Hi Jason,
I agree that today the SSDs are not at cost parity with rotating media.
The presence of the proposal is that SSDs will come to price parity with rotating media. And that may achieve total cost of ownership parity very soon, and perhaps already has.
The power issues are significant. Backblaze can provide real data, but I would expect rotating media to average about 5 watts and SSDs one tenth of that. Knocking off a few kw per rack helps with the total cost of ownership and longevity should help with amortization.
The current production FLASH provide a Tb of storage per device, so 8 devices is a terabyte. 64 devices can fit in the space of a 2.5" drive - so 8 TB is feasible with available production devices. Those densities are expected to continue to increase. The cost of making the silicon does not significantly increase for the newer process.
As a practical issue, silicon costs about 50 cents each, so the cost of the silicon is relatively small, compared to the cost of the device.
The true economics of SSDs is not based on the cost of the technology, but rather the value. The market should find balance over time.
The point of the post is to prepare. The economics and performance needs to be fully investigated.
MTBF of SSDs is generally the millions of hours, where rotating medial is maybe 15% of that.
FLASH silicon has data retention measured in decades. Conversely, hammering on storage generally will fail in 5 - 10 years. Many of the manufacturers provide 10 year warranties.
Backblaze has done a great job at collecting and sharing actuarial data on hard drives and given a nod to COTS hardware reliability.
Such data should be collected on the newer technologies. Perhaps populating a current POD with SSDs and seeing how it fares over time in regular use.
Cheers,
- Rick