate-obstructive authoritarianism

https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/_files/ugd/148cb0_a040a3ae7e7b42c0bc484fc486ddbeef.pdf

SUMMARY

• Climate-hostile authoritarianism is stalking nations and global institutions, often allied with climate scepticism and denial. But as the globalisation cargo cult wanes, space opens up for nations to take greater control over their future and pursue higher-ambition, climate-focused mitigation, trade and security alliances.
• Global heating is accelerating, with the past three years averaging above 1.5°C, driven by a reduction in sulfate aerosol emissions due to clean-air policies, and a related cloud feedback. The Earth’s climate could be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than the central estimates, and warming is currently tracking the highest-emissions scenario. This would bring 2°C well before 2050 and 3°C around 2070. On this path, 4°C by 2100 is feasible.
• Many extreme events and their impacts have been underestimated in climate models. Risks include climate-driven inflation and big economic shocks, and mass displacement and death.
• We are in the danger zone where multiple climate tipping points are being triggered, some of which accelerate warming and worsen impacts. Thus there is a point of no return, after which it may be impossible to stabilise the climate close to conditions in which human society can be maintained. This risk is now, and requires immediate action to avoid it.
• The nature and the proximity of catastrophic impacts, tipping points and abrupt and cascading changes constitute the climate emergency. This requires governments to make actions to prevent climate breakdown the first priority of economics and politics.
• Key climate emergency actions for safe climate conditions:
• Moving rapidly on material quick wins, including reducing methane and other short-lived climate forcers, and halting deforestation;
• Supercharging the transition with policies to activate positive economic tipping points, driving investment and jobs, and accelerating the rate of emissions reductions;
• Working with nature, protecting and restoring natural carbon sinks at scale; and
• Applying emergency brakes by researching/deploying technological solutions to rapidly reduce the energy imbalance and mitigate the risk of climate tipping points.

David Spratt

Research Director,

Breakthrough

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