Stages in our response to the climate crisis: Progress towards reality and a miraculous opportunity

[John Nissen]

From the chair of the Planetary Restoration Action Group, PRAG

Hi PRAG people: the pragmatists!

Pragmatism

We are pragmatists because we are guided by practical considerations after evaluating strategies and techniques in terms of their practical application [1].  We challenge the consensus, tainted by dogma, politics and wishful thinking.  We study Earth System behaviour to establish the likely direction of travel, and we study how that direction can be reversed in order to re-establish norms of the past.

The goals

The immediate goal is to avert catastrophic climate change and sea level rise.  The ultimate goal is to restore the planet to a safe, sustainable, biodiverse and productive state.  Our mission is to persuade the "powers that be" to attempt to achieve these goals by employing the necessary strategy and deploying the necessary techniques as a matter of extreme urgency.  The climate crisis is a global emergency.

I was prompted to write about progress towards achieving these goals because of Paul Gambill from the CO2 removal (CDR) community who had come to realise that emissions reduction and CDR together were not enough to solve the climate crisis; see his email headed "What Carbon Removal Taught Me About Cooling" (Sept 1).  This was a Damascene conversion for him.  Direct cooling was going to be necessary for emissions reduction and CDR to succeed.

The absolute necessity for cooling intervention

The necessity is more fundamental.  Global warming is accelerating and weather extremes are intensifying.  Direct cooling is necessary to slow global warming and avoid tipping point catastrophe.  Furthermore, the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI), measured by the CERES satellite system, shows an imbalance which can only be rectified by direct cooling. This has been recognised by HPAC and NOAC as well as by PRAG [2].  

PRAG advances

But in PRAG we have gone two steps further.  Firstly we have identified the most urgent requirement as the halting of Arctic meltdown, which involves lowering the Arctic temperature - it is currently rising about four times faster than the global average.  We call this "refreezing the Arctic".  Secondly, we have recently come to realise that bringing down the Arctic temperature requires so much cooling power that only stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) can do the job.  This is the reality which has to be faced.

SAI opportunities

As a society we are suddenly presented with threats of unprecedented magnitude in the history of our civilisation.  SAI opens up a truly miraculous opportunity both to overcome these threats and to improve the prospects for future generations:

• When modern civilisation desperately needs a powerful intervention to save itself, the Earth System has demonstrated how massive cooling can be achieved using SO2 aerosol injected into the stratosphere by large volcanoes. 
• Research has shown that SAI can be deployed with minimal adverse effects both to refreeze the Arctic and to achieve more general cooling.  
• The reduction in temperatures in the Arctic and elsewhere can reverse climate change and slow the rate of sea level rise.
• The planet can be returned to the conditions of the late Holocene, which were left in the 1980s with the activation of a number of tipping elements.
• The ultimate goal of planetary restoration is now shown to be achievable at reasonable cost and remarkable safety.

Stages in our response to the crisis

Society's response to the climate crisis has been stuck for ages at the emissions reduction alone (ERA) stage, with backing from the climate establishment and enthusiastic support from climate activists.  Recently we have been moving into a stage which includes CDR so that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere does not rise so fast and can eventually be reduced.  This will slow warming but not reverse it.  We now need to move quickly, with acknowledgement of the direct cooling requirements, onto the SAI preparation and deployment stage.  There is no time to lose.

Cheers, John

[1] Meaning of pragmatist:

• 1.

  a person who is guided more by practical considerations than by ideals.

  "hardheaded pragmatists firmly rooted in the real world"
• 2.

  Philosophy

  an advocate of the approach that evaluates theories or beliefs in terms of the success of their practical application.

  "American pragmatists have influenced a great deal of recent philosophy of many types"

[2] HPAC stands for Healthy Planet Action Coalition, NOAC for Natural Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling, PRAG for Planetary Restoration Action Group.

[rob de laet]

Dear John, 

Thank you for this elaborate mail. We are both focused on the short and long term goal you describe, but I propose to integrate a few elements that I miss from this approach. 

A. Redefine a healthy biosphere as primary climate regulation infrastructure

Relying on SAI alone is like putting a ventilator on a patient with advanced lung cancer; it may keep them breathing temporarily, but it does nothing to heal the diseased tissue or restore the healthy functions needed for long-term survival. Also, there are fast working remedies available for nature to do a better cooling job in the short run. So I fully understand that SAI is a useful tool, but without resolving the underlying lethal disease it will just buy us a bit of time but lead to collapse anyway. 

The planet's biosphere and therefore its climate has been substantially altered over the last 6000 years or so, with the sudden acceleration almost solely attributed to the expanded use of fossil fuels, while the role of landuse change and ocean degradation are not mentioned at all. I think we need to redefine a healthy biosphere as primary climate regulation infrastructure, which has been particularly degraded since WWII due to the explosion of our numbers and our economic activity not just by using FFs but at least as much by destroying so much nature to make way for food production, industry and cities. 

A technical approach like SAI can slow warming temporarily, but it is a patch, rather than a cure. A planetary health approach that protects and restores the living systems, forests, wetlands, soils, and oceans, which regulate water, energy, and carbon, needs to be seen as both impactful interventions creating the long-term stability that technology alone cannot secure. They need to be included in any PRAG plan.

Of all the emergency interventions I can think of that would both have a fast impact and a long term are: 

1. a 100% moratium now on remaining old growth forests and protect and restore remaining tropical rainforests as the prime cooling organs of our living planet 

2. restore depleted ocean biology. 

This wil both increase cloud cover fast and sequester a lot of carbon. Any credible plan in my view needs to include these two measures. 

B. New information regarding Arctic amplicification

Lastly, with regards to Arctic amplification, I think it is wise to take a look at this piece by Ali Bin Shahid, pointing at the work by Cliff Krolick and others regarding the massive hydroelectric reservoirs of Artic ocean bound rivers and their wintertime vapor plumes, suggesting that this large-scale hydrological reengineering could be a hidden force shaping the fast Arctic warming: #158: The Forgotten Circuitry of Arctic Feedbacks

#158: The Forgotten Circuitry of Arctic Feedbacks Ali Bin Shahid Tracing the unseen architecture beneath snow loss, fog corridors, and the collapse of carbon sinks.

Best, 

Rob de Laet 

Project Lead Cooling the Climate

Member of the EcoRestoration Alliance

Fellow of Global Evergreening Alliance

Fellow fo the Schumacher Institute

Co-founder of Senang Eco Services

WhatsApp: +55 71 992617846

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