Re: geoengineering security concerns in the Arctic
John Nissen
Hi Robert,
Thanks for the paper [1].
1. The authors of the paper do not seem to
have any grasp of why there is an urgent requirement to cool/refreeze the
Arctic: which is because of potentially catastrophic effects outside the Arctic on climate and SLR. Nor do the people they interview have any
grasp of this requirement; only seeing short-term advantage in retreating
ice.
2. The authors see geoengineering as a means to lessen the effects of global warming in the Arctic, and, somehow, they see this as a security threat. They say that even the nature of the security threat needs to be predicted by means of analysis over coming years: whereas we would say that the security threat exists from not using geoengineering (SRM)!
The paper may be useful to us in trying to persuade people that the dangers from Arctic meltdown present a huge security threat to the world and enormously outweigh (i) any advantage of exploiting the retreating ice and (ii) any risks from SRM sensibly applied.
Cheers, John
[1] Versen et al. (Climatic Change, 2022)
Concerns of climate intervention: understanding geoengineering security concerns in the Arctic and beyond
Abstract
As the global community struggles to meet carbon emission goals and climate-related disaster becomes more likely, geoengineering technologies are more frequently being considered as a possible defence against global warming. The Arctic, in particular, given its importance in future global climate dynamics as well as the fact that the region is already experiencing the effects of a warming planet, has become a focus for prospective geoengineering efforts. Here we explore different governments’ geopolitical interests to apply geoengineering (or, more specifically, solar radiation management) techniques to lessen the effects of global warming in the Arctic region. Based on interviews with experts in geopolitics and geoengineering, we find that most Arctic regional and quasi-regional actors have little incentive to use geoengineering to preserve the Arctic in particular in the near future. Melting Arctic ice presents a variety of short-term economic opportunities for all, though the rapidly changing climate will introduce significant challenges globally as Arctic sea ice is an important climate driver in lower latitudes. If geoengineering is to pose a threat to Arctic security, it will likely not come until imminent climate crises elsewhere prompt greater attention to the Arctic climate.
Introduction (extract)
Here we explore the geopolitics of geoengineering in the Arctic. Through a series of structured interviews with experts in geopolitics and geoengineering, we analyze governments’ incentives to apply geoengineering techniques to mitigate global warming in the Arctic in particular. We find that while climate change is an imminent threat for the Arctic, the opportunities it presents for countries in the region combined with the uncertainty around geoengineering methods may make global security concerns of geoengineering in the Arctic slightly less urgent. Countries currently seem to be more focused on developing the economic potential of the Arctic rather than considering drastic measures to preserve its climate. Other smaller Arctic countries, too, are aware of what they have to gain as the Arctic opens up. Given this reality, short-term deployment of any geoengineering technology in the Arctic becomes less likely.
If geoengineering is to pose an Arctic security threat, it will likely come in response to worsening climate conditions at lower latitudes. Because polar sea ice dynamics are a driver of worldwide weather conditions, interest in Arctic geoengineering is likely to grow as countries and their population centers begin to feel the imminent pressure of climate change at home in the form of rising sea levels and increased flooding, among other issues. To predict the exact nature of these security threats, variables of climate, geopolitics, and geoengineering must be closely monitored and analyzed in the coming years.
FYI