Fwd: INDIA : How Did the Muslim Vote?
Firoz Kamal
From: Firazath Hussain <hussain...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2024, 18:21
Subject: Fwd: INDIA : How Did the Muslim Vote?
To:
INDIA : How Did the Muslim Vote?
Despite being the target of the Prime Minister’s public speeches and facing continuous discrimination, the Muslim voter has voted in support of saving the Constitution and India’s democracy.
By Fuzail Ahmad Ayyubi
https://thewire.in/politics/muslim-vote-lok-sabha-election
Tuesday’s results have put to rest all speculations which were looming with the exit polls predicting from 350 to even 415 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance and from as low as 96 to over 182 for the INDIA bloc parties.
However, the final figures have been astronomically far from all the exit polls and predictions of poll pundits such as Prashant Kishor. The INDIA bloc has not only been able to set up a united and cohesive opposition to the NDA but has also been successful in preventing the BJP from even attaining a majority by itself, let alone the much advertised target of 370 seats for the BJP.
While it is no doubt true that with the vigour of ‘UP ke ladke’, combined with the political acumen of leaders such as Sonia Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Sharad Pawar, M.K. Stalin and Arvind Kejriwal, the INDIA bloc has scripted a history of its own kind in unmasking the bogey of the “strong” government as had been the bugle for the past two elections. However, another evident trend coming out from voting patterns of different constituencies is that the common voter’s faith in the constitution and the Indian democracy has not dwindled, especially the Muslim voter which has forever been blamed for voting on religious lines resulting in a divided ballot in multipolar contests.
This was perhaps the first election in that manner, since 1952, when the Indian Muslim has voted for saving the constitution as well as India’s democracy – and beyond religious affiliations.
In my home state of Uttar Pradesh, and as several news reports point out, tickets by INDIA bloc in many Muslim-majority constituencies were given to non-Muslim candidates keeping in mind the strategic needs of the respective constituencies and yet, the INDIA bloc has seen a consolidated support from the Muslim voters despite presence of Muslim candidates on the tickets of other parties such as the BSP, which previously has resulted in a split in Muslim votes. Samajwadi Party’s lead of over a lakh votes in seats like Moradabad where ST Hasan, the incumbent Lok Sabha MP was dropped at the last moment, has clearly not bothered the Muslim voter.
Why this voting pattern assumes importance is because historically the Indian Muslim – the third largest Muslim population in the world and more than 14% of India’s population – has been underrepresented in both houses of the parliament, but more so in the Lok Sabha. As Snigdhendu Bhattacharya points out for The Diplomat, proportionately speaking there ought to have been around 75 Muslim MPs in the parliament whereas the number of Muslim MPs in the past six elections had been 29 (1998), 32 (1999), 36 (2004), 30 (2009), 23 (2014), and 25 (2019). While Bhattacharya attributes twin reasons for this underrepresentation – not fielding enough Muslim candidates and divided ballot in multipolar contests – this election has, at the very least, seen the latter cause being eliminated even if at the altar of worsening the former. In other words, while Muslims would continue to be underrepresented in the Lok Sabha, the Muslim vote has seen a massive consolidation undeterred by the INDIA bloc dropping Muslim candidates in several constituencies.
The assembly elections, however, largely remain based on local issues while the Lok Sabha elections are a major platform for testing this consolidation which has evidently held positive results for the Indian Muslim this June 4. The Lok Sabha elections historically have seen the Muslim vote being divided by either multiple Muslim candidates or parties’ tendency of doling out religiously favourable phraseology and promises in their speeches. In Assam’s Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency, Rakibul Hussain – the INDIA candidate from the Congress – has won by around ten lakh votes against AIUDF’s Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, a leader whose party is based in the Muslim identity politics.
Three takeaways:
The biggest takeaway therefore has to be the Muslim voter’s disapproval of such religious issues or Muslim faces in the fray. If time has taught the Muslim voter anything it is that brooding over issues of lesser Muslim candidates was not an option available when a larger effort for saving the constitution is being made. Any success of the INDIA bloc would in this manner have an undeniable role of Muslim voters casting their choice on positive lines in favour of the alliance and not for religious considerations whatsoever. Whether it be Moradabad or Dhubri, the Muslim voter has rallied behind the INDIA alliance and has not been distracted by other issues.
The second takeaway is that despite being the target of the Prime Minister’s public speeches, which referred to Muslims as those who have more children – a notion debunked by many – and facing continuous discrimination, the Muslim voter has voted in support of saving the Constitution and India’s democracy.
During this election, there have been moments when statements could have sparked hurt sentiments or protests. However, the Muslim voter has wisely ignored such provocations and remained largely non-reactive. Additionally, Muslim voters have moved beyond considerations of co-religionist candidates, voting en masse to uphold the idea of India and its democratic legacy. In doing so, they have played a crucial role in this democratic process, setting aside notions of divided voting patterns and religious biases.
The third, an extension of the two above, is the reason for such decisive and consolidated voting. While the undercurrent was set by events like the enactment of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA) and the ever-famous ‘chronology’ connecting it to the National Register of Citizens (NRC), which resulted in the Shaheen Bagh protests, the Muslim voter has taken a cue from the ongoing political events.
It is only natural that, with issues ranging from the CAA to the Uniform Civil Code enacted in Uttarakhand, the hijab issue in Karnataka, and the question of essential religious practices, all aimed at Muslims, they have no choice but to become more politically conscious. This voter awareness is on the rise, it is only going to increase in future elections. A community once seen as indifferent to affairs of the state has stood out in participating in the entire process of democracy. It has been the emerging pattern that Muslim-dominated areas have seen good turnouts, solidifying their trust in the democratic functioning of this country by voting as a more aware and conscientious stakeholder.
Fuzail Ahmad Ayyubi is a Supreme Court Advocate-on-Record.