CIA Versus Musharraf

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Aug 12, 2008, 2:08:18 PM8/12/08

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CIA Versus Musharraf

It was President Musharraf who was most annoyed over PPP decision to weaken ISI. It was after this disagreement with the U.S. that it was decided in Washington that he must be removed and, suddenly, we find Mr. Zardari changing tone, demeanor and language to join hands with PML (N) to impeach the besieged President. First priority is therefore to remove the man who is now finally and formally betrayed by all those internal and external allies who had scavenged around him for the last 8 years. U.S. and Britain have given tacit approval and support for the coup and are not coming for the support of their ‘trusted ally.’ There is no doubt that both U.S. and Britain are closely monitoring the moves of the army as the Army Chief is also a major hurdle in U.S. plans to weaken the ISI. With all political parties in U.S. pocket, the army and the ISI are the next targets once the President is annihilated. It is now a direct head-on clash between CIA and him. If he survives somehow, he will become a strong President and may turn the tables against U.S. and PPP

By ZAID HAMID

Tuesday, 12 August 2008.

WWW.AHMEDQURAISHI.COM

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—"The soul of our country needs to be awakened . . . When leaders act contrary to conscience, we must act contrary to leaders"-Veterans Fast for Life.

This week we will focus on dramatic developments in Islamabad which will very soon decide the fate of President Musharraf and the political future of the country. The CIA-sponsored, PPP-executed, and U.S.-backed attempted coup against ISI has begun to unfold with a new ruthless cutthroat political strategy and a new target designation which has following landmarks to be achieved in rapid succession.

Removal of President Musharraf.
Appointment of Mr. Zardari or his man as President.
Bringing ISI again under Ministry of Interior.
Complete takeover of Pakistan’s security establishment by CIA.

Before we initiate our detailed analysis of this ruthless high risk game, let us review what we had written last week about CIA’s plan to control ISI.

We had written:

In the past two weeks, a stunning axis of threat has emerged for Pakistan’s national security. U.S. and India have joined hands in a coordinated media blitz, psy-ops and diplomatic attack to target the centre of gravity of Pakistani armed forces and to weaken the powerful institution which so far remains out of U.S. influence and control -- the Inter Services Intelligence, ISI.

There is no doubt that U.S. has been heavily involved lately with the ‘democratic’ U.S.-installed and backed PPP government in Islamabad to find ways and means to bring ISI under its tighter control through those players in the PPP government who are un-elected and un-accountable but are placed at strategic locations in the national security apparatus.

The reason to target ISI remains that it is now believed in the U.S. administration that while Pakistan army remains the most powerful institution in the country, it is the ISI which is the source of that strength for the armed forces. Hence by attacking, subduing, controlling and thus destroying ISI, U.S. and by extension India can permanently solve the problem of not having enough leverage on Pakistani armed forces. ISI remains the eyes and ears of Pakistan’s national security establishment and its Director General is appointed by the army chief, hence the influence and control as well as loyalties of the ISI remains with the armed forces despite reporting to the Prime Minister.

So if the ISI can be penetrated and destroyed by U.S. appointed elements from the PPP government, it would be a stunning coup to take over Pakistan which US has been dreaming to achieve for decades. ISI has always out of US control and total influence despite very close relationship between CIA and ISI in the past and in the present.

After the failed coup against ISI and hence against army, the levels of trust between Pakistani armed forces and Pentagon are at their lowest at the moment despite apparent cordial relations. ISI and GHQ are definitely angry at the aims and objectives of the U.S. planners and the role the PPP government is playing in the process. The way orders of putting ISI under Rehman Malik were forcibly reversed at 3 am is in itself a complete commentary on the state of affairs after the botched CIA coup against ISI. Now the daggers are drawn. Each side will have to watch their backs, Indians too.”

The daggers are indeed out. After the failed coup against ISI, CIA changed tactics this time and asked Mr. Zardari to target the powerful trio which had resisted the initial coup – President, army chief and the DG ISI. Zardari knows that he cannot challenge and take on ISI without the full and powerful backing of the U.S. and CIA.

U.S. government made it very clear that they do not want ISI to be bothering their allies and should be tamed and brought under their control. This U.S. perception is turning into obsession and paranoia that ISI is having its own agenda and is out of control of PPP government and U.S. designs. U.S. has even forced the PPP government not to cancel the earlier orders to bring ISI under Ministry of Interior, an absolute and total insult to the premier spy agency if not a total sell out of national security.

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US wants ‘focused’ intelligence services
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COLOMBO, Aug 3: The United States has said it will like to see ‘focussed and good’ intelligence services in Pakistan working on the agenda of reining in terrorism that has become a cause of concern for the country’s neighbours. US Under-Secretary of State Richard Boucher said at a press conference here on Sunday that his government would want Pakistan to have a ‘good intelligence service’ that worked single-mindedly and in ‘close step’ with other institutions of the country, implying that the current mechanisms could be pursuing an agenda different from that of the government.
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top8.htm&date=20080804

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ISI notification held ‘in abeyance’
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ISLAMABAD, Aug 5: Instead of withdrawing its July 26 notification which had placed the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) under the direct control of the interior division, the federal government decided on Tuesday to hold it ‘in abeyance till further deliberations’. “The prime minister is pleased to direct that the federal government will carry out further deliberations on coordinating the intelligence efforts. Till the completion of these deliberations, the Cabinet Division’s memorandum of even number, dated July 26, 2008, is held in abeyance,” says an official announcement called ‘Memorandum’ issued by the Cabinet Secretariat.
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top6.htm&date=20080806

Ironically, it was President Musharraf who was most annoyed over the decision of PPP government to place ISI under MoI control. Hence, it was after this disagreement with the U.S. that it was decided in Washington that he must be removed and suddenly, we find Mr. Zardari changing tone, demeanor and language to join hands with PML (N) to impeach the besieged President. Zardari does not want to re-instate the judges but has found a way out that if he can have his own in the Presidency or he himself ideally, then he can deal with the judges as he wish. First priority is therefore to remove the man who is now finally and formally betrayed by all those internal and external allies who had scavenged around him for the last 8 years. U.S. and Britain has given tacit approval and support for the coup and are not coming for the support of their “trusted ally”. There is no doubt that both U.S. and Britain are closely monitoring the moves of the army as the Army Chief is also a major hurdle in U.S. plans to bring ISI under MOI. With all political parties in U.S. pocket, the army and the ISI are the next targets once the President is annihilated.

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COUNTDOWN BEGINS: Asif, Nawaz shrug off 58(2)b threat; Musharraf to be asked by national and provincial assemblies to seek vote of confidence; impeachment to be followed by reinstatement of judges
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ISLAMABAD, Aug 7: Leaders of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) have agreed to begin impeachment proceedings against President Pervez Musharraf,

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top1.htm&date=20080808

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Britain calls impeachment internal issue
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LONDON, Aug 7: The British government regards the move by the PPP-led coalition government to impeach President Musharraf as an internal matter of Pakistan.
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top10.htm&date=20080808

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Impeachment process must be consistent with rule of law, Constitution: US
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WASHINGTON, Aug 7: Spokesman Gonzalo R. Gallegos indicated at a regular briefing that the US was distancing himself from President Musharraf when he declared: “We will continue our close ties with the democratically elected government of Pakistan.”... http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top3.htm&date=20080808

There is still disagreement in U.S. policy makers over the deployed CIA strategy to remove President Musharraf so humiliatingly. The argument is that if the plan is to “tame” the ISI, is it better to work through Musharraf or work without him? The focus in any case remains on the ISI.

But it seems that the lobby which insists on removing President is gaining upper hand and now with total and complete betrayal by his allies and friends, President Musharraf is only left with extremely limited options to fight for his survival. In his entire career, he has never come so close to losing his grip on power. He was a sidelined man for the last six months in any case but still had the potential of becoming serious threat for the PPP government due to the powers vested in him to dissolve the assemblies.

Now he has the following options left:

Use his powers and dissolve the assemblies over non-performance, law and order crisis, bad governance and corruption. With U.S., Britain and his own political allies abandoning him, the only source of strength for President Musharraf to take such a drastic step could be the armed forces. But it seems that despite the obvious CIA plan to take over ISI, army wants to watch the developments more closely before making any move. President Musharraf does not control the army now and the GHQ would resist all temptations to interfere in the political process unless it becomes extremely necessary or the PPP government again tries to bring ISI under Mr. Zardari. President Musharraf it seems will have to fight this battle solo and he does not seem to be poised to take the radical step of pre-emptive counter attacking at this stage. He is losing precious moments and once the impeachment proceedings begin from Monday, he will lose even this option.

Face the impeachment process. He may or may not survive. It is now a direct head-on clash between CIA and him. If he survives somehow, he will become a strong President and may turn the tables against U.S. and PPP as well as against PML (N) and lawyers. Else, he will be a jobless man with a high probability of facing charges for ‘crimes’ of his government. This is a disaster scenario for him and the Saddam trial would be haunting him now.

He can resign and quit under a bargain that he will not be put on trial for his actions. This seems a low probability unless the army interferes to protect their former Chief from further humiliation.

In the next few days, President Musharraf’s fate will be sealed, for good or bad. He is reaping what he has sowed by trusting the Americans, allying with corrupt PML (Q) and worst of all laundering Zardari through the infamous NRO to make him so powerful that today Musharraf’s own throne is threatened by the man. Whatever is befalling President Musharraf today, he is totally and completely responsible for it. He chose his own advisors and allies and trusted the most unscrupulous and corrupt people this nation could throw up. Now when the crunch time has come, he stands alone, abandoned and betrayed by all his allies. His previous constituency, army, can perhaps step in to save him the humiliation of trial, jail and perhaps gallows, but is so far not willing to rescue him from impeachment or to consolidate his hold to power. The moment of truth has arrived for President Musharraf and now he has to face it alone. In the past he has survived both political crises as well as assassination bids. But somehow, this time it seems different. We shall know in a few days. But one thing is for sure, he will not go down without a fight.

This column is extracted from a situation report released by BRASSTACKS, a security and defense analysis think tank based in Islamabad. Mr. Zaid Hamid is its Founding Consultant. He can be reached at in...@brasstacks.biz