Re: Reminder: The next NOAC meeting is today: Monday 18th September (Aus: Tue 19th, 6am AEST)
John Nissen
Hi everyone,
The fear of the “climate fix” is very real, as enunciated by Robert Chris at yesterday’s meeting who said it was bound to fail. Denoting SAI (stratospheric aerosol injection) as a fix is a value judgement against it. In the past, adaptation was considered as a distraction from emissions reduction: a kind of fix. Now we accept adaptation and the general public accept that global warming, at least as far as 1.5C, is inevitable. The exponential growth in extremes of weather and local climate is studiously ignored by climate scientists as being too scary for public consumption.
Thus much focus of environmental study is on finding crops which can adapt to higher temperatures. The scientists supporting the emissions reduction alone (ERA) strategy don’t want to know that SAI is low risk, especially for cooling the Arctic; they don’t want the experiments that would show that it is low risk; they don’t want to listen to the experts who argue that injection of SO2 at 50N for refreezing the Arctic is extremely low risk*. They want to continue asserting that SAI is high risk, as stated in the Royal Society’s report of September 2009 [1]. Some of the same people who wrote this report continue to promote the idea that SAI is high risk, and have built their careers on this assumption. This assumption is taken for granted by those indigenous peoples who believe that any interference with nature must be bad.
What about the dangers of not geoengineering or delaying it? It is generally realised among climate scientists that there are tipping points in the Arctic: but they don’t want to know about the processes at work; they don’t want to know how serious the repercussions will be by allowing continued meltdown; they don’t want to know that ERA has no hope of saving the Arctic; they don’t want to know the huge risk of global catastrophe they are placing on the young people of today; they don’t want to know that SAI could do the job of reversing the tipping point processes by refreezing the Arctic.
How do we fight for reality against all this denial and wilful blindness? I suggested we could make a documentary film but who would find it? We certainly need to harness some constituency of the world population to promote our cause. Our best hope may be in certain enlightened young people of today, as exemplified by the Arctic Momentum group.
However there is so much momentum for ERA that I think we should not attempt to discredit it, but rather promote cooling intervention as a parallel "repair" strategy for immediate safety from tipping point catastrophe while the ERA strategy continues to be relevant for long-term sustainability. A strategy of enhancement of life in soils and oceans could promote biodiversity and productivity. Together these strategies could restore the planet to a safe, sustainable, biodiverse and productive state, for the future well-being of young people all over the world.
Cheers, John
*P.S. Objections to SAI continue to be raised by individuals within our groups. Yesterday the issue of longevity of the SO2 was raised; but I pointed out that, with injection at 50N, the lifetime of SO2 is only a few months since Brewer-Dobson takes the SO2 out of the stratosphere down to the troposphere in that time.
[1] Royal Society (September 2009)
Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty
https://royalsociety.org/~/media/royal_society_content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf
Hi everyone,Here's the chat.Doug Grandt to You (Direct Message) 21:04
Agent item #2 - Hear hear
Bru Pearce to Everyone 21:07
Sorry I am getting called away have to go and make a pick up. Hope to re-join later.
Dr Brian von Herzen to Everyone 21:23
Which article?
Robert Tulip to Everyone 21:26
Climate Overshoot Commission Report https://www.overshootcommission.org/
Dr Brian von Herzen to Everyone 21:31
Report link?
Thanks
Robert Tulip to Everyone 21:32
Brian - just go to the link I gave and scroll down one screen for the report
Robert Chris to Everyone 21:38
Neoliberal capitalism is in its death throes but the successor model is very unlikely to be anything that looks like \Soviet communism.
Hugh Hunt to Everyone 21:40
Here is a report from Sept 2023 by Operaatio Arktis, a Finland youth group. All about Climate Repair. They have written a much better thing that the Overshoot Commission:
https://www.operaatioarktis.fi/_files/ugd/b0f58b_96b487a826a84aae9d7a3b96bb80f048.pdf
Robert Tulip to Everyone 21:41
Robert, part of the problem is that geoengineering is perceived precisely as a means to enable no systemic change. I use "communism" as shorthand for the idea that we must immediately shut down the fossil fuel industry.
Hugh Hunt to Everyone 21:45
https://www.operaatioarktis.fi/en
Shaun Fitzgerald to Everyone 21:49
Apparently there is evidence indicating that proposing geoengineering actually strengthens the resolve of some people to push harder on emissions reduction ... completely opposite to the Moral Hazard
Robert Chris to Everyone 21:50
If you watch the recording of Lamy's press conference, make a note of his body language as he answered Morton. This was a man telling his audience what he thought they wanted to hear, not telling them what he knew he should tell them.
Shaun Fitzgerald to Everyone 21:50
The argument being the reaction to "You're considering doing that?!!! My goodness - I will work even harder to reduce the impetus requiring that.
Herb Simmens to Everyone 21:52
https://groups.google.com/g/healthy-planet-action-coalition/c/tA5t_ZrRFI4
That link above should be for the HPAC meeting with Chris Field on Thursday at 4:30 PM EDT
Robert Chris to Everyone 22:01
Polluting unwittingly is fine because no one is responsible for the harm - everyone is doing it. Putting up aerosols deliberately makes you liable for exposure to any harm it might create. Unless you can be very confident it won't cause any harm that could be attributed to your aerosol emissions, you won't take the risk of having to compensate for the harm. Science saying that the harm will be minimal, if any, will always be subject to uncertainty, particularly in advance of any empirical evidence, and that uncertainty will be a further impediment to action. This is not about science, it's about money.
alex porter to Everyone 22:04
Thank you. I will remember to raise my hand next time.
Shaun Fitzgerald to Everyone 22:09
I need to leave v shortly
Herb Simmens to Everyone 22:10
the Overshoot Comm should have articulated a simple message - 1.5 is all but impossible, the latest science is that multiple catastrophic tipping will likely activate at 1.5 or even lower and certainly well below 2 C. This eventually is absolutely unthinkable and unacceptable this extraordinary measures including direct climate cooling are required….
Shaun Fitzgerald to Everyone 22:11
CCR is hoping to be involved in a number of events at COP28. I think we already have some events on more standard topics of emissions reductions and greenhouse gas removal. But looking at how we might get public conversations on beyond these.
I would ask Chris Vivian for help on how to navigate IMO
John Macdonald to Everyone 22:23
1.5° was never a safe,scientific limit. It was a political limit.
Shaun Fitzgerald to Everyone 22:24
John you are right. But even that isn't fully understood by us all.
Cheers folks. Good to see you. I need to head out now. But my message of hope is that geoengineering is a potential route to buy us time to get GHG levels down ... and we should get to grips with whether we can do this urgently. We haven't actually proven we can do it - but we need to get on top of the challenge.
Herb Simmens to Everyone 22:32
Compared to US TV networks British television is light years ahead of us on the climate crisis
We need to find just one financial angel to finance a muscular international entity to promote cooling…
Herb Simmens to Everyone 22:37
They are also financed by Silver Lining…
Hugh Hunt to Everyone 22:38
download it here
https://www.operaatioarktis.fi/_files/ugd/b0f58b_96b487a826a84aae9d7a3b96bb80f048.pdf
John Macdonald to Everyone 22:40
Kelp is faster
Hugh Hunt to Everyone 22:40
Anni's talk - she's 22 years old:
https://youtu.be/0It_xZnLdyo?si=oHpZcyDEk3veFvcPCheers, JohnOn Mon, Sep 18, 2023 at 8:50 AM Clive Elsworth <Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk> wrote:All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings. NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
Anyone at the start can suggest something for the agenda. You could:
- ask a question,
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We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 18th September (Aus: Tue 19th, 6am AEST)
• 1 pm PT (USA)
• 4pm ET (USA)
• 4pm VET (Venezuela)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
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Last Meeting:
Agenda
Chris V – ARIA: Advanced Research and Innovation Agency (New in the UK)
Robert T – Arctic Momentum conference (Last week in Finland)
John M – Upwelling along the AMOC?
Clive – How can new clouds form?
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nueDmIZpbTQ&t=957s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Chat
21:17:30 From Robert Tulip : https://www.operaatioarktis.fi/en/arctic-endgame
21:51:03 From Oswald Petersen : I am afraid I have to go. Thanks for an interesting talk!
22:29:41 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Tapio Schneider Caltech
22:30:43 From Clive Elsworth : https://pubs.aip.org/physicstoday/article-abstract/74/6/44/817123/Accelerating-progress-in-climate?redirectedFrom=fulltext
Contact Details and Past Meetings
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NOAC consensus document awaits your input from Sev: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e6i61Zpy0XI5Dw8gMqZ4_A0o6intOLgp/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114954647783797253223&rtpof=true&sd=true
Previous meeting
Agenda
Anton, Bruce – NOAC website
Bru – three cheers to Ecuador
Chris – Climate Arks falls under London protocol amendment,
- Concepts on how it might be used.
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBm18kHT9OM&t=1251s
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Clive Elsworth