THE DECLINE & COMING FALL OF US HEGEMONY - K Gajendra Singh

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THE DECLINE & COMING FALL OF US HEGEMONY
K Gajendra Singh

March 30, 2008

"History is ruled by an inexorable determinism in which the free
choice of major historical figures plays a minimal role", Leo Tolstoy


When I went back to Ankara in late 1992 to head the Indian Embassy,
many of my friends from the Turkish Foreign Office from my 1969-73
tenure as First Secretary, were going out as ambassadors to newly
independent states in Central Asia and the Baltic, following the
breakup of the Soviet Union. Looking at the creation of so many new
missions, a cheeky young Turkish diplomat in the Foreign Ministry said
rather mischievously than hopefully, that only if United States of
America broke up into 50 independent states, could he ever hope to
head like them a Turkish Embassy, in north America. Turkish diplomats
trace their traditions and archives to six centuries of Ottoman rule
over an empire from which more than two dozen nations have emerged.

But the wish of the young diplomat is not going to be fulfilled any
time soon, if ever. But still—

An editorial titled ' Collapse of U.S. economy ' in Belleville
Intelligencer of 27 Feb, 2008 confirms , by now generally accepted ill
health of US economy . Harry Koza in the Globe and Mail recently
quoted Bernard Connelly, the global strategist at Banque AIG in
London, that the likelihood of a Great Depression is growing by the
day. Martin Wolf of U.K.'s Financial Times cited Dr. Nouriel Roubini
of the New York University's Stern School of Business, who outlines
how the losses of the American financial system will grow to more than
$1 trillion, an amount equal to all the assets of all American banks.

The next domino to fall will be credit card defaults, and after
that... who knows? There are so many exotic funds out there, with
trillions of dollars in paper - or rather computer-screen money - all
carrying assorted acronyms, and all about to disintegrate into
nothingness. Over the next couple of years, scores of banks that have
thrived on these devices, based on quickly disappearing equities, will
fail.

The most frightening forecast so far comes from the Global Europe
Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), "The end of the third quarter of 2008
(thus late September, a mere seven months from now) will be marked by
a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis.
"At that time indeed, the cumulated impact of the various sequences of
the crisis will reach its maximum strength and affect decisively the
very heart of the systems concerned, on the front line of which (is)
the United States, epi-centre of the current crisis.

"In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into -
get this - a collapse of the real economy, (the) final socio-economic
stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and
of the pursuance of the U.S. dollar fall. The collapse of U.S. real
economy means the virtual freeze of the American economic machinery:
private and public bankruptcies in large numbers, companies and public
services closing down."
"We are not experiencing a "remake" of the 1929 crisis nor a
repetition of the 1970s oil crises or 1987 stock market crisis. What
we will have, instead, is truly a global momentous threat - a true
turning point affecting the entire planet and questioning the very
foundations of the international system upon which the world was
organized in the last decades."

After the end of the cold war in the wake of the two World Wars ,the
decline of western hegemony over the East and South during the last
few centuries ,first exercised by rapacious and brutal European
colonialists and then from Washington ,is now likely to morph into a
fall because of the new forces unleashed by the US led invasions of
Afghanistan and Iraq .The two debt financed wars have brought US
economy close to a recession ( Indian economy including the realty
sector would also be affected ,Indian officials and media still remain
oblivious if not dishonest in spite of the fall in Indian Sensex).
Forces and changes have been set into motion which will completely
alter the existing international financial and strategic structures
and result in a new dynamics. Unless of course the irresponsible
leadership of USA, still with colossal powers of destruction at its
command or say a reckless Israel, bomb Iran and hurl the world towards
a rapid general warfare between Israel & West vs Muslim nations and
masses, leading to even a nuclear holocaust and Armageddon. Verily ,
it would then be the last Crusade vs Jihad !

Contrary to the self proclaimed congratulatory triumphalism of neo-
liberals after the collapse of Communism and Socialism in end 1980s,
celebrated from house tops by the so called philosophers , think tanks
and analysts with delusions of permanent world domination of Western
financiers and corporate houses based on dubious theories of 'the End
of History 'or 'the Clash of Civilizations' and even claims of
Washington- the new Rome with absolute control planned in the 'Project
for American Century ' by arrogant and historically ignorant
Straussian neo-cons and their supporters ; the religious , economic ,
scientific and historic forces and currents unleashed during the last
few centuries are coalescing towards a major East-West conflagration ,
which will bring about results quite opposite to those dreamed up in
Washington , London and Paris.

The importance of petroleum in warfare and economy had become obvious
even before the Second World War. By 1940s , the British who dominated
the Middle East and still ruled over India, realising the importance
of oil and the strategic importance of Middle East as lifeline to
India, had created military alliances with most of the countries of
the Middle East including Iran to protect oil wells from the Soviet
Union. The British created a weak and dependent Pakistan as a bulwark
against any USSR overture into the Gulf. After the Second WW, USA was
formally anointed the leader of the Western Christian nations although
after the end of the First WW the financial power centre had started
shifting towards the Wall Street from the City of London, but the
latter still has great leverage for manipulation.

From 1950s onwards , USSR made inroads into many Arab states led by
secular, and nationalist leaders like Gamal Nasser of Egypt. West used
religion and conservative and hereditary rulers to counter the
egalitarian waves of socialism sweeping the Middle East, Asia and
Africa. The battle lines for influence and control between the West
and USSR ( and China) saw many ups and downs . An epochal change
occurred when Iran was lost in 1979 and US ally the Shahenshah was
overthrown by Khomeini led Shia revolution , threatening the
Sheikhdoms and Kingdoms in the region. Western world and its
frightened allies in the region, taken aback , encouraged and helped
financially and militarily Saddam Hussein to douse the leaping flames
from the volcano of Shia revolution with its belief in martyrdom. Iran
and Iraq lost over a million young men ; the 1980s Iraq –Iran war only
protected the vested interests of the West and its allies in the
region.

From the Middle East , Western strategic lever to manipulate and
control the region and its resources extended into South Asia through
an axis between the USA, Saud dynasty, obscurantist Wahabi clerics and
Pakistan military. This axis along with support from other Muslim
countries and even China fathered , nurtured , trained and financed
with arms and billions of dollars ,the present monster of militants
and Jihadis to battle and force out the Soviet forces from
Afghanistan .The nurseries of terrorism were left behind intact which
morphed into Al Qaeda and Talebans , the latter with full support from
Pakistan and the Gulf's Arab rulers and US acquiescence , which wanted
a 'stable' Afghanistan for its Multinationals' pipelines to carry
energy from central to South Asia and beyond. That project remains
unfulfilled.

For his cooperation ,Pakistan President Gen Zia- ul- Haq was suitably
rewarded with money and military aid which emboldened Islamabad to
carry out an invasion in Kargil in India .With abundance of
arms ,Pakistan acquired a Kalashnikov culture of violence while
increased opium production in Afghanistan , with Pakistan as an exit
route left millions of it citizens addicted to the drug. Gen Zia
Islamised Pak polity and completed nuclear bomb program with
acquiescence and even support form the West.

But Al Qaeda chief Osama Ben Laden , chosen for the Jihad in
Afghanistan by the Saudi rulers nurtured dreams of taking over Muslim
states gone astray and conquer other peoples too. The victims were
India and newly independent central Asian states like Tajikistan ,
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and Arab states which had supported and sent
volunteers to fight in Afghanistan.

In its strategy to defeat the Christian West and the Crusaders in the
Middle East , even on the sacred soil of Arabia after the 1991 US led
war on Iraq , Al Qaeda first attacked US missions in East Africa .But
the stunning events of 9/11 showed up the fundamental contradictions
in the US-Saudi –Pak axis , with 14 of the 19 hijackers being of Saudi
origin ,led by an Egyptian and Al Qaeda's octopus like tentacles
deeply embedded in Pak military, ISI and the establishment .

The hyper power USA then mounted an invasion of Afghanistan , the
objective being to control the region and extending into central Asia
with its resources . But the strains and stresses in the Crusader-
Jihadi axis became even more acute after the US led illegal invasion
of Iraq in March, 2003, angering and pitting Muslim masses all over
the world against USA , UK and other western nations in the backdrop
of continued illegal occupation and encroachments on Palestinian land
by Israel since 1967 and daily killings of Palestinians telecast on
channels like Al Jazeera and others.

This is acutely true in US-Saudi relations with the latter being the
leading Sunni Muslim state , protecting the holy Islamic shrines in
Mecca and Medina and blessed with vast oil resources. With increasing
public support for Al Qaeda inside the Kingdom ,Riyadh is now in a
quandary. Its power and prestige have been eroded as a result of its
rival Shia power Iran's strengthened position in Iraq and the region ,
just the opposite of what Washington had foolishly hoped for.
President George Bush did not even know the difference between Shia
and Sunni Islam and Ahmet Chalebi ,a wily Iraqi ,exiled after the 1958
overthrow of the Hashemite dynasty , had sold to the willing in the
Pentagon the charade that US troops would be welcomed with flowers by
the Iraqis .No body ever cared to read the history of Iraq or the
region.

US invasion and occupation has divided Iraq into at least three parts,
Shia, Sunni and Kurdish ; it now appears difficult to hold them
together .Apart from exposing the hollow claims of the US success of
its 'Surge ' and stability in Iraq ,the current fighting between the
puppet government Iraqi troops and Mahdi army ,the Moqtada –as Sadr
militia , specially in Basra and Baghdad is" a result of an attempt to
impose Colombian-style democracy on the unstable country. Iraqi PM
Maliki's goal, shared by the like-minded allies among the Shia, Sunni
and Kurdish parties that dominate his administration, and with U.S.
approval and air support , is to kill off the opposition and then hold
a vote." Moqtda is fighting to retain control for provincial elections
in October, as" the winners of those elections will determine the
future of the Iraqi state. Control of the country's oil wealth, and
how its treasure will be developed, will also be significantly
influenced by the outcome of the elections."
Washington which had coerced President Gen Pervez Musharraf after
9/11, under threat to bomb Pakistan back to stone ages ( some ally?),
to align Islamabad in its so called 'War on terror 'wanted Pakistan to
destroy Al Qaeda , Pushtun Talebans and Muslim Jihadis in Pakistan and
Afghanistan, with whom Saudi Arabia , Pak Army , ISI and the
establishment have umbilical connections since their holy Jihad
against atheist Soviet Union in Afghanistan during 1980s.( Israel now
wants PLO to destroy Tehran aligned Hamas-originally incubated by
Mossad to counter Al Fattah.)

US has lost the war on the ground in Iraq and Nato is in disarray in
Afghanistan . At the end of 'Operation Iraqi freedom ' transmuted into
a ' war on terror' , really the mother of all battles for oil, raw
materials and strategic space in west , south and central Asia , the
frontiers in the Middle East and even Pakistan are likely to be
redrawn , but not by the West but by the movements , militias and
peoples of the region. Say by Shias in south Iraq and Pushtuns in Pak-
Afghanistan border who might obliterate the Durand Line officially ,
to begin with. But West has invested too much in the region and its
prosperity depends on it. It is unlikely to give in or give up without
a bloody fight.

The Kingdom of Afghanistan was accepted as a defacto buffer state by
the British and Russian empires at the end of 'the Great Game' in
Central Asia in 19th century .By the end of the 20th century , the
British and Russian empires in Asia had vanished and many new states
have emerged out of them. Thus the very raison d'etre of that buffer
state no longer holds good. The Afghan territory is under control of
different armed groups , foreign and local , with Washington installed
President Hamid Karzai, with US mercenaries as his bodyguards, barely
controlling the city of Kabul. Look at new states sprung from former
Russian and British empires now , at Europe after the two world wars
and at the end of the Cold War . State and national boundaries are
always waxing and waning , some times changing drastically. So what is
new if Pakistan breaks apart .Little effort has been made by its
leaders since 1947 to even develop a territory based nationalism.
China would not escape further problems in Tibet and may be even in
Xinjiang.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, USA went about
methodically in dismantling Russia and its near abroad and succeeded,
with ample help from a naive Gorbachev and an often drunk or drugged
Boris Yeltsin. The 9/11 assaults on US symbols of power was exploited
by the Bush administration to spread its tentacles to Afghanistan and
beyond in central Asia . For USA the Cold War never really ended and
all means were employed to push Western military arm NATO to encroach
into and encircle Russian strategic space. In central Europe it was
carried out by dismantling Yugoslavia, an Orthodox Christian Slav
nation like and friendly to Russia and by aligning Georgia and
Azerbaijan to Washington. US franchised street revolutions failed in
Belarus but succeeded in Serbia and Georgia and partially in Ukraine.
When USA tried the same in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, Uzbek ruler
Islam Karimov expelled the Americans from the air base and Kyrgyzstan
placed new restrictions. The eastward movement of NATO has resulted in
the creation of Shanghai Corporation Organisation which is now
promoting military coordination and collaboration among its members
and possibly even a formal military alliance in future to counter
Nato.

In its backyard Latin America, USA maintained its dominance under
Monroe doctrine except for defiant Cuba under Fidel Castro. But
Washington is losing its sway and total control, led against it by
Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and other leaders who represent and implement
aspirations of their people and not of the old elites in cahoots with
corporate interests in USA and Europe. US attempt for a colonial style
control of its oil has been brought to a halt by fierce Sunni Iraqi
resistance ; full Shia resistance would also emerge. Defied by Iran
and even forced to engage with it , there are limitations to what
Washington, now caught in the Iraqi quagmire, can do in Latin
America . With a defiant nuclear North Korea, and China, an emerging
economic power house, the policies of Japan, the second economic
industrial power in the world which can quickly transmute its
formidable industrial base into a lethal military machine, the
situation in East Asia remains pregnant with many unpredictable
possibilities. But certainly the US writ and influence are on the wane
every where.


K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to
Turkey and Azerbaijan from August 1992 to April 1996. Prior to that,
he served terms as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal. He is
currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. Copy
right with the author. E-mail: Gaje...@hotmail.com .