Redraft of email to Prof Brian Cox

[Rebecca Bishop]

Dear PRAG friends, 

Please see below redrafted email to Professor Cox, thanks again for your comments.

On reflection, I think it keeps things simple not to include Chris Packham, a BBC TV naturalist (he was mentioned as an alternate person to ask by Peter Wadhams).  This morning I thought the email could be sent to both people and in principle I would also like to ask Chris for help.   Can we send him/her a similar email?

Any further comment welcome before I send it to Brian Cox.  Please see last section in yellow - I'd like some UK contacts, please.

Thank you everyone,

Rebecca Bishop.

*******************************

Dear Professor Cox,

Greetings to you for 2023.

I'm writing as a member of the Planetary Restoration Action Group [PRAG], a group of scientists, engineers, inventors, public policy people and community activists from across the world: https://planetaryrestorationaction.group

We are interested to see that you have an upcoming presentation "Horizons: a 21st Century Space Odyssey" to be shared in various European cities in 2023, after successful tours of the UK, US and Australia.  It is so heartening that you will share an optimistic vision of our future based on scientific advances, if we explore nature with humility and value ourselves as humans, and the fellow creatures we share this earth with.  It is also wonder-filling that you help people explore the deep questions and develop their knowledge of black holes, time and the universe.  Speaking as an Australian, we are glad you have experienced our night sky and the powerful Siding Spring Observatory.   We, as a nation, are starting to learn from the Australian First Nations science of connection with mother earth, embedded in their living culture for at least 60,000 years.

In the spirit of your presentations we would like to ask for your help with shaping strategy and actions on climate change, which is the immediate crisis preceding all others in importance.  

We are concerned that most public campaigns are focused on achieving "net zero emissions" in the belief that this can limit the increase in global warming to a level manageable  for humans and other creatures.   Keeping below the Paris COP 1.5°C is proving impossible and 2°C could be breached within a decade or two on the current trajectory.  

Some key facts that are not generally understood are firstly, there is a large stock of extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, since the industrial revolution, and these will cause warming until they are removed;  that is, it's not enough to reduce annual emissions to net zero, we also need to remove extra CO2equivalent gases.  Secondly, melting of the polar sea ice is increasing human-induced global warming, as the earth absorbs more heat.  The arctic is now warming at 3 to 4 times the global mean rate.  We are close to a tipping point when it will become much harder, if not impossible, to return to a planet that is human and creature-friendly.

A recent paper by James Hansen and 14 other scientists may prove to be a turning point in scientific understanding.  They argue that with the committed warming from past emissions, the equilibrium temperature (eventual temperature) could be as much as 10C if we rapidly decarbonise the world’s economy;  reference Bit.ly/Hansen-arXivDec22.  

Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates.  Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone -- after slow feedbacks operate -- is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010 because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping. Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years...

Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years. The enormity of consequences of warming in the pipeline demands a new approach addressing legacy and future emissions. The essential requirement to "save" young people and future generations is return to Holocene-level global temperature. Three urgently required actions are: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) purposeful intervention to rapidly phase down present massive geoengineering of Earth's climate, and 3) renewed East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs.

We in PRAG think the goal for planetary restoration should be to return to the norms of Holocene temperature, ice cover and climate.  We think this is possible if we add three additional goals to the goal of achieving zero net emissions, with suggested short-term targets to indicate the extreme urgency for cooling intervention.   Our suggested strategies are:

• Refreeze the Arctic (halting Arctic warming within 5 years)
  
• Cool the rest of the planet (halting global warming and glacier retreat within 10 years)
  
• Reduce atmospheric CO2equivalents (getting it below 280 ppm within 30 years). 
  

The message of hope is that there are technologies (such as Marine Cloud Brightening and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection) which together promise a capability for refreezing the Arctic and cooling the planet more generally, in a benign way.  Such technologies have been resisted by those supporting the strategy of emissions reduction as ‘the solution’ to climate change.  Since this strategy is failing to reverse tipping processes in the Arctic and elsewhere, the climate community needs now to embrace the additional focus on cooling intervention.  Furthermore, there are divisions and fears in both the climate community and the wider public.  Consistent with Professor Hansen and others, we are reframing both the causes and the solutions.  In essence, humans have arrived at this place through uncontrolled geoengineering, being the large increase in CO2e gases, and some careful, thoughtful geoengineering is necessary to get us out of the predicament. 

Our request to you is to help with finding focus and support for this change in direction, for example:

• assembling the range of information into a cohesive story that humans need to do different things, specifically planetary brightening as a short term measure to buy time
  
• helping prepare for intergovernmental cooperation on testing of solar radiation management, to brighten and hence cool the planet 
  
• preparing initial test cases for marine cloud brightening and an evaluation and public feedback strategy
  
• preparing the groundwork for stratospheric aerosol injection, the other main technology to manage solar radiation
  
• anything else you may recommend.

We have assembled a number of resources to explain both the issues and the solutions, but we are concerned that time is running out to add the new strategies.  Moreover, because we take seriously the need to have workable and testable technologies, much of our time is spent on technical matters, and we acknowledge we are not expert in strategy or communication.  Finding the right information for the various audiences is a challenge, and currently (we feel), many are afraid of the new technologies and are focusing on "net zero" in the belief the Paris Accord is enough.  I hope public fears can be nurtured to become trust and hope, with good scientific information, but there is still a gap in understanding.  

In addition to a solid scientific, evidence-based story of the potential solutions, humanity will need leadership to change course.  We take heart that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process could become a seedbed for public support of these additional strategies.  This group of committed scientists has helped humanity recognise we must act.  Over the years, both carbon removal and geoengineering have been considered, but they have not received public or governmental support as yet.  Due to the accelerating climate crisis, we would like to influence public opinion initially outside the IPCC  process.   One of its drawbacks is its size; it’s hard to do anything decisive in a forum which represents every country.  However, once the consensus changes and it's recognised that cooling the planet is both possible and urgent, the IPCC may be relevant as a forum for scientific and consciousness-building work.

We would be pleased to send you further information and resources but first we would like to establish your interest and availability, or other suggestions you may have to develop our campaign.

We have a number of members in the UK and you may prefer initially to discuss things with our members ...  contact and email addresses.    We are aware that there are some institutions already working on this approach, specifically the Cambridge Centre for Climate Repair.  

So we are still hopeful that together humankind can return our planet to a climate where we can flourish, and develop, and learn to live in harmony with other creatures.

Your sincerely 

Rebecca Bishop,

Sydney, Australia

Selected references   in addition to information on the PRAG website    https://planetaryrestorationaction.group/

Reflecting Sunlight to Reduce Climate Risks:  Priorities for Research and International Governance. Stewart M Patrick, US Council on Foreign Relations, April 2022  https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/Patrick-CSR93-web.pdf

Article on the potential of solar radiation management: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/with-mitigation-climate-change-research-should-add-solar-geoengineering/   

Reflections on Ice: Why we need to urgently cool the planet.  Video presentation by Doug Grandt, PRAG member, April 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iojaSF5t3MA

Why Increasing Albedo is more urgent than removing greenhouse gases for climate policy.  Video presentation by Robert Tulip, Convenor PRAG, August 2022   https://youtu.be/MzZDDjHYAnk

Why Geoengineering is now urgent, interview on the ABC Science Show with Robert Tulip, 29 October 2022 https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/geoengineering-now-urgent/101589282

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Dear Rebecca

 

Many thanks for this superb initiative.  I really like how you have expressed your own understanding of the PRAG analysis in reaching out to such an influential figure as Dr Cox.

 

The main substantive concern I have is with the call to “Reduce atmospheric CO2equivalents (getting it below 280 ppm within 30 years)”.

 

Some members of PRAG may support this extreme level of ambition, and I have myself supported it in the past, based on the idea of a total transformation of the world economy through new carbon conversion technologies. However, my approach has always been that climate ambition has to be expressed in terms of political realism.  I do not think that achieving 280 ppm by 2053 is remotely possible, which means that calling for it is politically unwise.  Such a revolutionary call fits more in the realms of ideology or science fiction than realistic science and politics.  I think it is reasonable to call for 280 ppm this century, not within 30 years.  How I think about this is that responding to the momentum and inertia of both economic and political processes requires clarity of focus, and our PRAG focus is on shifting attention to our call to brighten the planet.  A call for 280 by 2053 diverts this focus to something that is impossible, diminishing the attention and oxygen needed for our very realistic and urgent call for albedo enhancement. 

 

Issues that arise in this context include that we need to recognise that in important respects brightening the planet is a substitute for greenhouse gas removal in the short term, and that achieving climate goals requires a practical and incremental approach to political systems.  That has to involve both a support for reconciling political opposites, and a recognition of the importance of climate justice and equality.  Many would regard combining those political objectives as unrealistic, but I see it as necessary, and far more realistic than the call for immediate transformation involved in extremely rapid decarbonisation and CDR.  Brightening the planet buys time for a slower carbon transition.

 

On other points, you have repeated a sentence in your quote from Hansen,( “Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years”) and you should include the link https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 rather than the bitly link.

 

This is a great letter, but I fear it is on the long side for Brian to read, so you might like to review if every word and point is essential to the message, and ensure the key message about the need to brighten the planet is up front.

 

Best Regards

 

Robert Tulip

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