Weather extremes gripping US bear climate crisis ‘fingerprint’

[John Nissen]

Hi Oren and everyone,

It's not so much the fingerprint of global warming but of even more rapid Arctic warming, which reduces the temperature gradient between pole and lower latitudes, thereby reducing the energy driving the jet stream wave eastwards round the planet. The wave is tending to meander more and stick in position for longer. Global heating then intensifies the stuck weather in the case of droughts, heatwaves and floods, as observed in the US and elsewhere.

There is a plea to use all measures to reduce this trend. We claim the trend can actually be reversed by refreezing the Arctic using SAI. Emissions reduction will do next to nothing.

Cheers John 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-n.ews/2026/mar/22/climate-crisis-march-extreme-weather

[John Nissen]

Hi Alan,

Thanks for your input.

You point to a terrible positive feedback, as the meandering jet stream has the effect of warming the Arctic and further decreasing the Arctic to tropics temperature gradient. The end result could be a seasonally ice free Arctic or worse. We could require even more cooling of the Arctic to reverse this process and prevent tipping point catastrophe.  I don't know that the climate models used by Doug MacMartin take this feedback into account in their calculations for subpolar SAI injection to reduce the Arctic temperature, so I am copying this to him.

Cheers John 

On Wed, 25 Mar 2026, 2:16 pm Alan Gadian, <ala...@gmail.com> wrote:

John, 

A meandering jet stream often with associate blocking structures increases the meridional heat flux from the hot equator regions to the cooler poles. 

The heat flux has two elements, sensible heat flux ie warm dry  air of temp T and latent heat flux ( so called) which is the movement of water vapour ( qv) which releases latent heat when condensation occurs.  The nature of the circulations on N and S hemisphere are different .

Further freezing the poles will not affect the meridional heat flux very much, ie will do next to nothing as well . It is the overly warm sub tropical equator regions will just be as hot, even hotter than ever because increase Temps leads to increased water vapour which leads to further greenhouse warmer , the current increase of 2C is approx equivalent of double co2.  Co2 emission caused warming is no longer the major problem in my view. 

There are lots of other dynamic subtropical process ( eg Madden Julian Oscillation ) which are important.  What the hxxx low level subtropical cloud cover is occurring ( reducing the planets albedo).  It is complex and not understood. 

Returning sea weed to its preindustrial levels, even in 10% of the oceans,  will remove Co2, even if of emissions continue( which i hope they will not). There is no known way of removing H2O.   The earth is passed its sweat spot and SRM of some kind is 

Aria has given 58 million to a chemical engineer to do MCB experiments and 80 million to look at tipping points lead by cambridge ( who also don’t do meteorology ). So the uk research aircraft has been closed down ( 30 staff)  and NCAS is on its very last legs ( another 100staff in peril) , so don’t expect much from the UK.  Aria is pleased it is funding overseas research groups whilst uk scientists are sacked. All a mess, but meteorology looks a dieing science in the uK, but more importantly who is going to look at these increasingly important questions?

Alan 

T ---

Alan Gadian, UK

Tel: +44 / 0  775 451 9009 

T ---

On 25 Mar 2026, at 11:04, John Nissen <JohnNis...@gmail.com> wrote:



[Paul Klinkman]

I'm an inventor of mechanical engineering and civil engineering devices related to climate, but I'm also inquisitive about climate change theories.  So, please let me try to nose around and poke a hole in something here.

 

> The heat flux has two elements, sensible heat flux ie warm dry  air of temp T and 

> latent heat flux ( so called) which is the movement of water vapour ( qv) 

> which releases latent heat when condensation occurs.  

Is purely vertical latent heat flux a major factor in regional greenhouse temperatures?  Often  the Amazon Basin at the equator hits a high of 30 degrees Celsius and the Sahara Desert well north of the equator hits a surface high of 50 degrees Celsius,  Conventional wisdom says that the Amazon Basin has more cloud cover, but how does the Amazon shed so much of the solar heat that does reach its surface?  Why doesn't the heat just build up in any rain forest as it does in any desert?

is the temperature discrepancy because purely vertical latent heat transfer is moving the heat straight up as high as 15 kilometers, into the stratosphere, where the newly relocated heat energy is now above 90% of all atmospheric greenhouse gases?  At this great altitude, given a certain unit of time, does far more of the heat radiate farther off into space and so it becomes gone, rather than heat staying at ground level in the desert and radiating back down onto the ground?   High in the stratosphere, the earth's insulating blanket is pretty thin, a threadbare and chilly insulating blanket if you might wish for a more human description for the insulative effect.

Vertical latent heat transfer is noteworthy because a mole of H20 molecules will mass 18 grams, 16 grams for the one oxygen atom and one gram each for the two hydrogen atoms.  A mole of H2O-free air molecules averages 29 grams because air is roughly 80% N2 atoms and 20% O2 atoms.  So, 24.5 liters of moist air will have less mass than 24.5 liters of dry air, and currents of moist air will rise in the atmosphere if temperatures are equal.  That's how thunderstorms happen.

H2O is a greenhouse gas, but what if it's equally a heat-dumping transfer system on much of planet earth?  This theory of latent heat transfer nfluences at least some of my climate-restoring mechanical inventions.  It will also influence the science behind creating tiny sea salt particles and then wishing against hope that they will rise into the planet's stratosphere for you.  

Yours in Hope,

Paul Klinkman 

[Alan Gadian]

John, 

A meandering jet stream often with associate blocking structures increases the meridional heat flux from the hot equator regions to the cooler poles. 

The heat flux has two elements, sensible heat flux ie warm dry  air of temp T and latent heat flux ( so called) which is the movement of water vapour ( qv) which releases latent heat when condensation occurs.  The nature of the circulations on N and S hemisphere are different .

Further freezing the poles will not affect the meridional heat flux very much, ie will do next to nothing as well . It is the overly warm sub tropical equator regions will just be as hot, even hotter than ever because increase Temps leads to increased water vapour which leads to further greenhouse warmer , the current increase of 2C is approx equivalent of double co2.  Co2 emission caused warming is no longer the major problem in my view. 

There are lots of other dynamic subtropical process ( eg Madden Julian Oscillation ) which are important.  What the hxxx low level subtropical cloud cover is occurring ( reducing the planets albedo).  It is complex and not understood. 

Returning sea weed to its preindustrial levels, even in 10% of the oceans,  will remove Co2, even if of emissions continue( which i hope they will not). There is no known way of removing H2O.   The earth is passed its sweat spot and SRM of some kind is 

Aria has given 58 million to a chemical engineer to do MCB experiments and 80 million to look at tipping points lead by cambridge ( who also don’t do meteorology ). So the uk research aircraft has been closed down ( 30 staff)  and NCAS is on its very last legs ( another 100staff in peril) , so don’t expect much from the UK.  Aria is pleased it is funding overseas research groups whilst uk scientists are sacked. All a mess, but meteorology looks a dieing science in the uK, but more importantly who is going to look at these increasingly important questions?

Alan 

T ---

Alan Gadian, UK

Tel: +44 / 0  775 451 9009 

T ---

On 25 Mar 2026, at 11:04, John Nissen <JohnNis...@gmail.com> wrote:



[Alan Gadian]

John,

As for a seasonal free Arctic.  I think by 2035 ( or earlier, but unlikely) the north pole in September will be ice free ( by that i mean less than 15% broken ice).  I am a little on a limb here, but…. 

There will be lots of changes by then. 

1. I believe the AMOC could break down by then, but probably 2050.  It will bring storm tracks further south and   scotland ( North of Glasgow / Edinburgh ) cooling by. 4-10C with not many trees around. 

2. I wrote to Starmer last week about the chagos islands and Mr Trump.  The Chagos islands are may be ~ 4m above sea level .   I suggested he tell Mr Trump that i estimate with sea level rise and a good tropical storm the runway could well get flooded in the not too distant future. Further I suggested a lease for 30 year, certainly not more than 50 years at the maximum!  On monday I received a message from PM’s office thanking me for the message … but i doubt hecwould have been passed it on!!!

The whole point is by 2030  ( definitely. by 2036 as Lovelock said) we should see some interesting and unexpected extremes

Thanks

Alan 

T ---

Alan Gadian, UK

Tel: +44 / 0  775 451 9009 

T ---

On 25 Mar 2026, at 17:18, John Nissen <JohnNis...@gmail.com> wrote:



[Paul Klinkman]

As of this month, at the start of the sunny season Arctic ice extent is perhaps 1.5 million square kilometers short of normal, and it's nowhere near the previous record low, way into uncharted territory.  We could see record ocean heating all spring and record low ice extent this August, quite the head start on the year 2035.

https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

Yours,

Paul Klinkman

[John Nissen]

Hi Paul and Alan,

It is disturbing to see that Arctic sea ice volume measurements have been discontinued, thanks to Trump.  But the extent is still shown [1] [2] and has been at a record low for the time of year.  This adds to the risk of delaying SAI deployment.  The optimum deployment strategy is not obvious, but Doug MacMartin and colleagues are working on it.

Cheers, John

[1] https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

[2] https://www.carbonbrief.org/very-alarming-winter-sees-arctic-sea-ice-hit-record-low-for-second-year-running/

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[Alan Gadian]

John 

The volume is the critical measurement.  

Alan 

T ---

Alan Gadian, UK

Tel: +44 / 0  775 451 9009 

T ---

On 31 Mar 2026, at 20:46, John Nissen <JohnNis...@gmail.com> wrote: