𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵 (UK/İngiltere) 𝟭𝟲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: "The future of the Middle East depends on whether Turkey is our friend or foe" 👍👍
EMI P
The future of the Middle East depends on whether Turkey is our friend or foe
The West and Israel cannot afford to alienate Istanbul if they wish to see stability return to the region
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There are three poles on which the Middle East stands: the Arab nation states, Turkey and Iran.
For the West and Israel to hold influence in the region, we need two poles on our side. In this delicate balance of power, thus far we have successfully isolated Iran since the 1979 Islamist revolution. But the talk of a new cold war from Israeli politicians against Turkey risks wrecking this formula. Worse, this thinking fails to understand Turkey and does Iran’s bidding.
To an American audience, potential Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett last month declared that “a new Turkish threat is emerging”. Several days ago, Bennett again warned Turkey that “after Iran, we won’t stay idle”. Former Israeli defence minister, Yoav Gallant, another possible runner for prime minister, also views Turkey in hostile terms.
Turkey and Iran are rivals. They have been fighting a cold war for decades as champions of competing claims of leadership of over 1.8 billion Muslims around the world. Turkey is a Sunni Muslim nation of 86 million, inheritor of the Ottoman Empire, and faces East (Russia) and West (Balkans). Iran is a Shiite nation of 92m and the result of the Safavid Empire. For almost three centuries, these empires were at war. Now, their successor states continue that bitter rivalry.
Israeli threats in the past could have been interpreted as politicking, but after the Israeli attack on Doha, Qatar, targeting Hamas officials, there is deep concern across the Middle East that no nation is safe. Israel desperately needs Turkey and Arab nations as allies for it cannot secure its existence by enraging all. Indeed, Turkey has deeper strategic interests that outweigh tactical support for Hamas.
Turkey is a vital Nato ally, its second largest army, and producer of advanced drone technology. Donald Trump also enjoys a deep friendship with the Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one of the few leaders who stayed in touch with the US president during his legal battles and isolation. Trump is said to have been impressed with Erdogan’s removal of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria and the instating of Ahmed Al-Shara. Turkey dismantled a pro-Iran regime in Syria.
Unlike Iran, Turkey and Israel maintain diplomatic relations. Turks holiday in Israel and vice versa. Erdogan has met Benjamin Netanyahu multiple times. In Iran, hatred for Israel is state doctrine as is calling for the Jewish state’s destruction. In Turkey, the collective memory of the nation frequently recalls that, when Isabella and Ferdinand expelled Jews from Spain, the Ottomans sent their navy to rescue Jewish people. When the modern Jewish state was founded, Turkey recognised Israel in 1949, the first Muslim nation to do so. Relations are now strained, but friends of Israel must help change that course.
Iran fears Turkey more than it does Israel. As we have seen so far, Israel has no domestic leverage in Iran. The previous supreme leader and his successor are both Azeri Turks. Approximately a quarter of the population of Iran today is Azeri with deep linguistic, cultural, and familial ties to Azerbaijan, northern neighbour of Iran. Azerbaijan and Turkey are, in turn, family members among nation states. Turkey has tentacles inside Iran’s population and the ability to harm its cohesion. Increasing tensions with Turkey would guarantee the loss of Israel’s relations with Azerbaijan.
Israel is fighting a multi-front war in Iran, Syria, Yemen, Gaza, and the West Bank, and suffering from the trauma of October 7. Rather than tilt the Turks and Iranians both against Israel, it is to Israel’s benefit to carry Turkey and the Arab nations with it towards a plain of coexistence. There are 400m Sunni Arabs in the Middle East, with 21 nation states, increasingly led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This is a new dynamic where power has shifted from Damascus, Baghdad and Cairo. The Sunni Arabs outnumber Iran, Turkey and Israel combined. They also have links to the wider Sunni Muslim world of 50-plus nations where the Shiite population is only 15 percent.
Arnold Toynbee wrote of creative minorities, a small elite group of leaders who in his A Study of History guide civilisations through crises by devising innovative solutions. The UAE is leading that creative minority in the Middle East, and the Abraham Accords are a standing testament to that new thinking. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the president of the UAE, has also had his disagreements with Turkey over the Muslim Brotherhood. But the UAE and others would be forced to side with Turkey in any possible conflict with Israel. This only would strengthen Iran and its Hamas proxies and further isolate Israel.
Shiite extremism is on the rise. The fanatics have vowed revenge after the killing of Iran’s supreme leader. Hezbollah and the Houthis are only two manifestations. For Israel’s own security, the safety of the wider West and our Arab allies, deeper diplomacy with Turkey is more promising than greater hostility. President Erdogan is a listener in every meeting I have participated. Whoever wins the election in Israel, Erdogan will be listening, as will be Arab leaders, for a pathway to a Palestinian homeland that is not a threat to Israel. That pursuit will secure Israel.
Ed Husain is a senior fellow at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations and a professor of international relations at Columbia University in New York and Georgetown University in Washington DC
Ever since Israel's decimation of Gaza starting in 2025, relations between Israel and Türkiye, already strained since the 2010 Mavi Marmara affair where ten Turkish citizens were killed by the IDF in international waters, have hit rock bottom. Turkish President Erdogan has made bellicose statements to Israel over Gaza and Netanyahu has responded by painting all of Türkiye (a nation of 87.9 million) along with Erdogan as enemies of Israel to the Israeli public. Going so far as to recently enter military alliances with Türkiye's historic nemesis Greece and the Greek Cypriot run Republic of Cyprus.
It will be long and hard to overcome this animosity, if even possible. What is required is statesmanship, not Israeli politicians such as those named in this article pandering to popular public anti-Turkish animosity to get votes. I still remember Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog publicly thanking Türkiye for its cooperation in thwarting an Iranian plot to attack Israeli tourists in Istanbul in June 2022. Israel needs a Prime Minister of that same caliber.