I think this match is amazingly good and I would be thrilled to have it.
When plotted vs. J, we expect a fixed geometry prop to collapse onto a single curve. The UIUC data does not do this.
If you read the reports that accompany the data, they explain it with Reynolds number differences. I'm not sure I believe that -- I have also seen propellers at this scale with significant flex at high thrust. That flex may cause bend-twist coupling -- effectively changing the pitch of the prop. This is something that the APC and VSPAERO models will not capture. I think the APC data will capture the Reynolds number variation, and VSPAERO will somewhat too -- but you have to run a different case for each Re and it can make sweeping J difficult.
My intuition tells me that the Re variation should affect Cp more than Ct (it is more of a drag effect than a lift effect - particularly away from stall). And you see that in the Propfolio results (for an APC 10x10):
The Cp spread (in the un-stalled region) of the two results seems to be of similar magnitude -- i.e. both could be explained by Reynolds number.
However, the APC data has very little spread in Ct - while the UIUC data has considerable spread. These do not seem likely to have the same explanation.
I always thought someone should set up one of these small props in a tunnel with reflective tape on the back surface along with a pulsed laser and the ability to trace where the laser reflection hits the tunnel wall as a way of measuring deflection and twist of the blade under load....
Rob