References on the state of the Arctic
John Nissen
Hi all,
Our Arctic Emergency Report Card needs good references. I found these, both from The Conversation, quite helpful [1][2]. We need to collect others. Please help.
BTW, I noted from [2] that there is an annual report on the state of the cryosphere for us to follow up.
Cheers, John
[1] "Extreme melting episodes are accelerating ice loss in the Arctic"
https://theconversation.com/extreme-melting-episodes-are-accelerating-ice-loss-in-the-arctic-272114
Greenland has been most severely impacted. It is home to the largest ice reserve in the northern hemisphere, which holds enough water to raise sea levels by more than seven metres, and its geographical location makes it particularly sensitive to atmospheric patterns that trigger extreme melting.
Recent summers in Greenland have seen some of the most intense episodes ever documented – in July 2012, August 2019, and August 2021, more than 90% of its surface was simultaneously in a state of melting, in some cases surpassing paleoclimatic records.
[2] Earth's frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change
“We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice.” That’s the message from more than 50 leading scientists who study the Earth’s frozen regions, published in the latest annual State of the Cryosphere report.
In the past year alone, the vast polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are likely to have shed around 370 billion tonnes of ice, with a further 270 billion tonnes from the 270,000 mountain glaciers around the world, some of which are disappearing altogether.
In February 2025, global sea ice extent reached a new all-time minimum in the 47-year satellite record. Elsewhere, perennially frozen ground (called permafrost) continues to thaw, releasing additional greenhouse gas emissions each year that are roughly equivalent to the world’s eighth-highest-emitting country.
The warning lights from the cryosphere have been flashing red for several years, and governments ignore this at their peril.
Melting ice is driving an acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, which has doubled to 4.5mm per year over the last three decades. If this acceleration continues, sea-level rise will reach around 1cm per year by the end of this century – a rate so high that many island and coastal communities will be forced to move.
The loss of mountain glaciers will affect billions of people who rely on their meltwater for agriculture, hydropower and other human activities; and the damage caused to infrastructure by Arctic permafrost thaw has been estimated to cost US$182 billion (£137 billion) by 2050 under our current emissions trajectory.
In an effort to reduce the risks and effects of climate change, including those from the cryosphere described above, the Paris climate agreement was adopted by 195 countries at the annual UN climate summit in 2015, with the aim of limiting “the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.
Its implementation should be based on and guided by the “best available science”. That includes evidence provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group created by the UN to provide governments with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.
This guiding principle was strengthened by the International Court of Justice in July 2025, which reaffirmed 1.5°C as the primary legally binding target for climate policies under the Paris climate agreement.
Yet recent climate negotiations, including at the UN climate summit in Brazil in November 2025 (Cop30), have seen some countries – largely fossil fuel producers – push back on previously standard language endorsing the IPCC as a source of the “best available science”.
As cryosphere scientists who regularly attend the UN’s climate summits, we have noticed recent efforts to downplay, confuse and dilute some of the latest scientific findings, especially from the cryosphere. We find this alarming.
At Cop30, observations about the complete loss of glaciers in two countries (Slovenia and Venezuela) were removed from the final draft text. Other shocking scientific findings about “irreversible changes to the cryosphere” were diluted to a rather vague “need to enhance observations and address gaps in the monitoring of the hydrosphere and the cryosphere”.
This tactic to obfuscate the science is not new, but has been increasingly used over recent years, during which the indicators of climate change and its consequences on the cryosphere have become increasingly obvious to scientists.
At Cop30, climate negotiators from several countries expressed disappointment and concern that the role of the IPCC as the best available science was not highlighted alongside some of the more alarming scientific findings, with an intervention from the UK capturing this frustration.
John Nissen
State of the Cryosphere Report 2025
Ice Loss = Global Damage
Current unambitious climate commitments, leading the world to well over 2°C of warming, spell disaster for billions of people from global ice loss, but that damage can still be prevented, according to an assessment released today.
Latest research detailed in the 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report notes thresholds likely at just 1°C of warming for the stability of the polar ice sheets, and even lower temperatures for many glaciers. The Report also notes that the most proactive climate pathways, also released today (Nov. 6 2025), can bring down temperatures below 1.5°C by 2100 and below 1°C next century – but only if reductions begin immediately.
Key findings include: Slowing sea-level rise to a manageable level requires a long-term temperature goal at or even below 1°C. Staying even at current warming levels of 1.2°C will likely lead to several meters of sea-level rise over the coming centuries, potentially exceeding coastal adaptation limits. The European Alps, Scandinavia, North American Rockies and Iceland would lose at least half their ice at or below sustained global temperatures of 1°C, and nearly all ice at 2°C. Sea ice at both poles has declined year-round, and combined Arctic and Antarctica sea ice extent hit its lowest area ever in February 2025. Ocean acidification has passed critical thresholds in the Arctic and parts of the Southern Ocean, with some regions reaching non-survivable levels for shelled life. Permafrost is now confirmed as a net source of carbon emissions, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere than these ecosystems can absorb.
Reviewed and supported by over 50 leading cryosphere scientists, this is the latest report in the State of the Cryosphere series, which takes the pulse of the cryosphere on an annual basis. The cryosphere is the name given to Earth’s snow and ice regions and ranges from ice sheets, glaciers, snow and permafrost to sea ice and the polar oceans – which are acidifying far more rapidly than warmer waters. The report describes how a combination of melting polar ice sheets, vanishing glaciers, and thawing permafrost will have rapid, irreversible, and disastrous impacts worldwide.