Around the world, the most widely used set of global and local sea–level rise projections are currently those of the 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Since AR6, research has advanced physical understanding and modeling capabilities with respect to a variety of key drivers of sea-level change, including high-resolution near-coastal ocean dynamics, critical ice sheet feedbacks and instabilities, and non-linear and high-resolution vertical land motion.
The goal of this workshop is to understand recent and ongoing progress related to projecting sea-level change and its drivers, as well as user perspectives on what has and has not worked in the use and communication of prior sea-level projections. It will focus both on process understanding and on the ability to derive statistical and/or physical relationships from process understanding that can be represented in the emulators underlying probabilistic projection frameworks. The workshop will also feature discussions of prospects for future observations over the next couple of decades to reduce uncertainties in long-term projections. The workshop aims to synthesize the current state of the science in a manner that builds an actionable roadmap to the next generation of integrated sea-level projections. For questions, contact regist...@agu.org.