River discharge projections (climate change scenarios) for Europe

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Vignesh Sridharan

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Mar 17, 2021, 12:16:49 PMMar 17
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Hi,

We are looking for river discharge projections under climatic change (different scenarios) for some rivers in the Drin and Drina river basins in the Balkans. We have historical streamflow data for some of the tributaries to the Drina and the Drina rivers. Using that we are calibrating an energy systems model with cascading storage along the river. We were wondering if there are any off-the-shelf open data available that can be used to develop a range of climatic projections (to represent variations in river flow). I usually refer to ECMWF-Copernicus climate store for this kind of info. I see a lot of information on historical data (even hourly data). When it comes to projections, I can see some information on climate variability in future hydrological regimes, however, I am not sure how to interpret it for my needs. Additionally, I have heard of some river discharge projections from JRC, but am not really able to find them.  Can someone point/guide me to some suitable open data sources that I can use for the above-mentioned needs?
Thanks

Best
Vignesh

Matteo De Felice

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Mar 18, 2021, 5:52:20 AMMar 18
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Hello,
yes, so far your only choice is using the SWICCA data (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/sis-water-quantity-swicca?tab=overview). You will not get time-series but change in monthly mean according to model/scenarios. It depends on your needs, of course, but that data might be useful to project river discharge data. A new dataset will be released soon, probably more complete (https://climate.copernicus.eu/operational-service-water-sector). More information are here on the latest seminars from C3S: https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/2021-03/C3SWebinar3_PeterBerg.pdf

Regarding JRC LISFLOOD, so far you can only download temperature and precipitation (https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/jrc-liscoast-10011/resource/651bdb7d-bedf-489a-a90a-2c723bd43488) but I think they are planning to release the full dataset with river-discharge and runoff at 5 km, I will try to get more information on this,

Best regards,

Vignesh Sridharan

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Mar 18, 2021, 8:24:13 AMMar 18
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Hi Matteo,

Thanks a ton for the pointers. I will investigate the SWICCA data and revert.
I had used the LISFLOOD outputs (from JRC-ISPRA) for Africa and that was the motivation behind my question.  Looking forward to the LISFLOOD outputs for Europe.

Best
Vignesh


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Robbie Morrison

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Mar 25, 2021, 6:00:41 AMMar 25
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Hi all

This recently launched World Energy and Meteorology Council (WEMC) service called TEAL might be of use:

TEAL currently offers only historical climate and energy data, so, as far as I can tell, it doesn't answer the question of projection.  Perhaps you could contact WEMC to see if they are planning to build further services on top of this information?  Their YouTube video implies that the service is useful for making decisions about future options — with the implication that users can and should intuitively extrapolate.  (That would surely be better if subject to machine learning and I imagine the AI and climate folk are working on exactly that application?)

with best wishes, Robbie

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Vignesh Sridharan

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Apr 16, 2021, 7:46:10 AMApr 16
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Hi Robbie, Matteo All 

Thanks for the WEMC links.
An update on the SWICCA dataset that Matteo suggested.
1. For people comfortable dealing with NETCDF format, the Copernicus climate store outputs are pretty straight forward. 
2. For those that want a GUI and able to select the river basins for which they want the projections, the main developers of SWICCA (SMHI) have uploaded the data sets here (climate projections) and here (historical).
The user can choose the point for which they want the river flow projections. A screenshot attached for the Sava (River) in Zagreb. It shows the drainage area, and a whole load of different projection can be obtained. 

image.png

3. They give outputs from three Hydrological models (HYPE, LisFLOOD and VIC), which have been made to run a set of RCP26,45 and 85 scenarios. However, they give only percentage differences for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 in comparison to the base period (1971-2010, I think). Ensemble means are also calculated for each catchment.    
4. If one wants time-series projections (daily etc.), it is available only for the outputs from the HYPE model (for all the climate projection). They provide both regulated and unregulated projections for river flows. The difference between regulated and unregulated flow is that any regulation routines (dams, reservoirs) known to the model are removed from the model run.
5. Finally, the user forum is quite good and they respond to questions quickly. 

@Matteo, thanks again for pointing to this dataset. It has been very useful.

Best
Vignesh
   


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