Re: 2025 was hotter than it should have been: Five influences and a dirty surprise offer clues to what's ahead

1 view

Skip to first unread message

John Nissen

unread,

Mar 6, 2026, 6:15:32 AM (5 days ago) Mar 6

to Renaud de RICHTER, Planetary Restoration, healthy-planet-action-coalition

Hi Renaud,

Thanks for the link. The article was originally published in The Conversation [1]. I think it deserves a reply. But more urgently, can you contribute to the drive for SRM to cool the Arctic by submitting a contribution, as a French and therefore EU citizen, to the comments on EU Arctic policy, requested by the EU [2]? The deadline is coming up on 16th March. A huge amount is at stake if the Arctic meltdown isn't halted quickly soon.

Re [1], this is geared towards a demand for emissions reduction, as in the concluding paragraph. However there are some revealing information about the situation on the albedo side:

Declining polar ice, which efficiently reflects sunlight back into space, also affects the energy balance. As sea ice declines, it leaves dark ocean water that absorbs most of the sunlight that reaches it. In a spiraling feedback, warmer water melts sea ice, allowing more sunlight into the ocean, warming it faster; 2025 had the lowest winter peak of Arctic sea ice on record and the third-lowest minimum extent of Antarctic ice. https://images.theconversation.com/files/719739/original/file-20260221-56-l3w6s.png

Recent reductions in sulfate pollution – now 40% less than 20 years ago – have meant about a 0.2 F (0.13 C) increase in global temperatures. Much of the reduction was from China’s efforts to reduce its notoriously bad air pollution in recent years and international shipping rules in effect since 2020 that have reduced sulfur emissions from large ships by 85%.

A claim is made that the warming rate is now 0.27C per decade. Hansen puts it at around 0.36C per decade, i.e. double the 0.18C average of the past few decades. But anyway, there is clearly an acceleration in global warming, and it cannot be attributed to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the author points out.

BTW, I am planning to have a special PRAG meeting next Monday at 9 pm local time to discuss final contributions from individuals and the group. I would be grateful to see any drafts.

Cheers, John

[1] https://theconversation.com/2025-was-hotter-than-it-should-have-been-5-influences-and-a-dirty-surprise-offer-clues-to-whats-ahead-276605

[2] https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/16154-EU-Arctic-policy-Update_en

On Fri, Mar 6, 2026 at 3:35 AM Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com> wrote: