http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-24/floods-in-southeast-asia-may-cause-food-shortages-un-says.html
By Luzi Ann Javier
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The United Nations is closely monitoring the
potential for “serious food shortages” in parts of Southeast Asia
after flooding devastated rice paddies and other crops and as aid
deliveries are disrupted.
About 12.5 percent of rice farmland in Thailand has been damaged,
along with 6 percent in the Philippines, 12 percent in Cambodia, 7.5
percent in Laos and 0.4 percent in Vietnam, as storms hit the region
since September, the UN Food & Agriculture Organization said in a
report dated Oct. 21. “There are concerns of serious food shortages in
the affected communities due to the difficulties in delivering food
assistance.”
Crop losses may help sustain a 20 percent rally in rice futures in
Chicago this year, adding pressure on food costs and creating more
problems for government leaders across Asia, where the grain is the
main staple, said Lynette Tan, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte. The
UN Food Price Index of 55 commodities, including cereals, meat and
dairy, rose to a record in February.
“We expect rice prices to propel higher, climbing a wall of worry
underpinned by strong physical demand,” Tan said from Singapore today.
Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, was forecast to account
for 31 percent of the 34.2 million metric tons of global trade of the
grain this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Vietnam is the second-largest shipper, according to the USDA. Cambodia
was the third-largest exporter in Southeast Asia, while the
Philippines was the largest buyer last year, according to the USDA.
Prices Jump
Rough-rice for January delivery climbed 3 percent to $17.215 per 100
pounds at 2:42 p.m. Singapore time, the highest price for a most-
active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade since Sept. 21. The
export price for the 100 percent grade B Thai white rice, the
benchmark in Asia, gained 1 percent to $625 per ton on Oct. 19, taking
this year’s advance to 13 percent.
Thailand may lose 6 million tons of rough rice from flooding, paring
the main harvest to about 19 million tons, Apichart Jongskul,
secretary-general of the Office of Agricultural Economics, said Oct.
21. The damage estimate does not include rice in warehouses that have
been submerged, he said.
The country’s main harvest, which typically accounts for 70 percent of
annual production, was projected by the farm ministry at 25.8 million
tons before the floods.
Infrastructure Damage
Floods have inundated more than two-thirds of the country, causing
loss of lives, damage to crops and livestock, closure of factories and
severe damage to infrastructure, the FAO said in the e-mailed report.
In Bangkok, residents are stocking up on water, canned food and
instant noodles as Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said a “huge
amount” of water is flowing into Bangkok due to a broken water gate on
the city’s outskirts. Further north in Ayutthaya, families struggled
to find food and potable water in floodwaters that reached neck high.
The Philippines lost almost 600,000 tons of milled rice from typhoons
that struck the country this year, Lito Banayo, administrator of
National Food Authority, said Oct. 20. That’s equal to almost 17 days
of demand, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on the national
daily consumption.
About 16 percent of the nation’s paddy production was lost to
flooding, and at least 485,000 hectares (1.2 million acres) of land
planted with the grain, corn and high-value crops damaged, while
almost 3.3 million head of livestock and poultry were affected, the
FAO said.
In Cambodia, which was forecast by the USDA to ship 1 million tons of
rice this year, the FAO said 1.2 million people were affected by
flooding that destroyed homes and damaged paddy fields. Before the
flooding, Cambodia was forecast to increase production by 7.2 percent
from a year earlier, to a record 8.9 million tons this year, FAO said.
--Editors: Ovais Subhani, Jake Lloyd-Smith