Re: [HPAC] Air pollution cuts in East Asia likely accelerated global warming

[John Nissen]

Hi Renaud,

I find the paper to which the article refers [1] rather less informative than I would like, having puzzled over the diagrams for a long time.  However the first reference in this paper contains a useful discussion of an observed acceleration in sea surface warming in relation to the EEI, see abstract [2].  The conclusion in the last sentence about the urgency for action is correct, but I believe that only SRM can achieve what is needed.  I would argue with Christopher and the other authors from the University of Reading that deep cuts in emissions are necessary for the long-term future of humanity, but that only cooling intervention can avoid heating getting out of hand with catastrophic consequences this century affecting everyone on the planet.

Cheers, John

[1] Samset et al 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02527-3

[2] Merchant* et al (ERL, Jan 2025)

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a

Abstract

Global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) is a fundamental diagnostic of ongoing climate change, yet there is incomplete understanding of multi-decadal changes in warming rate and year-to-year variability. Exploiting satellite observations since 1985 and a statistical model incorporating drivers of variability and change, we identify an increasing rate of rise in GMSST. This accelerating ocean surface warming is physically linked to an upward trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). We quantify that GMSST has increased by 0.54

0.07 K for each GJ m^–2 of accumulated energy, equivalent to 0.17 ± 0.02 K decade^‒1 (W m^‒2)^‒1. Using the statistical model to isolate the trend from interannual variability, the underlying rate of change of GMSST rises in proportion with Earth’s energy accumulation from 0.06 K decade^–1 during 1985–89 to 0.27 K decade^–1 for 2019–23. While variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation triggered the exceptionally high GMSSTs of 2023 and early 2024, 44% (90% confidence interval: 35%–52%) of the +0.22 K difference in GMSST between the peak of the 2023/24 event and that of the 2015/16 event is unexplained unless the acceleration of the GMSST trend is accounted for. Applying indicative future scenarios of EEI based on recent trends, GMSST increases are likely to be faster than would be expected from linear extrapolation of the past four decades. Our results provide observational evidence that the GMSST increase inferred over the past 40 years will likely be exceeded within the next 20 years. Policy makers and wider society should be aware that the rate of global warming over recent decades is a poor guide to the faster change that is likely over the decades to come, underscoring the urgency of deep reductions in fossil-fuel burning.

*Christopher Merchant c.j.me...@reading.ac.uk

National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

On Tue, Jul 15, 2025 at 8:10 AM Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://phys.org/news/2025-07-air-pollution-east-asia-global.html 

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[Tom Goreau]

Shouldn’t there be a + in the abstract gap between lines?

 

SRM is essential if coral reefs are to be saved, those claiming emissions reductions alone are sufficient are sentencing reefs and low coasts to execution by boiling and drowning.

 

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc., Blue Regeneration SL

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)

 

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

https://www.routledge.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration-and-Reversing-CO2-Increase/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392

 

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734

 

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

 

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

 

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

 

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

 

“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer

 

“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips

 

“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky

 

 

 

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