defining probability of occurrence and occurrence rates for ground motion fields and seismic risk

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Jedidiah Joel Aguirre

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Jun 11, 2024, 11:46:33 AMJun 11
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Hi GEM,

I would like to generate Ground Motion Fields (GMFs) using my own simulated synthetic catalogue with a length of 10,000 years, for which the OQ Engine can refer to as ruptures.csv, which contains the location of the hypocenter (longitude, latitude, altitude), the strike, dip, and rake, the mesh (extent of rupture surface), and the occurrence rate/probability of occurrence.

In this case, the OQ Engine assumes a Poisson process and hence the ruptues.csv only require either the probability of occurrence or the number of occurrences of each rupture belonging to the catalogue. My simulated catalogue was derived using a Physics-based model and therefore does not assume a Poisson Process. Probabilities of occurrences can be estimated by fitting the forecasts to time-dependent models.

Given these information, do I need the ruptures.csv to only include the occurrence rates, or do I need to specify also the probability of occurrences? And given that my synthetic catalogue was not determined by Monte Carlo Simulation but by a Physical Model, do I need to change something in the codes in calculating seismic risk? Since this is not a Poisson Process, the concept of return periods cannot be used.

Thank you for the response.
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