AJC> ... the volume newcomers this round will be low ...
We are supposedly on a geometric curve doubling learners every quarter (1000, 2000, 4000, 10,100 ...):
http://sharing-nicely.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/webcraft-roadmap-2011.jpg
If the expectation is for lower numbers I think some post-mortem analysis and reality testing needs to conducted. What I see expanding geometrically is the gap between expectations and reality. I say we put the problem on the table and identify options and solutions that can be implemented in the next cycle - without relying on a new platform or some downstream event that will not materialize within the next cycle.