[IRF] The Somaliland Paradox and Ramifications of Territorial Fragmentation
Muziru
By Osman Softić || 19 January 2026
The sudden recognition of a breakaway but thus far internationally unrecognized Somalia’s province of Somaliland by the genocidal regime in Tel Aviv clearly indicates that a new “strategic abnormality” is being shaped in the Horn of Africa, which creates added complications to international relations in this volatile and critical region. Principle of indivisibility of post-colonial borders of states that achieved formal independence after the withdrawal of European colonies from Africa, it seems, is no longer unquestionable rule. This principle had been respected for more than half a century.
Following the collapse of European empires and the rise of the USA, during the so-called “cold war” between the two superpowers, the USA and the Soviet Union, a large number of kinetic armed conflicts, albeit proxy wars, had occurred across the decolonized the so-called third world (Africa, Asia, and Latin America). Slow process of geographical fragmentation of the world with the emergence of new nation postcolonial states has not stopped to this day. Moreover, this process has intensified in recent years, especially in Africa. Therefore, belief in the principle of the inviolability of borders in an absolute sense is naive thinking which no serious state strategy should rely upon as a guarantor of territorial integrity.
Somaliland
The Somaliland case is the most recent indicator of this process in a strategically most significant part of Africa. Regional analysts see it as a danger of a “cascading collapse” that, in combination with state weakness, internal conflicts and external interference, could engulf a significant part of Africa. The genocidal regime in Israel is the first entity to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state. The Netanyahu regime did it for a series of strategic and geopolitical reasons and calculations. Its decision is driven by ambition to position itself in close proximity to Yemen so it can plot and plan how to weaken the Ansarullah movement, the Houthis which control the large swaths of northern Yemen, including its capital Sanaa and a majority of population centers. The Houthis of Yemen are still actively resisting the Israeli genocide in Gaza. Furthermore, Israel is also motivated by geoeconomic goals and ambitions in Africa as it seeks expansion of the so-called greater Israel project.
Somaliland is an autonomous region that unilaterally seceded from Somalia 34 years ago (in 1991) at a time when civil war erupted in Somalia, prompted by the suppression of rebellion against the dictatorial communist regime of Siad Barre. Somaliland, a substantial territory larger than peninsular Malaysia) is not insignificant and has irreplaceable strategic value. For the most part, after the collapse of the cold war, it has generally been a peaceful and stable entity within the Somalian Federation. With 6 million inhabitants, Somaliland has a functional and democratically elected parliament, its own currency, flag, army, police, and other symbolic elements of statehood. The province’s population is mostly made up of members of the Isaaq ethnic group, one of five major Somalia ethnicities of the Sunni Muslim mazhab. The New York Times once described this province an “oasis of relative peace in a region ravaged by conflicts”.
The reasons for Somaliland’s secession go back several decades. Namely, toward the end of the 1980s of the last centuries, a former Somali communist dictator and leader of ruling military junta, general Siad Barre (Mohammed Ziyad Bariyy), who ruled Somalia for two decades (1970-1990), launched a systematic campaign of extermination of members of the Isaaq clan (ethnic group) in Somaliland. The Isaaqs (who made up a sizable part of rebels against his dictatorship) during the independence war to gain autonomy from Somalia (1987-1989). It was a genocide that claimed over 200,000 lives and completely destroyed the state. The regime used aviation, the army, and the navy to raze Somaliland’s cities to the ground. Wells were poisoned, critical infrastructure bombed, civilians killed while fleeing, rape and starvation used as methods of war, a naval blockade imposed, a 15-year state of emergency, and more than a million landmines placed in civilian areas.
According to a U.S. State Department report, during the campaign of the Somali regime’s army against the Somali National Movement (an anti-government rebellion based in the northeast of the state with a large share of Isaaqs), people were, as in Bosnia (1992-1995), killed because of their ethnic affiliation and identity. It is really astonishing that today the inhabitants of Somaliland rejoice in Israel’s recognition and are seeking to enter into a strategic alliance with the genocidal Zionist regime in Tel Aviv, which over the past two years has been committing genocide against the Palestinians (the genocide which still continues albeit with reduced intensity), in which the Israeli regime used identical methods to those used by Barre’s regime against the Isaaq people in Somaliland. This is a truly mind-boggling paradox hard to fathom rationally.
Barre died in exile in Nigeria in 1995. Initially, he was a client of Moscow but later switched to the western block for which he was financially rewarded by the US Reagan administration with $ US 100 million in aid annually. Nevertheless, he still maintained close ties with Romania and China. Supporters of Somaliland’s independence claim that the international community at that time passively watched the massacre of the people in Somaliland. Characteristically, Israel, proven a genocidal state, apparently at that time advocated that Barre’s crimes be made known to the world via the UN Security Council.
This move by Israel, which the inhabitants of Somaliland characterize as “brave” remained etched in the collective consciousness of Somaliland’s inhabitants. At that time, the UN took no measures to prevent the massacre. The UN, claimed Somalilanders narrative, denied Somaliland’s right to exist as an independent state while supporting a “non-functional and failed state” of Somalia. Recognition proponents accused the international community and the UN in particular for “caring more about preserving unsustainable colonial borders than about protecting human lives or respecting the democratic will of the people”.
The recognition of Somaliland
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence was condemned by most countries, the UN, the African Union and the EU. Moreover, Israeli recognition is perceived in some circles as a synchronized Israeli-Emirati strategy aimed at establishing a strategic stronghold in the Red Sea region and the Bab al-Mandab Sea passage. It is highly implausible that the two states (Abrahamic allies almost universally seen as disruptors of regional order) were acting autonomously. This would be a great delusion. The Iranian press in particular warned that this move undermines not only Iran’s security but also the security of Egypt and the Muslim world in a broader sense. It is also an attempt at permanent encirclement of Saudi Arabia and Iran by Israel and its western sponsors.
Israel behaves as a regional gendarme while serving its own and western interests in the Arab world and parts of Africa never acts alone and in isolation. This is evidenced by the fact that Nigel Darroch, former British ambassador to Washington and an advisor to the British prime minister on national security, recently called for the recognition of Somaliland’s independence. Nigel Darroch (today Lord Darroch) is apparently closely connected to the British political establishment in London. He is an expert on “security, international stabilization, and institution-building in conflict zones.” In addition, he is a member of the Council of Chatham House for international relations, an influential British non-governmental foundation for global policy and strategy, which some consider the informal shaper of British foreign policy. Moreover, his position also reflects the stance of the British parliamentary Group for Somaliland, which includes members of leading parliamentary parties.
The group is chaired by former defense minister Gavin Williamson. In June 2025 this group published a report titled “Path to Recognition.” The report presented strategic, economic, and moral arguments for Somaliland’s independence. Thus, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is just a trial balloon released by imperialist centers of power in the West, but the idea of disintegrating Somalia, comes from Israel’s mentors in the West (yet another argument in support of the thesis that Israel does not control Western policy but vice versa).
The U.S. President Donald Trump refused to say whether Washington will follow Israel’s example and recognize Somaliland The Washington lobby consisting of numerous American lawmakers (members of Congress) and members of the Somali diaspora community believes that recognizing Somaliland as a “successful exception”, in comparison to the “chronic weakness and dysfunctionality of the Somali central government”, would help strengthen geopolitical stabilization in the turbulent Red Sea region and strategically important Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Furthermore, in June 2025, American Republican congressman from Pennsylvania, Scott Perry, a retired brigadier general of the U.S. army, proposed to the U.S. Congress the adoption of a law on “Independence of the Republic of Somaliland”. The bill calls for formal U.S. recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. However, some American research centers close to the US establishment, think tanks such as the Atlantic Council and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) are somewhat cautious. Their researchers advocate for a careful and measured approach and do not support hasty American recognition.
Trump’s restraint is obviously a reflection of precisely these views coming from informal architects of American foreign policy. However, international relations analyst who specializes in conflicts and recognition of states, professor James Ker-Lindsey from London’s LSE University, believes that it could be a matter of time before Trump’s administration would recognize Somaliland’s independence, pressured by Israeli imperatives and the need to curb China’s influence. China has its only military base in neighboring Djibouti. In his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and the Moroccan sovereignty over the occupied Western Sahara, contrary to international law. However, such a move could cause serious consequences and might plunge the entire region into a vortex of new wars.
The Yemeni factor
The Saudi missile strike conducted on 30th December on a shipment of military equipment and vehicles in the southern Yemeni port of Mukalla may have also been prompted by Israeli recognition of Somaliland. The shipment arrived from the UAE and was intended for the Yemeni rebels acting under the auspices of the secessionist “Southern Transitional Council” (STC). Former Saudi ally suddenly turned against Riyadh’s interests. The Saudi-backed internationally recognized government of Yemen and its armed forces have been at odds with Emirati/backed STC for a while now. This conflict between former anti Houthis allies signals a major change in the Yemeni civil war equation. UAE backs STC which advocates for an independent South Yemen.
With the unification of Yemen, it would stretch 1500 km along the coast. It would be controlled or at least influenced by Abu Dhabi. Across the waters, in Somalia, Israel hopes to establish its footing in Somaliland. Some observers dubbed it a “new Azerbaijan”, a reference to cozy ties between Israel and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, from which territory Israel launched drones and fomented unrests and regime change operations within Iran, and quite plausibly executed assassination of the former Iranian president and foreign minister who died in a helicopter crash two years ago on their return from Azerbaijani border.
Israel would be in a position to influence South Yemen and provide military protection to the Southern Transitional Council regime supported by the UAE should a new state be declared in the south of Yemen in the foreseeable future. Israel and the UAE (known as a little Sparta on the Arabian Peninsula) whose military had been until recently commanded by a seasoned Australian special force retired general Michael Simon Hindmarsh, would be well-placed to encircling Saudi Arabia as well as Iranian allies, Ansarullah movement (Houthis) which leads the de facto government of Yemen. What Israeli strategic thinkers proposed was replicating an Azerbaijani model in Somaliland, so that they can establish commanding heights over the Bab el-Mandeb Sea passage, encircle Saudi Arabia which thus far has been stubbornly refusing to sign on to the “Abraham Accords”, and prepare for aggression against Iran and its allies in the region.
The parallel state
Although unrecognized, since 1991, Somaliland has existed as a parallel state alongside Somalia of which it is a part. It is, therefore, a de facto parallel state that the central federal government in Mogadishu does not control. However, Somaliland’s stability compared to the rest of Somalia is deliberately exaggerated precisely because it so suits regional sympathizers of independence who for decades maintained parallel economic, military, and strategic relations with this part of Somalia while formally respecting Somalia’s sovereignty. Relative stability of the province is attributed to a balance and understanding among Somaliland’s tribal clans, which is fragile and belligerent in “Somalia proper.” The army, police, and security services operate under unified command and have full territorial control without factionalism and armed conflicts, the narrative goes.
Characteristically, the security forces, according to analysts’ assessments, also wage a consistent and continuous military campaign against the militant Islamist group Al-Shabaab, which they managed to neutralize. The central government in Mogadishu, unfortunately, cannot boast of successes against this group. The dynamic port in the city of Berbera has long served as a regional hub (center). Revenues from customs and trade generate independent sources of income for the regional government. Somaliland also boasts a functional banking system strengthened by economic influence of the Somaliland diaspora. In principle, the inflow of money from Somaliland citizens in the diaspora is the most significant factor that enables budget balancing because it most helps the functioning of the local economy.
The mood in favor of acceptability of Somaliland’s independence is evidenced by intensified activities of publications from western research centers, media, and promotion of Somaliland as an attractive and safe tourist destination on social media by western influencers. Also, diplomatic circles increasingly discuss a potential collapse of the Somali federal state and the “dysfunctionality of its central government”. The most banal example of demonization of Somalia as a state are evident in viral videos on various social media and internet platforms that mock the national Somali airline and similar comic contents. Surely, it is not about spontaneous action, rather it is a synchronized campaign whose goal is to produce hegemonic acceptance of a necessity of independent statehood for Somaliland, because it so suits the most sinister regional interests of Israel and the UAE and their mentors in the West.
Fragmenting Somalia
In other words, the central authority in Mogadishu is routinely criticized for chronic instability, prevailing corruption, excessive reliance on foreign donors and lack of effectiveness in confronting armed non-state actors (Al-Shabaab). In that context, not only Somaliland but also other federal units of Somalia, such as Puntland and Juba land, are presented as “islands of stability” amid widespread “national chaos”. All this points to a deliberately targeted strategy of fragmenting Somalia whose sovereignty does not suit the interests of some regional and global players. They see in the fragmentation of this state the only way for successful positioning on the Horn of Africa, which is increasingly becoming the epicenter of important geopolitical and geoeconomic competitions among leading powers in the world and a region that represents a key southern hub between Asia, Africa, and Europe.
Under the guise of talking about Somaliland’s stability the interests of various geopolitical projects and alliances of states gathered around them clash. The UAE, China, and Saudi Arabia use Somaliland as an economic lever and as a primary instrument of influence in the region. The UAE has invested large capital in Somaliland’s ports and logistics. The strategically important port of Berbera is managed by DP World, a multinational logistics company headquartered in Dubai, formed in 2005 and specialized in logistics, cargo operations of port terminals, maritime services, and free trade zones. China promotes broader stability for implementing the “Belt and Road” initiative and invests in infrastructure and energy projects. Saudi Arabia is focused on trade, especially livestock. It finances humanitarian and social programs. Although the mentioned states have no conflict of economic interests they do not act in coordination nor do they have a common strategy and identical goals. Hence, they cannot be considered a coalition. What compelled them towards close cooperation with Somaliland is a chronic weakness of Mogadishu central government whose nominal legitimacy and territorial unity of Somalia they do not question. Rather, they use it as leverage to obtain favorable conditions for economic expansion.
On the other hand, Turkey, Qatar and Great Britain form an ambitious block of countries focused on Somalia as a whole. They accept institutional separation of Somaliland which they perceive as a reality that cannot be denied. These states want a stable and controllable sphere on the Horn of Africa and in the Red Sea region but do not want to miss the advantages of Somaliland’s logistical potential. This coalition (still in the process of consolidation), wants to shape regional policy and want to outmaneuver traditional players, USA, UAE, Saudi Arabia and China. Therefore, it should not surprise us that a number of influential media have recently emerged in London that are financed by Qatar. These media are by definition antagonistic toward the policy of Abu Dhabi and even Riyadh. Great Britain relies on historical ties, diplomatic support and influence through the UN and other international institutions. Turkey, on the other hand, operates through infrastructure, upgrading ports and airports, establishing military presence, training military personnel and setting up bases. These are complemented by cultural and economic influence and humanitarian, cultural, and religious projects.
Qatar, a financial giant, supports infrastructure and humanitarian investments, shapes media and information influence by way of using soft power. It also acts as mediator and negotiator to strengthen alliances with political establishment and clans in Mogadishu. This influential triad looks deeper and beyond towards Ethiopia. This large and important state, after the declaration of Eritrea’s independence, was denied access to the Red Sea, strategic loss perceived in Addis Ababa as nothing short of a national and strategic catastrophe. Access to the sea is therefore an existential imperative for Ethiopia’s future. Somaliland represents a realistic corridor to the sea. Ethiopia is reportedly ready to recognize Somaliland in exchange for access to the port of Berbera.
This, however, raises concerns for Egypt and a tiny Djibouti, which earns 1.5 billion US dollars in transit fees from Ethiopia for its port and logistical services. However, Ethiopia is in a dilemma. If it embraces Somaliland’s independence it will have to face its own internal separatist tendencies in several regions (Tigray being just one of many). Ethiopia risks its own fragmentation should it follow the access to the sea logic alone maintaining internal territorial integrity. The unanswered question remains as to why is recognition and an alliance with Israel important to the people of Somaliland despite the fact that Israeli regime used identical methods in Gaya genocide identical to those former dictator Siad Barre’s regime used against the Isaaq Muslim people during the Somaliland’s war of independence more than three decades ago?
Osman Softić is a Research Fellow at the Islamic Renaissance Front. He holds a BA degree in Islamic Studies from the Faculty of Islamic Studies of the University of Sarajevo and has a Master degree in International Relations from the University of New South Wales (UNSW). He contributed commentaries on Middle Eastern and Islamic Affairs for the web portal Al Jazeera Balkans, Online Opinion, Engage and Open Democracy. Osman holds dual Bosnian and Australian citizenship.