Future of the Baronetage

[colinp]

On 21 September last year I posted a topic on "Baronetage decline since 1965".  This was prompted by an interesting article about peerage decline over the same period in the Debretts 2015 Edition by Stephen Kershaw.  The second part of the Debretts article ("Looking Forward") dealt with the future of the peerage and I thought I would attempt something similar for the baronetage.

Stephen Kershaw assumes that virtually all peerages with no heirs younger than 40 will become extinct over the next 50 years - I'll call this category 1.  He then identifies a second group (category 2) as being those with only one heir or none born after 1979 (ie under 35 when article written) and having rather shaky prospects.  He assumes that there may be a 90% reduction in Category 1 over the next 50 years and a 25% reduction in Category 2.  If we accept this hypothesis (and one can of course argue about the percentages) then by my estimate there are about 175 baronetcies (including those held by peers) in Category 1 and 215 in Category 2.  This would give reductions of 157 in Category 1 (90%) and 54 in Category 2 (25%) and a total of 211 extinctions over the next 50 years.  As there are about 1235 extant baronetcies this would be a reduction of 17% - very slightly higher than the projected fall in the number of peerages.

If we look at Category 1 in detail the breakdown is E – 14; NS – 9; I – 2; GB – 7; UK - 143 with Maxwell (NS 1681) and Synge (UK 1801) probably becoming dormant rather extinct.

The oldest baronetcies affected are: –

English - Monson (1611); Musgrave (1611); Bagot (1627)

Scottish - Johnston (1626); Sinclair-Lockhart (1636)

The full list (ie those where the youngest heir was born before 1 January 1976) is as follows with date of birth of the youngest heir and with an asterisk where the youngest heir is the baronet himself (as per the Debretts article) - and I have listed them by date of birth of the youngest heir, starting with the oldest, so they are in anticipated order of extinction, rather than alphabetically :-

MOON (UK 1887) b 1919; OPPENHEIMER (UK 1921) b 1924*; FORWOOD (UK 1895) b 1925*; STEWART (UK 1960) b 1925*; BERNARD (UK 1954) b 1926*; CAMPBELL (UK 1808) b 1927*; BLACK (UK 1922) b 1929*; GROVE (UK 1874) b 1930; GORDON (NS 1706) b 1932*; LEVER (UK 1911) b 1932*; MOWBRAY (UK 1880) b 1932*; LATHAM (UK 1919) b 1934*; BANNERMAN (NS 1682)  b 1935*; BLAKER (UK 1919) b 1935*; CUNINGHAME (NS 1672) b 1935*; HAY (NS 1663) b 1935*; LEES (UK 1937) b 1935*; LEIGHTON (E 1693) b 1935*; CLIFFORD (UK 1887) b 1936; COTT (E 1694) b 1936*; CRAUFORD (GB 1781) b 1937*; LAWRENCE (UK 1858) b 1937* Baron Lawrence; DILLWYN-VENABLES-LLEWELYN (UK 1890) b 1938*; GRAHAM (UK 1964) b 1938*; DE LA BERE (UK 1953) b 1939; DUNNING (UK 1930) b 1939*; LYELL (UK 1894) b 1939* Baron Lyell; WALSHAM (UK 1831) b 1939*; WATSON (UK 1895) b 1939*; LINDSAY-HOGG (UK 1905) b 1940*; PHILLIPS (UK 1912) b 1940*; WHITE (UK 1937) b 1940*; ASKE (UK 1922) b 1941*; GOUGH (UK 1842) b 1941* Viscount Gough; MACKESON (UK 1954) b 1941*; PIGOTT-BROWN (UK 1903) b 1941*; FAGGE (E 1660) b 1942*; SYNGE (UK 1801) b 1942* may become dormant; FFOLKES (GB 1774) b 1943*; MAXWELL (NS 1681) b 1943* will probably become dormant; PEARSON (UK 1964) b 1943*; ALBU (UK 1912) b 1944*; BAGOT ( E 1627) b 1944*; CRAIG (UK 1918) b 1944* Viscount Craigavon; FAYRER (UK 1896) b 1944*; MEYER (UK 1910) b 1944*; OHLSON (UK 1920) b 1944; TWISLETON-WYKEHAM-FIENNES (UK 1916) b 1944*; HARDY (UK 1876) b 1945*; BOULTON (UK 1944) b 1946*; CARDEN (UK 1887) b 1946*; HENNIKER (UK 1813) b 1946*; JACKSON (UK 1902) b 1946; SLADE (UK 1831) b 1946*; STRONGE (UK 1803) b 1946*; MEDLYCOTT (UK 1808) b 1947*; MYNORS (UK 1964) b 1947*; STRACHEY (UK 1801) b 1947*; WILKINSON (UK 1941) b 1947*; HORNE (UK 1929) b 1948*; MOND (UK 1910) b 1948* Baron Melchett; PRESCOTT (UK 1938) b 1948*; RHODES (UK 1919) b 1948; VERNEY (UK 1946) b 1948; BOWATER (UK 1914) b 1949*; CROFT (UK 1924) b 1949* Baron Croft; PROBY (UK 1952) b 1949*; ROBINSON (UK 1908) b 1949*; FOWKE (UK 1814) b 1950*; RIPLEY (UK 1880)  b 1950*; WRIXON-BECHER (UK 1831) b 1950*; MARLING (UK 1882) b 1951*; MUSGRAVE (E 1611) b 1951; NUGENT (UK 1831) b 1951; MACKENZIE (UK 1890) b 1952; STUART TAYLOR (UK 1917) b 1952*; BANBURY (UK 1903) b 1953* Baron Banbury of Southam; EWART (UK 1887) b 1953*; MILES (UK 1859) b 1953*; BURNETT (UK 1913) b 1954; BURTON –CHADWICK (UK 1935) b 1954*; DORMAN (UK 1923) b 1954*; FISON (UK 1905) b 1954*; TUCK (UK 1910) b 1954; FREEMAN (UK 1945) b 1955*; MOORE (UK 1932) b 1955; PILDITCH (UK 1929) b 1955*; SMITH (UK 1947) b 1955*; D’OYLEY (E 1663) b 1956*; FFRENCH (I 1779) b 1956* Baron ffrench; MILLS (UK 1953) b 1956* Viscount Mills; SAUMAREZ (UK 1801) b 1956 Baron de Saumarez; HANHAM (E 1667) b 1957*; DAWSON (UK 1920) b 1957*; FORBES (UK 1823) b 1957*; HENRY (UK 1923) b 1957*; MILLS (UK 1921) b 1957; SEAGER (UK 1952) b 1957 Baron Leighton of St Mellons; OSBORN (E 1662) b 1958*; CROSSLEY (UK 1909) b 1958*; ELPHINSTONE (UK 1816) b 1958; CROFT (UK 1818) b 1959*; MACGREGOR (UK 1828) b 1959*; MACLEOD (UK 1924) b 1959; COGHILL (GB 1778) b 1960*; DUNTZE (GB 1774) b 1960*; AUSTIN (UK 1894) b 1960; COOPER (UK 1905) b 1960*; NIVISON (UK 1914) b 1960* Baron Glendyne; STEWART-CLARK (UK 1918) b 1960; THOMAS (E 1694) b 1961*; HALL (UK 1919) b 1961; TRITTON (UK 1905) b 1961*; MONSON (E 1611) b 1962 Baron Monson; SOUTHWELL (I 1662) b 1962 Viscount Southwell; BOORD (UK 1896) b 1962; KEYES (UK 1919) b 1962 Baron Keyes; LEY (UK 1905) b 1962; ACKROYD (UK 1956) b 1964; FRANK (UK 1920) b 1964*; GREEN-PRICE (UK 1874) b 1964; ROBERTS (UK 1809) b 1964; JOHNSTON (NS 1626) b 1965; BRAIN (UK 1954) b 1965 Baron Brain; HALL (UK 1923) b 1965; JENKS (UK 1932) b 1965; MAY (UK 1931) b 1965* Baron May; AINSWORTH (UK 1917) b 1966; BOYLE (UK 1904) b 1966; CUNLIFFE-OWEN (UK 1920) b 1966*; EVANS (UK 1920) b 1966; SCOTT (UK 1913) b 1966; TRUSCOTT (UK 1909) b 1966*; WEDGWOOD (UK 1942) b 1966; TENNYSON-D’EYNCOURT (UK 1930) b 1967*; EDGE (UK 1937) b 1968; LAWSON (UK 1892) b 1968* Baron Burnham; RENWICK (UK 1927) b 1968 Baron Renwick; ROSE (UK 1874) b 1968; STOTT (UK 1920) b 1968; RANCHHODLAL (CHINUBHAI) (UK 1913) b 1969; WATSON (UK 1866) b 1969; BUCKWORH-HERNE-SOAME (E 1697) b 1970*; AGNEW-SOMERVILLE (UK 1957) b 1970*; ALEXANDER (UK 1921) b 1970; DAVIS (UK 1946) b 1970; GOOCH (UK 1866) b 1970; STANIER (UK 1917) b 1970; MACKENZIE (NS 1703) b 1971; GRATTAN-BELLEW (UK 1838) b 1971; LAWRENCE-JONES (UK 1831) b 1971; SHAKESPEARE (UK 1942) b 1971; ALLEYNE (GB 1769) b 1972; HARRISON (UK 1922) b 1972; HOUSTON-BOSWALL (UK 1836) b 1972; LACY (UK 1921) b 1972; SINCLAIR-LOCKHART (NS 1636) b 1973; ROBINSON (E 1660) b 1973; HILL (UK 1917) b 1973; NELSON (UK 1955) b 1973* Baron Nelson of Stafford; PRIMROSE (UK 1903) b 1973; SHARP (UK 1920) b 1973; CUST (E 1677) b 1974 Baron Brownlow; LEITH-BUCHANAN (GB 1775) b 1974*; BRISCO (GB 1782) b 1974; BROMHEAD (UK 1806) b 1974; COCKBURN-CAMPBELL (UK 1821) b 1974; LISTER-KAYE (UK 1812) b 1974; HERON-MAXWELL (NS 1683) b 1975; CAREW (E 1661) b 1975; BADEN-POWELL (UK 1922) b 1975 Baron Baden-Powell; BLENNERHASSETT (UK 1809) b 1975; BURBIDGE (UK 1916) b 1975; NEWSON-SMITH (UK 1944) b 1975; ROBERTSON (UK 1919) b 1975* Baron Robertson of Oakridge

Obviously this information is only as good as the information in the standard peerage books supplemented by information on blogs and websites such as this.

In Category 2 the breakdown is E – 17; NS – 15; I – 5; GB – 16; UK – 162 with Dunbar (NS 1700) possibly becoming dormant rather than extinct

Oldest baronetcies in this Category are:-

English – de Hoghton (1611); St John (1611) Viscount Bolingbroke and St John; Dormer (1615) Baron Dormer; Berney (1620); Ashley-Cooper (1622) Earl of Shaftesbury; Sebright (1626)

Scottish – Napier (1627); Sinclair (1631) Earl of Caithness; Bingham (1634) Earl of Lucan; Milborne-Swinnerton-Pilkington (1635)

The following may not actually be within this category as there are heirs whose dates of birth (according to latest Debretts) are unknown:-

Dormer (E 1615); Courtenay (I 1644) Earl of Devon; Rashleigh (UK 1831); Havelock-Allen (UK 1858); Imber-Terry (UK 1917)

The full list in this Category (ie where there is no or only one heir under 35 ie born after 31 December 1981) is:-

DICK-LAUDER (NS 1690) b 1976; CHAYTOR (UK 1831) b 1976; COCHRANE (UK 1903) b 1976; RENSHAW (UK 1903) b 1976; ROYDEN (UK 1905) b 1976; NORTON-GRIFFITHS (UK 1922) b 1976; NAPIER (NS 1627) b 1977; CHETWYND (GB 1795) b 1977; KELLETT (UK 1801) b 1977; COUPER (UK 1841) b 1977*; WALKER (UK 1906) b 1977*; LYNCH-ROBINSON (UK 1920) b 1977; PRYKE (UK 1926) b 1977; BUZZARD (UK 1929) b 1977; SEBRIGHT (E 1626) b 1978*; TROLLOPE (E 1642) b 1978; ABDY (UK 1850) b 1978*; GREEN (UK 1886) b 1978; DURAND (UK 1892) b 1978; EVANS-TIPPING (UK 1913) b 1978; VASSAR-SMITH (UK 1917) b 1978; HANSON (UK 1918) b 1978; BINGHAM (NS 1634) b 1979 Earl of Lucan; HEATHCOTE (GB 1733) b 1979; STRACEY (UK 1818) b 1979; LAWRENCE (UK 1858) b 1979; EDWARDS (UK 1866) b 1979; WATERLOW (UK 1873) b 1979; DE HOGHTON (E 1611) b 1980; ST JOHN (E 1611) b 1980 Viscount Bolingbroke and St John; BURKE (I 1797) b 1980; ROCHE (UK 1838) b 1980; TUPPER (UK 1888) b 1980; GOODHART (UK 1911) b 1980; JACKSON (UK 1913) b 1980; HOOD (UK 1922) b 1980; PLATT (UK 1959) b 1980; WALKER-SMITH (UK 1960) b 1980; SINCLAIR (NS 1631) b 1981 Earl of Caithness; SINCLAIR (NS 1704) b 1981; SHAKERLEY (UK 1838) b 1981; PHILLIMORE (UK 1881) b 1981 Baron Phillimore; PALMER (UK 1886) b 1981; GLIBEY (UK 1893) b 1981; KNILL (UK 1893) b 1981; ARTHUR (UK 1903) b 1981 Baron Glenarthur; LYLE (UK 1929) b 1981; VINCENT (UK 1936) b 1981; ROPNER (UK 1952) b 1981*; SHUCKBURGH (E 1660) b 1982; BLUNDEN (I 1766) b 1982; SHIFFNER (UK 1818) b 1982; SALT (UK 1869) b 1982; KEARLEY (UK 1908) b 1982 Viscount Devonport; MACREADY (UK 1923) b 1982; MACPHERSON (UK 1933) b 1982 Baron Strathcarron; GROTRIAN (UK 1934) b 1982; YOUNG (UK 1945) b 1982; DUNBAR (NS 1694) b 1983; STAMER (UK 1809) b 1983; LEA (UK 1892) b 1983; GOULDING (UK 1904) b 1983; RALLI (UK 1912) b 1983; BROADBRIDGE (UK 1937) b 1983 Baron Broadbridge; OAKES (UK 1939) b 1983; WHITMORE (UK 1954) b 1983; RODGERS (UK 1964) b 1983; FRANKLAND (E 1660) b 1984 Baron Zouche; JENKINSON (E 1661) b 1984; NOBLE (UK 1923) b 1984; DALRYMPLE-WHITE (UK 1926) b 1984; O’NEILL (UK 1929) b 1984 Baron Rathcavan; WHITAKER (UK 1936) b 1984; GRAHAM (GB 1783) b 1985; SIDNEY (UK 1806) b 1985 Viscount de L’Isle; LAWRENCE (UK 1867) b 1985; RENALS (UK 1895) b 1985; REDWOOD (UK 1911) b 1985; IMBER-TERRY (UK 1917) b 1985; MILNE-WATSON (UK 1937) b 1985; ONSLOW (GB 1797) b 1986; DEANE (I 1710) b 1986 Baron Muskerry; JEJEEBHOY (UK 1856) b 1986; MILNE COATES (UK 1911) b 1986; YOUNGER (UK 1911) b 1986; FRASER (UK 1943) b 1986; ROSE (UK 1872/1909) b 1986; BERNEY (E 1620) b 1987; MURRAY (NS 1673) b 1987; WRAXALL (UK 1813) b 1987; LESLIE (UK 1876) b 1987; WHITE (UK 1904) b 1987; BRUNTON (UK 1908) b 1987; KING (UK 1815) b 1988; SHAW (UK 1821) b 1988; PAUNCEFOOT-DUNCOMBE (UK 1859) b 1988; TREVELYAN (UK 1874) b 1988; NIXON (UK 1906) b 1988; HOWARD (UK 1955) b 1988; MUIR MACKENZIE (UK 1805) b 1989; THOMPSON (UK 1890) b 1989; NEWTON (UK 1900) b 1989; ROBERTS (UK 1919) b 1989; POWER (UK 1924) b 1989; GILLETT (UK 1959) b 1989; JEPHCOTT (UK 1962) b 1989; THATCHER (UK 1991) b 1989; SPENCER-SMITH (UK 1804) b 1990; PRESTON (UK 1815) b 1990; DU CROS (UK 1916) b 1990; MARSDEN (UK 1924) b 1990*; DAVSON (UK 1927) b 1990; TOUCHE (UK 1962) b 1990; ASTLEY (E 1660) b 1991 Baron Hastings; DILKE (UK 1862) b 1991; BROOKE (UK 1903) b 1991; BROOKE (UK 1919) b 1991; BIRKMYRE (UK 1921) b 1991; HAWKINS (GB 1778) b 1992; SHERSTON-BAKER (GB 1796) b 1992; HOULDSWORTH (UK 1887) b 1992; LEIGH (UK 1918) b 1992; GUNSTON (UK 1938) b 1992; MILBORNE-SWINNERTON-PILKINGTON (NS 1635) b 1993; HOLDER (UK 1898) b 1993; STUDD (UK 1929) b 1993; LANGHAM (E 1660) b 1994; HAVELOCK-ALLEN (UK 1858) b 1994; PAGET (UK 1871) b 1994; BUCHANAN-JARDINE (UK 1885) b 1994; PAGET (UK 1886) b 1994; HARMSWORTH (UK 1922) b 1994; MCLEOD (UK 1925) b 1994; DORMER (E 1615) b 1995 Baron Dormer; ELTON (GB 1717) b 1995; DARELL (GB 1795) b 1995; DAUBENY DE MOLEYNS (I 1797) b 1995 Baron Ventry; DUNBAR (NS 1698) b 1995; PETIT (UK 1890) b 1995; BIRKIN (UK 1905) b 1995; EDMONSTONE (GB 1774) b 1996; OAKSHOTT (UK 1959) b 1996; LAKE (GB 1711) b 1997; CHOLMELEY (UK 1806) b 1997; RASHLEIGH (UK 1831) b 1997; MORRISON-LOW (UK 1908) b 1997; BOWYER (UK 1933) b 1997 Baron Denham; SETON (NS 1683) b 1998; SULLIVAN (UK 1804) b 1998; GREY (UK 1814) b 1998; HAGART-ALEXANDER (UK 1886) b 1998; HUTCHISON (UK 1956) b 1998; LAMBERT (GB 1711) b 1999; BAKER-WILBRAHAM (GB 1776) b 1999; BAZLEY (UK 1869) b 1999; VIVIAN (UK 1882) b 1999 Baron Swansea; LUCAS-TOOTH (UK 1920) b 1999; ROSS (UK 1960) b 1999; SETON (NS 1663) b 2000; CAMPBELL (UK 1831) b 2000; GULL (UK 1872) b 2000; COATS (UK 1905) b 2000; LACON (UK 1818) b 2001; PRITCHARD-JONES (UK 1910) b 2001; ESPLEN (UK 1921) b 2001; BENNETT (UK 1929) b 2001; FINLAY (UK 1946) b 2001; WOMBWELL (GB 1778) b 2002; PRINGLE (NS 1683) b 2002 disputed; O’CONNELL (UK 1869) b 2003; CHITTY (UK 1924) b 2003; STUART (E 1660) b 2004; SITWELL (UK 1808) b 2004; BARRY (UK 1899) b 2004; PETO (UK 1927) b 2004; PAKINGTON (UK 1846) b 2005 Baron Hampton; GUINNESS (UK 1867) b 2005; BROADBENT (UK 1893) b 2005; DRYDEN (GB 1733) b after 2005; DRYDEN (GB 1795) b after 2005; WHELER (E 1660) b 2006; HARTWELL (UK 1805) b 2006; THOMPSON (UK 1806) b 2006; BAIRD (UK 1809) b 2006; BLYTH (UK 1895) b 2006 Baron Blyth; MITCHELL-THOMSON (UK 1900) b 2006 Baron Selsdon; HORSBRUGH-PORTER (UK 1902) b 2006; SANDERSON (UK 1920) b 2006; AYKROYD (UK 1929) b 2006; SAMUEL (UK 1898) b 2007; RYCROFT (GB 1784) b 2008; PIGOTT (UK 1808) b 2008; HODGE (UK 1921) b 2008; STOREY (UK 1960) b 2008; COURTENAY (I 1644) b 2009 Earl of Devon; HAMILTON (NS 1646) b 2009; HALL (NS 1687) b 2009; SMITH (UK 1897) b 2009; THOMPSON (UK 1963) b 2009; FITZGERALD (UK 1903) b 2010; HARVEY (UK 1933) b 2010; WELCH (UK 1957) b 2010; BARBER (UK 1960) b 2010; DUDLEY-WILLIAMS (UK 1964) b 2010; ASHLEY-COOPER (E 1622) b 2011 Earl of Shaftesbury; BAILLIE (UK 1823) b 2011; WILLIAMSON (UK 1909) b 2011 Baron Forres; DUNBAR (NS 1700) b 2011 may become dormant; PALMER (E 1660) b 2012; ASHBURNHAM (E 1661) b 2013; BURDETT (E 1665) b 2013; WATERLOW (UK 1930) b 2013; AITKEN (UK 1916) b 2014 Baron Beaverbrook; MADDEN (UK 1919) b 2014; DUNNINGTON-JEFFERSON (UK 1958) b 2015

Of course there may be gains in the number of baronetcies but these can only come about by new creations (probably unlikely now) or by a successful claim to a dormant baronetcy.  The following 14 dormant baronetcies have known male heirs who may be in a position to make a successful claim though unlikely in some cases:-

BURNETT of Leys (NS 1626) dormant in 1959 (presumed heir the Ramsay baronets of Balmain (UK 1806)

CAMPBELL of Glenorchy (NS 1625) (Earl of Breadlabane and Holland) dormant in 1995

GARDNER of Uttoxeter (GB 1794) (Baron Gardner) dormant in 1883

HAY of Smithfield (NS 1635) dormant in 1966 (presumed heir the Marquess of Tweedale)

LESLIE of Wardis and of Findrassie (NS 1625) dormant in 1967 (presumed heir the Leslie baronets of Glaslough (UK 1876)

PARKYNS of Bunney Park (E 1681) dormant in 1926

RICH of Shirley House (GB 1791) dormant in 1983

SMITH of Eardiston (UK 1809) dormant in 2000

SOMERVILLE of Dublin (I 1748) dormant in 1929

Von FRIESENDORFF of Hirdech (E 1661) dormant in 1670

STIRLING of Glorat (NS 1666) dormant in 1949

WARREN of Warrenscourt (I 1784) dormant in 2006

WOLSELEY of Mount Wolseley (I 1745) dormant in 1991

WYVILL of Constable Burton (E 1611) dormant in 1774

If we look at the number of baronets (as opposed to baronetcies ie eliminating peers and "double" baronetcies) then as well as the losses set out above there a number of losses and gains that may be likely on the above basis and bearing in mind there are about 976 current baronets:-

Losses:

GREY (UK 1814) – the current baronet (Sir Anthony Grey) b 1949 is an heir to the Earl Grey (also a baronet – GB 1746) - there is only one heir to the earldom under the age of 35 (a cousin b 1982) before it would devolve on Sir Anthony leading to the loss of a baronet.  However Sir Anthony himself only has one heir under the age of 35 (his only son Thomas Grey b 1998) before the 1814 baronetcy would become extinct and the earldom and the 1746 baronetcy would devolve on other kinsmen of the current Earl

HOBART (UK 1914) – the current  baronet (Sir John Hobart) b 1945 is the heir presumptive to the Earl of Buckinghamshire (also a baronet – E 1611) b 1944 who is married but without issue.  This (second) baronetcy is therefore almost certain to be subsumed into the earldom

NAIRN (UK 1904) – there is only one life under 35 (grandson of current baronet b 2008) before the baronetcy would devolve on the Spencer-Nairn baronets (UK 1933)

PEASE (UK 1882) – the current baronet Sir Joseph Pease was b 1927 and his only son Charles Pease b 1955 but unmarried is the only heir before the baronetcy would devolve on Baron Gainsford (UK 1916) thus it is almost certain this baronetcy would be absorbed in that barony

POLLOCK (UK 1866) – the current baronet Sir George Pollock was b 1928 and his only son David Pollock b 1959 though married is without male issue and then there are no heirs under 35 before the baronetcy would devolve on Viscount Hanworth (UK 1936) so it is possible this baronetcy would be absorbed in that viscountcy

PONSONBY (UK 1956) – the current  baronet (Sir Charles Ponsonby) b 1951 is second heir to Baron de Mauley b 1957 who is married but without issue. His heir presumptive is his younger brother Hon Ashley Ponsonby b 1959 who although married is also without issue.  This baronetcy is therefore almost certain to be absorbed into the barony.

ROPNER (UK 1904) – there are no heirs under 35 before the baronetcy would devolve on the Ropner baronets (UK 1952).  However there are no heirs to that baronetcy (the current baronet was b 1981 and is married though without issue) so the 1952 baronetcy may become extinct at which point the 1904 baronetcy would be inherited by kinsmen of the current 1904 baronet

SINCLAIR (NS 1604) - the current (11th) baronet (Sir William Sinclair) b 1979 is second heir to the Earl of Caithness (also a baronet – NS 1631) b 1948 whose heir (Lord Berriedale b 1981) is unmarried.  It is possible that this  baronetcy may be subsumed into the earldom. Sir William has no known heirs (other than the Earl of Caithness and Lord Berriedale) so the titles may become dormant.  Alternatively if Sir William remains unmarried and predeceases the Earl of Caithness or Lord Berriedale it may be either of the latter who inherits the 1604 Sinclair baronetcy.  Either way the number of baronets will be reduced by one.

Gains:

ASTLEY (E 1660) – this baronetcy is held by Baron Hastings (E 1290) b 1960 but he has only one heir under 35 (his only son Hon Jacob Astley b 1991) before the barony would go into abeyance or devolve on a female heir in which case the baronetcy would become separated from the barony although the only heirs to the baronetcy under 50 were born in 1975, 1976 and 1977 and none are married according to Debretts

BARING (GB 1793) – this baronetcy is held by Baron Northbrook (UK 1866) b 1954 and married but without male issue and there are no heirs to the barony so it seems almost certain that the barony will become extinct thus releasing the baronetcy to which there are heirs

EDEN (E 1672 and GB 1776) – the current baronet is a life peer (Baron Eden of Winton cr 1983) b 1925 and so on his death the baronetcies will be released.  However there is only one heir under the age of 35 (a grandson b 1991) before the baronetcies would devolve on Baron Auckland so there may be only the temporary gain of a baronet.

HAZLERIGG (E 1622) – this baronetcy is held by Baron Hazlerigg (UK 1945) b 1951 who has only son Hon Arthur Hazlerigg b 1987 but unmarried. There are no other heirs to the barony under the age of 50 so the barony may become extinct thus releasing the baronetcy to which there are heirs.

HICKS BEACH (E 1619) – this baronetcy is held by the Earl of St Aldwyn (UK 1915) b 1950 and married but without male issue and there is only one heir (nephew b 1998) under age of 35 preventing extinction of the earldom and release of the baronetcy to which there are other heirs.

ROTHSCHILD (UK 1847) – this baronetcy is held by Baron Rothschild (UK 1885) b 1936 who has only son Hon Nathaniel Rothschild b 1971 divorced without issue.  There is only one other heir under 35 (nephew b 1985) preventing extinction of the barony and release of the baronetcy to which there are other heirs.

VANDEN-BEMPDE-JOHNSTONE (GB 1795) – this baronetcy is held by Baron Derwent (UK 1881) b 1930 who has an only son Hon Francis Vanden-Bempde-Johnstone b 1965 who although married has no male issue.  There are no other heirs to the barony so it seems almost certain that the barony will become extinct thus releasing the older baronetcy to which there are heirs.

YOUNG (UK 1813) – this baronetcy is held by a life peer (Baron Young of Cookham cr 2015) b 1941 and so on his death the baronetcy would be released.

[colinp]

see also this more recent  analysis by Stephen Kershaw linked to the Baronetage.org website - https://www.baronetage.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Analysis1September-2017.pdf

[Henry W]

Thank you Colin - very useful to do some cross checking with my lists.

Already noticed some new titles without heirs

Croft Baronets of Cowling Hall (cr 1818)

The previous hp was Cyril Bernard Croft (b 1918) - I have not seen his death reported here, nor can I find any mention of it online. The current Baronet was born 1959, and there is little chance that an heir as his only daughter was born 2002

Sinclear of Dunbeath (cr 1704)

Was the current Baronet (b 1979, succ 2011) without an heir when he succeeded?  There is still a chance of an heir - is he married?

Stewart of Stratgarry (cr 1960)

A bit surprised by this, as there was an ha -  John Kenneth Alexander Stewart, Younger of Strathgarry (born 1961). Has he died? If he has, then the title is approaching certain extinction - the current Baronet was b 1925.

Whitmore of Orsett(cr 1954)

Became heirless earlier this year when the 3rd Baronet succeeded. Escaped being added to my list. There is some hope for it - he was b 1983, but is unm.

Williams baronets, of Bodelwyddan (cr 1798)

This escaped being added when the lists were created, and there is no hope as the current Baronet was b 1929.

[Jelena JS]

2017 m. lapkritis 4 d., šeštadienis 12:06:42 UTC+2, Henry W rašė:

Sinclear of Dunbeath (cr 1704)

Was the current Baronet (b 1979, succ 2011) without an heir when he succeeded?  There is still a chance of an heir - is he married?

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/peerage-news/2vpxiZR80ZQ

[colinp]

Henry -

CROFT - Cyril Bernard died 2007 according to latest Debretts

SINCLAIR of Dunbeath - I think the third column n the analysis should be B1981 as the second heir is Lord Borriedale, the Earl of Caithness's heir, Lord Caithness being first heir

STEWART of Strathgarry  - John Kenneth Alexander, former ha  d 2011 leaving 2 daughters acc to latest Debretts.

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[Henry W]

Thanks Colin/Jelena.

I've confirmed the deaths of the heirs with the online probate indices. (I had checked these, but only for the last few years)

I've removed Sinclair baronets from the endangered list (apologies for poor spelling earlier!)

I've also moved Pilditch and Macgregor to the list with one heir, as they each have an elderly heir according to the list.

This now puts us at 91 baronetcies without an heir (not counting peers holding baronetcies); possibly 92 if Sir Roger Moon has passed away.

[colinp]

The Kershaw baronetage list has been updated as at 1 January 2018 and is now found on baronetage.org under the page "A short history and current state".

He lists 1203 baronets (961 baronets and 242 peers) excluding Currie 1847 and Mackenzie of Glen Muick 1890.  In the case of Currie the succession seems uncertain.  In the case of Mackenzie he says the succession is "disputed" although he states that Guy Mackenzie is the 5th baronet.  I have not seen anything about the nature of the dispute.

Burkes lists (James William) Guy Mackenzie b 1946 as the current 5th baronet (as does Wikipedia and Leigh Rayment).  Debretts lists the 4th Baronet who d 1993 and says "since when the succession to the baronetcy has not been established".  The Official Roll lists the baronetcy as dormant.

The only two male descendants of the 1st Baronet in the male line are Guy Mackenzie and his younger brother Allan Walter Mackenzie b 1952.  Guy is married with 2 daughters and Allan is unmarried.  It is worth pointing out that the Mackenzie of Glen Muick baronetcy is a UK one created in 1890.  So I assume the dispute must be between the two brothers.

Guy was born, as mentioned above in 1946 but his parents were married in 1948.  Thus on the face of it he is legitimated rather than legitimate and is excluded from succession.  Why then does Burkes list him as the current baronet and why is there a dispute?  It appears his brother Allan is the rightful baronet and in fact it seems likely the baronetcy will die with him in any event.  If it were a Scottish baronetcy one could see that a legitimated person might be in succession (but I think only if he were of Scottish domicile) but this is a UK baronetcy and Guy lived in Cornwall acc to Debretts. 

I am puzzled as to why the succession is disputed  - can anyone throw some light on this?

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[Henry W]

Glad to see there is an update, and even more happy to discover that all of the heirs we discovered to be deceased have been updated - they must keep an eye on our group!

[colinp]

That's good to know - I haven't had a chance to look at it yet.

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[Henry W]

Regarding the Mackenzie of Glen Muick baronetcy:

I have been able to verify directly from BMD records that (James William) Guy MacKenzie was born in 1946 in Aberdeen, and that his parents married in 1948 in Kent. His mother had a previous marriage - she was married in 1943 (again verified directly), and according to thepeerage, they divorced in 1948.  Evidently she had another man's child whilst married - maybe they had wanted to marry, but she could not obtain a divorce? Maybe there is a bigamous marriage abroad?

https://www.mackenzie-glenmuick.org.uk/

Found the above on a google search; the pdf gives a fascinating history and confirms Guy's birth date of 1946 and his parents marriage in 1948. It appears that Guy grew up on Mull, so was Scottish domiciled in his youth at least.

http://mackenziememorial.weebly.com/a-very-special-day.html

Above gives a photo of the two MacKenzie brothers together with their sister, so clearly not on awful terms with each other.

Total speculation but I think:  Parents may be bigamously married elsewhere, or unable to marry before Guy was born; Family wanted Guy to have title as first born, so just allow him to use it even though he cannot get on the Official Roll. Brother Allan is based in the US, so probably has no use for the title there, so doesn't challenge it.

[colinp]

Thanks Henry. I did see that family history PDF on a Google search but I was on my phone at the time and didn't want to download such a large document (30 MB?).  If Guy has retained his Scottish domicile then he still has the problem that the baronetcy is a UK one and Scots Law may not apply to it.  Perhaps he is arguing that it does.  It also doesn't explain why Burkes felt able to accord him the succession to the baronetcy notwithstanding any family agreement to treat Guy as if he were the current baronet.  Perhaps the "dispute" is with the relevant authorities rather than within the family

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[colinp]

Having checked the Lord Lyon’s website and the guidance for those applying for recognition on succession to a peerage or baronetcy it appears Lord Lyon does have jurisdiction in the case of a peerage of Great Britain or United Kingdom where the title has a Scottish territorial designation. Thus it may very well be that Guy could succeed notwithstanding he was born before his parents’ marriage and that may be the basis on which Burkes has accorded him the baronetcy.

[SARA WHITE]

I know that legitimation is possible under Scottish law and that legitimated children can inherit titles, but can adulterine children be legitimated?  Perhaps that is the problem.

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From: Henry W <henryworm...@gmail.com>
To: Peerage News <peerag...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 6 February 2018, 23:03
Subject: Re: Future of the Baronetage

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[Henry W]

Regarding the Gooch baronetcy of Clewer Park

The Kershaw list indicates that the youngest heir was b 1970, but thepeerage.com has a younger heir, Cody Daniel Gooch (b 1997) (in fact son of the heir b 1970). Is there any reason to doubt that he is legiatimately in remainder?

[colinp]

thepeerage (and latest Debretts) doesn't record a marriage for Cody's father Thomas Daniel.  Isn't the heir John Daniel b 1935, Thomas Daniel's uncle?

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[Henry W]

An updated Kershaw analysis is now available: http://www.baronetage.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Analysis-1-Jun-18.docx (as of 1 June 2018)

[Henry W]

Other than the corrections previously posted by Colin, the heir to the Elliott baronetcy, and the various deaths already reported to the group, I am unable to spot any changes since January.

[colinp]

A new Kershaw list dated 1 Feb 2019 is available on the baronetage.org website

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[Henry W]

Thanks Colin - nice to see a new entry on the list with the revived Von Freisendorff baronetcy listed.

I have been manually changing my own copy of this and one immediate update I think they missed was the fact that the Sitwell baronetcy should not be labelled with "B 2004" anymore as with the birth of Walter H. S. in 2018 there are now 2 young heirs to the title.

[bx...@yahoo.com]

It would be nice to see a Kershaw analysis re: the Peerage every month or two or six.

Brooke

[colinp]

Thanks - it will be a while until I am able to go through the listing

[colinp]

Just started to have a look at it.  I think Bruce-Gardner (1945) is wrongly labelled as "B 1995" as there is another heir b 2012  - Ewan James B-G  son of James Graham B-G b 1969, half-uncle of the present baronet

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[Henry W]

Have been revisiting the list published May 2019

Baron DERWENT (cr 1881) has a subsidiary baronetcy cr 1795.

Whilst the Barony is destined for extinction on the death of the current Baron (b 1930) and his son & ha (b 1965, m, 1 dau), the baronetcy does have younger heirs:

1. Richard Anthony JOHNSTONE-SCOTT (b 1946, m.) - a g-g-gs of the 2nd Baronet.

2. Iain Richard (b 1972) - eldest son of 1

3. Giles Edward (b 1978) - youngest son of 1

This branch appears to be on Jersey. Not sure on whether the two sons have married, etc. Kershaw currently lists as A 1965, which is true of the Barony, but the Baronetcy should be B 1978

[Henry W]

It should be A 1978.

[colinp]

The future of the Vanden-Bempde-Johnstone baronetcy is actually fairly secure - Giles Edward Johnstone-Scott b 1978 m 2005 Kelly Ann Noel and they have three sons Riley Richard b 2007, Beau Stephen b 2009 and Kit Iain b 2011

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[colinp]

responding (belatedly) to Sara White's post of 7 Feb 2018 - legitimation under Scots law was only possible if the parents were free to marry at the date of conception thus adulterine children could not be legitimated.  The position was however changed by the Legitimation (Scotland) Act 1968 which allowed the legitimation of adulterine children and such legitimated children can succeed to peerages and baronetcies under Scots law.

In England legitimation was not possible under Common Law and was only permitted by the Legitimacy Act 1926 which however excluded adulterine children - "Nothing in this Act shall operate to legitimate a person whose father or mother was married to a third person when the illegitimate person was born" (s 1(2)).  This was changed by the Legitimacy Act 1959 and consolidated in the Legitimacy Act 1976.  The legislation relating to England does not apply so as to permit the legitimated person to succeed to a title of honour

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:48:02 UTC, colinp wrote:

[colinp]

I have noticed that the latest Kershaw listing of the Baronetage (22 May 2019) does show that the youngest heir to the Bingham baronetcy (and therefore also to the Earldom) held by Lord Lucan was b 2014 - does anyone know who this is?  Perhaps a son of one of the grandsons of Maj Hon John Edward Bingham TD who died in 1992

[Henry W]

Searching around social media I have found the accounts of Philip Bingham (born 1979) and his wife Claire (they m 2011) - they both include photos of two children who I would estimate are a girl (b 2012??) and a boy (b 2014??).  It would appear this is the boy noted by the Kershaw list.

I did find the other grandsons (Philip b 1974 and Richard b 1978) - no photos of children were obvious.

[colinp]

The Newson-Smith baronetcy may be slightly more secure in that DPB online shows that the ha Oliver NIcholas Peter N-S b 1975 m 2007 Gemma M LEWIS and they have 2 daus Ava B b 2009 and Maisie G b 2011.  Perhaps a son may follow but given that 11 years have passed maybe this is unlikely  

[Richard R]

Thanks Henry for the Bingham post update. I assume the 'Philip Bingham (born 1979)' refers to Charles Nigel BINGHAM (b 1979) s of Nicholas Charles BINGHAM b 1943 (gs of 5th Earl of LUCAN 1860-1949). It’s very useful to learn of the likelihood of children from his 2011 marriage to Claire DIMELOE.