Re: Ocean heat is off the charts—here's what that means for humans and ecosystems around the world

[Ron Baiman]

Thank you Renaud!  I hope you don't mind my distributing this more broadly as I think it's quite important!

Best,

Ron

On Thu, Jun 22, 2023 at 10:27 AM Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ocean-chartshere-humans-ecosystems-world.html 

[Tom Goreau]

Yes, but we are seeing what may turn out to be 2023 extreme heat events only just starting to develop.

 

A measure of extreme ocean heat stress is the Coral Bleaching HotSpot map, showing areas more than 1 degree C above the historical averages for the warmest month of the year (yellow areas are at threat of coral bleaching)  (Goreau & Hayes, 2021).

 

At the moment, extreme surface heat is focused on equatorial waters far from coral reefs, and the Northeast Atlantic:

 

 

But the Northern Hemisphere summer is only rapidly starting, and equatorial heat is rapidly being transported towards the North Polar regions, below is the latest rate of surface ocean warming, ocean surface heat is headed for the Arctic!

 

Be warned: All this will change rapidly when we enter a full El Niño!

 

 

 

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Blue Regeneration SL
President, Biorock Technology Inc.

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Skype: tomgoreau
Tel: (1) 617-864-4226 (leave message)

 

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466595392

 

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734

 

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

 

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

 

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

 

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

 

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[Maiken Winter]

Hi dear all,

may I ask you... since all the writing and talking didn't help and we are now close to the irreversible tipping points we know about for years...what's your opinion about Science Rebellion and the Last Generation? Do you consider to also become part of this movement (as I am)?

It's horrible that we are so far into this catastrophe that even I blockade streets.

Best,

Maiken

Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com> hat am 26.06.2023 18:28 CEST geschrieben:

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[rob...@rtulip.net]

Hello Maiken

 

I had not heard of Last Generation but we have equivalent groups in Australia. I found a report on German government crackdown on last generation disruptive protests at https://earth.org/last-generation-activists/.

 

Such groups mean well but lack coherent strategic vision of how to prevent dangerous warming and are often unwilling to engage in courteous dialogue.  They wrongly imagine that shutting down fossil fuel industries as fast as possible is the best way to respond to climate change.  This is a popular line on the political left, but it is a futile and incorrect ideology that sets back efforts to improve public understanding of climate science.

 

Cutting emissions is marginal to the immediate climate situation, given the high risk of tipping points which can only be mitigated by albedo enhancement.  As well, the inertia in the fossil fuel economy means it has the power and interest to ignore climate science.  Improving the GHG situation is only possible in the long term.  Trying to accelerate emission reduction creates division and antagonism while achieving nothing for actual cooling. By contrast, albedo enhancement can support commercial and community interests in political and economic and environmental stability and security.

 

It is important not to subordinate climate policy to the old fashioned socialist idea that building a popular front of progressive forces is the only way to achieve change.  Climate stability and repair can be achieved through negotiation across partisan lines to gain broad support for net zero heating as a policy goal.  That will require intergovernmental support for sound governance of measures to increase planetary albedo.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

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[H simmens]

Hi Maiken,

If you study the websites of Scientists Rebellion (SR) and Extinction Rebellion (XR) you will see a vague and almost incoherent analysis of the dilemma that we are in and the necessary actions to get out of it. 

SR speaks of the need for decarbonization at the required scale, whatever in the world that means. It also demands degrowth with the rich to pay for degrowth, however in the world that would work.  

Extinction Rebellion has a number of a long-standing demands articulated as far back as 2018. They call for governments to tell the truth, for citizen assemblies to be created by governments to essentially take over the decision making process and for net zero by 2025.  

XR  is essentially violating its own first demand to tell the truth in calling for decarbonization in two years. (when they first called for decarbonization in 2018 at least there was the longshot possibility of getting close to zero in less than a decade with emergency scale action.) 

There is of course no conceivable pathway to decarbonize in two years without total planetary economic collapse, poverty, chaos, and death.  Yet they have yet to modify or drop the demand. 

Neither SR or XR appear to even demand carbon removal, much less direct Climate cooling as Robert indicated. 

I have had conversations with numerous people in XR in the US and the UK over the years (I marched in two of the major XR actions in London several years ago) to no avail. 

Paradoxically while they highlight the term rebellion in their very titles, they refuse to date to accept any climate remedies except the mainstream ERA model - emission reductions alone. Thus they refuse to challenge the increasingly flawed paradigm that governs planetary climate action. What kind of rebellion is that?

 I expect to have an opportunity to speak with one of XR’s most prominent public leaders who expressed interest in cooling before too long, and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that there will finally be greater receptivity to a broad based climate triad approach. 

I’m not familiar with Last Generation. 

Hope this helps. 

Herb

Herb Simmens

@herbsimmens

Author A Climate Vocabulary of the Future 

“A Sciencepoem, an Inspiration, A prophecy, also hilarious. Dive in and see.” 

- Kim Stanley Robinson

Author The Ministry For the Future 

On Jun 26, 2023, at 10:07 PM, rob...@rtulip.net wrote:



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[Achim Hoffmann]

Hi Maiken:

I am still following the German news-flow from the UK (I left Germany in '97), I have heard of Letzte Generation and there are similar organisations in the UK like "Just Stop Oil" and "Insulate Britain" using the same public disruptive methods. Last Generation were the ones that targeted various paintings with soup and the usual highway blockages. Cameras are always out to make sure they get the clicks, some turning to celebrity status, while other headlines are around people dying in Ambulances because they got stuck in protests where someone glued themselves to the highways.

My personal view on all of this, similar to the Greta phenomenon, it is initially an important wake-up call, an event that made people listen and some action was taken. Over time and without any new acceleration towards a tangible and doable goal, this has limited probability of success. This is not like the massive accelerating events that brought the Wall down in Germany, "die Wende" in 1989, again a people driven event, but with real people who had a very clearly defined goal and a path on how to get there. 

If you look at the list of demands of these groups, they rank from redistribution of wealth and turning parliamentary democracy into something else more socialist. I have not seen anything in terms of realistic, disruptive and thought through solution proposition from them. What I can see now is that these types of activities antagonise more people than they make them think, which is not helpful.

I do understand the feelings of help- and hopelessness many go through, I went through that myself. First it was with COVID (which the Scientists thankfully solved for now), but at the same time I suddenly realised that the Climate topic was very similar: A massive threat to our lives where we are all racing towards the cliff, with some of us realising that we need to stop but are caught up in the mass momentum. You look at the mess and you think: I can see it, why can't those in power see it and "do something about it". What can I, as the 1 person, do? 

Everybody is different, has different skill sets and I can only encourage you to look at these skill sets, the strengths, which can be knowledge, charisma, network etc.. Focus on your strength and then look at the big problem, break it down to smaller sub-problems and find the one area where you skill-set could make an impact.

I can only describe my own personal journey, which is working for me: 

1) I Identified what I am NOT: I am not the protesting type of person, I don't like massive crowds - they make me feel claustrophobic. I also don't agree with some of the views and methods of the protesters. I have no experience in politics, lobbying and how to make the big decision makers do what I think is right. (However I am currently reading a good book on this topic by Simon Sharpe: 5 times faster).

2) I identified my own skills, my already exsiting strengths. My skills are in Water Science, Engineering and Building Start-ups. 

3) Chop up the Elephant: I broke the climate problem down to sub-problems, similar to the "Minto Pyramid Principle" (I was trained in this one and it has served me well over the years as it provides clarity of thinking, a structure).

4) Identify the overlaps between your strengths and the problems. 

5) I then started with the highest overlap in the pyramid (the higher the bigger the problem, but also usually more complex to attack) and explored how the problem is currently being tackled and if I can think of better ways doing this. If it is dead end, work yourself down the pyramid. 

In my case, I realised that NetZero is scientifically the right way to approach the root cause of the problem, but that science is not in control of the timelines. Geopolitics are, an area I have little skill. We need to reduce GHG emissions which is where the majority of efforts are already on the way and also have to remove them from the Atmosphere and the oceans, an important area where geoengineering techs like CDR/DAC are slowly scaling with many technical hurdles at the moment (I met the Climeworks guys last week), it is slow.  

I then looked at the next level in my pyramid, which were the symptoms of GHG, e.g. heat and ocean acidification. With heat I realised more than 90% of global warming is in one single medium, water,  our Oceans - the energy equivalent of 750 years of our current global primary energy use accumulated over the last 100 years and we are adding 20 years every year.

That is when my life changed and I found my purpose: Cool down the Oceans.  It is where my skills matched the problem. That "Eureka" moment happened about 2.5 years ago and I left my job beginning of last year to fully focus on this work. On my journey, I found others who share a similar  view about Cooling vs NetZero, my link to PRAG, HPAC etc. even though I am a fringe act as the majority of the Cooling focus is on SRM.

I chose the business building route, as that is my strength where I have my networks and also have some credibility (which helps with opening doors). For me it is the lower dependence on (usually slow) governmental decision making and policies that makes it attractive. A must-have was a business model with a break-even point as that will make it "Bankable" and with that scalable.  I am about to raise a Seed stage funding round based on my home-lab proof of concept work over the last 2 years. 

This is just one example, but I hope it helps to think your own situation through. The protest path is always there, however I think there are other more impactful pathways available to many individuals, if they just take a step back and think about it in a structured way. What I can guarantee is that it is a lot more satisfying in terms of how it handles those feeling of hope- and helplessness. You put yourself in charge. 

Hope it helps a bit and good luck.

Achim

[Victor Smetacek]

Wow Achim, that was wonderful! May I share your enlightening, hope-giving email with the Scientists for Future group at the Alfred Wegener Insitute in Bremerhaven, Germany?

With my best wishes to all,

Victor

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From: 'Achim Hoffmann' via Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: 27 June 2023 10:00
To: Planetary Restoration

Subject: [prag] Re: [geo] Re: Ocean heat is off the charts—here's what that means for humans and ecosystems around the world

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[Chris Vivian]

All,

 

See these links for more pictures of the temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic/North Sea:

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2378819-uk-and-ireland-suffer-one-of-the-most-severe-marine-heatwaves-on-earth/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/19/marine-heatwave-uk-irish-coasts-threat-oysters-fish-high-temperatures

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/20/europe/marine-heatwave-north-atlantic-climate-scn-intl/index.html

 

Chris.

 

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Ron Baiman

Sent: Monday, June 26, 2023 5:29 PM
To: Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Eelco Rohling' via NOAC Meetings <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>; Healthy Climate Alliance <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>; geoengineering <geoengi...@googlegroups.com>
Cc: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Shaun Fitzgerald <sd...@cam.ac.uk>; Clive Elsworth <Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk>; Robert Chris <robert...@gmail.com>

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[Achim Hoffmann]

Hi Victor:

You are more than welcome to use this. In hindsight I realised I missed the piece about younger people and what they can do about it given they might not yet have a skill-set tool-box. For them the message is: learn, and learn fast and focussed. Focussed on the problem in hand, focussed on the problem they care about and focussed on the tools/subjects that will make a difference solving the problem. Learning provides confidence and credibility  to go out and do something about it. It has never been as easy to learn as today will all the sources and connection out there. 

I just had a quick look at the institute and I potentially coudl use your help, but will reach out separately.

Achim

[Ron Baiman]

Dear Colleagues,

In relation the last sentence in the excerpt from a quote in the Guardian piece that Chris shared:

"Piers Forster, a professor of climate physics at the University of Leeds, said: “Both Met Office and NOAA analyses of sea-surface temperature show temperatures are at their highest ever level – and the average sea-surface temperature breached 21C for the first time in April. These high temperatures are mainly driven by unprecedented high rates of human-induced warming.

“Cleaning up sulphur from marine shipping fuels is probably adding to the greenhouse gas driven warming.  ...  "

A bunch of us (in forums and communications within the groups in the lists above) have been discussing a potential immediate practical step (that earlier has been raised by others) that may provide at least a modicum of cooling especially over the oceans: a relaxation of the "bunker fuel" sulfur content regulations that just came into effect in 2020 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/01/shipping-fuel-regulation-to-cut-sulphur-levels-comes-into-force ) for inter-port "high seas" shipping. The idea is that cargo ships and tankers would be able to use the old dirty sulfur laden fuel in the open ocean but switch to the cleaner fuel when they are near ports or human habitation. Apparently many ships have multiple fuel tanks so that they may be able to switch fuels in transit.

To be clear, we would stress that we fully support getting off of fossil fuels, but if fossil fuels are going to be used anyway it makes no sense not to at least benefit from fossil fuel burning maritime sulfur aerosol generation that is known to have a significant cooling effect (how much is currently being re-estimated using the "termination shock" signal from the 2020 abrupt change in sulfur emissions due to the regulation).  Looking forward this also points the way to including effective (and hopefully less harmful to human health) tropospheric aerosol generators in future non GHG emitting replacements for the bunker fuel (see the HPAC direct climate cooling petition for some possible options: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yHe2Fe6fU11odfcH-4GwdYDNTCk7uB-J/view?usp=sharing ). 

Any thoughts or data on this that might be helpful in working up (or not) this proposal would be appreciated.  I will repost under a separate heading to better publicize and solicit feedback.

Best,

Ron