I believe that the utility companies have studied actual electrical consumption of the heat pump hot water heaters. The reason is that when I spoke with the City Light rebate person, she quizzed me heavily about which hot water heater I was choosing (Air Generate), where it would be installed (conditioned crawl) and how I was dealing with the cold air (ducting it to the outdoors). She said that the Air Generate and the AO Smith were the only 2 that were performing to a standard that warrants a rebate and only then, if they were installed properly. I passed her acid test to qualify, but we aren't installed yet.
During the National Solar Tour, I spoke with a person from Tacoma Power. He, too, was well-versed in real-time performance of equipment. They get paid to learn all of this stuff.
Hope this helps.
Martha
Martha Rose Construction, Inc.