The Great Global Heating Emergency & The Climate Interventions to Avert It

[Garrity, Dennis]

Dear Colleagues, 

Here is the link to a keynote address that I was invited to present at the Philippines National Workshop on Shaping Responsible Governance for Emerging Climate Interventions that was convened on April 14th, 2026. 

My topic was: The Great Global Heating Emergency & The Climate Interventions to Avert It

Video Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qucTOZ5alp6n80R7RQ61cMrZiwTK-TvA/view?usp=sharing

(The occasion gave me the opportunity to wear my Barong Tagong.)

[Worms, Patrick]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10456-0

Without accounting for deforestation, we find a critical global warming threshold of 3.7–4.0 °C, beyond which up to a third of the Amazon forest risks losing stability. However, when considering deforestation, we find a near system-wide transition of the Amazon forest (62−77% of the area) under the combination of a lower threshold range of global warming of 1.5–1.9 °C and deforestation of 22–28%. 

Patrick Worms

Senior Science Policy Advisor, CIFOR-ICRAF

 

Ex-Officio Trustee, IUAF - the International Union of Agroforestry

Senior Fellow, EURAF – the European Agroforestry Federation

Trustee, Savanna Institute

Senior Fellow, EGA – the Evergreening Global Alliance

Steering Committee Member, ILLP - Initiatives for Land, Lives and Peace

Advisor, GALILEO Africa EU Project

Advisor, AFAktive LIFE EU Project 

Advisor, ERC - Ecosystem Restoration Camps

Executive Committee, IPC - International Poplar Commission, FAO

CEO, Earthsystemics SRL

 

Email: p.w...@cifor-icraf.org  

Tel +32 2 351 6829| Cell/WhatsApp + 32 495 24 46 11

cifor-icraf.org |  globallandscapesforum.org |  resilient-landscapes.org    

  

          

  

CIFOR-ICRAF are CGIAR Research Centers 

[Paul Klinkman]

I lean toward alarmism on deforestation.  

What has already happened:  I saw a report that In some regions of the Horn of Africa there was not one green leaf. The problem is, after an utter five year deforestation, aren't all the tree seeds of some species extinct in that region?  The questions become, what grows back if anything, how quickly does it grow back, can the last tree be destroyed before it reaches the safety of maturity and over how many kilometers will that tree's seeds spread, in this new crazy climate?

When half of the trees die, they become fuel for a megafire that can destroy the rest of that forest.  This doesn't have to be a hard and fast rule but it counts.  Most forests have swampy areas , refuges in a megafire for the next two colonizing generations of trees.  

We might find that, similar to the Horn of Africa megadrought, the leaves of the very last tree in any region will be fed to starving farm animals.  Alternatively, an insect plague may wipe out all trees.  Almost every last chestnut tree in the deep forest of New England was wiped out by a European chestnut blight, although the first generation of science-made blight resistant chestnut trees is growing up now..  In general, every tree that can't walk to cooler and wetter soil is going to find itself and all of its seeds in the wrong climactic zone.  Maybe a few out of trillions of trees will be able to hang on where they have their roots, but will they be able to repopulate the forest in 10 years after a megadrought event?  If not, what are the farmers' odds of a second no-tree low humidity megadrought wiping out next year's crops?

So, what are the worst-case odds of a 90% decrease in forested land worldwide?  How will such a catastrophe affect regional humidity and crop yields over a bad decade of megadrought?

In New England 200 years ago, the land was cleared of all usable wood clear up to the tops of Vermont mountains.  Over the next 200 years blue jays carried acorns away from the few remaining oak trees and they buried their acorn stashes for winter feeding.  Right now, oak trees predominate all over most acres of abandoned farmland, it looks like Mother Nature's monocropping, with the rock walls of farmers still found in every forest..  Best guess, every township in New England had at least one oak tree that survived mankind's plague of axes.  That could be because an oak tree on the town green or in the back yard makes for an excellent, large shade tree.  

Some of my innovations rehumidify the regional air.  

Vines on trellises may be hardier than street trees.

Yours in Hope,

Paul Klinkman

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Hi Dennis and all

 

Your talk is the most brilliant exposition of the urgent need to test stratospheric aerosol injection that I have seen.

 

I encourage everyone to watch your presentation and share it widely to people who do not understand climate change.  Your message of the primacy of albedo restoration – rebrightening the Earth - is simple and clear and compelling.  There is no moral or factual basis to ignore this scientific paradigm shift.

 

Your credibility as leader of the World Agroforestry Union and the Evergreening Alliance, as well as chair of the Healthy Planet Action Coalition, should encourage people with links to the mainstream media and other key influencers to study the simple analysis you present in order to shift the terms of the public debate on climate policy.

 

Sadly, the IPCC has lost all credibility, due to its capture by various interest groups, and is allowing headlong descent into collapse.

 

I hope the Government of the Philippines will help to convene a Coalition of First Mover Nations to govern the rebrightening of the Earth.  Your observation of the potential benefits of targeted Marine Cloud Brightening to mitigate typhoon intensity should be enough to get the Philippines involved at official level.  And as you say, SAI should be the primary global focus.

 

Other national governments who should join this coalition in the first instance include India, Iceland, Switzerland, Canada and the UK.

 

Again, I encourage everyone to watch and share and discuss your presentation.  It is extremely well done and has potential to enable the social tipping point we need for climate stability.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

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