Hello German speakers
The Energy Systems of the Future (ESYS) project is releasing a report on energy supply security concerning Germany next week on Zoom:
That on‑line event is titled "Welche Auswirkungen hat der Ukrainekrieg auf Energiepreise und Versorgungssicherheit?" or "What impact will the Ukraine war have on energy prices and security of supply?" Register here:
The situation in Germany is difficult. Gas supply is tight and
domestic prices are rising. Any extension of the runtime for
Germany's shuttered nuclear fleet has now been categorically ruled
out on technical grounds. The German Constitution expressly
prioritizes household supply before industrial demand. The
European energy regulator is considering forcing German
electricity generators to supply France under EU solidarity
provisions, thereby diverting gas that could fuel German industry
— a significant part of the aging French nuclear fleet is
currently off‑line for engineering reasons. A host of shipped LNG
projects are being shunted through. Looking forward a little
further, German industry will no longer have access to cheap piped
natural gas and that will affect international competitiveness.
And somewhat related, Germany is currently trying to co‑establish
industrial green hydrogen projects in Australia and elsewhere —
while noting that there are no at‑scale (say 20MW) electrolysis
pilot plants yet running anywhere in the world.
I am currently trying to find out if the underlying report will be translated into English — if so, I will post back with details.
-- Robbie Morrison Address: Schillerstrasse 85, 10627 Berlin, Germany Phone: +49.30.612-87617
Hello German speakers
The associated "Russian gas" report is now public:
Key points (unofficial translation):
The online presentation (see below) is due to start in four hours
using Zoom. Apparently questions can be submitted as text (using
the Zoom Q+A function I guess). I have not checked the German
press today but this report should be covered in the major
with best wishes, Robbie
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The two underpinning reports for the ESYS study (for completeness):
Gierkink, Max, Eren Çam, Hendrik Diers, Julian Keutz, Jan Kopp, Arne Lilienkamp, Michael Moritz, Michael Wiedmann, and Jonas Zinke (July 2022). Szenarien für die Preisentwicklung von Energieträgern — Endbericht [Scenarios for the price development of energy sources — Final report] (in German). Cologne, Germany: Energiewirtschaftliches Institut (EWI).
Ragwitz, Mario, Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, Bernhard Klaaßen, Marieke Graf, Ulrike Herrmann, Christoph Nolden, Maximilian Evers, Okan Akça, Dongrui Jiang, and Kristian Hurtig (July 2022). Europäische Gasversorgungssicherheit aus technischer und wirtschaftlicher Perspektive vor dem Hintergrund unterbrochener Versorgung aus Russland [European gas supply security from a technical and economic perspective against the background of interrupted supply from Russia] (in German). Cottbus, Germany: Fraunhofer IEG, Fraunhofer SCAI, and TU Berlin.
"Market prices [for France] already show the drama of the situation: for the December peak forward contract, i.e. the price of electricity with delivery during the day, €1500/MWh is currently being paid — 15 times more than a year ago and almost three times as much as in Germany, which is plagued by gas shortages. Forward prices suggest that the spot price is likely to reach four digits during hundreds of hours in winter. This price is also several times higher than the generation costs of gas turbine power plants. These staggering prices are obviously necessary to ensure that enough industrial plants cease production to generate enough electricity at all.The fuel costs of gas-fired power plants alone cannot otherwise explain such high prices."
Hirth, Lion (1 July 2022). "Die zweite Krise: Frankreichs Kernenergie" ["The second crisis: France's nuclear power"] (in German). Tagesspiegel Background Energie & Klima.
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After we wrote the article, the price even rose even further, so it now stands at 1900 EUR/MWh for power delivered during peak-hours of the days, which is from 8am to 8pm.
Exactly the same product (DEC 22 Peak Load) used to cost 70 Euro/MWh less than two years ago, but now costs this much. Crazy times, and France is facing a severe electricity crisis.
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