Brent,
While I agree with where you're coming from, I don't think it is at
all that simple.
The economics of Open Source are different. That difference has been
making substantial waves throughout the software industry for some
time. I think it is clear that most of those projects are not
government funded.
In a large organization, it is seldom the developer who gets to make a
decision whether and how to distribute a program.
If you take something like CFD, Aerospace companies used to do a lot
of in-house development. Today, they've mostly moved to using COTS or
government developed tools. Those are complex decisions, but one
thing you may lose is the ability to modify tools for highly
specialized needs.
I think we will see cases where companies choose to contribute to open
source tools rather than develop their own or rely on an external
vendor. Open source is a different model between those options.
Sometimes the open source project will start because the company
decides to release what they have internally. CFD has wide
applicability beyond Aerospace, but there are lots of tools that
Aerospace companies develop that won't ever spur a software industry
to provide COTS tools.
For small businesses, I think we will see cases where the hassle of
marketing, selling, and supporting a program are not worth it.
Instead, an open source model may get their tools into more hands --
and that increased exposure may drive their other core businesses.
I think open source is a great model for a lot of things -- but I
think everybody out there is in the best position to choose their own
model.
Rob