I would say you have a significant amount of resistance on the Dec axis. This could come from a significant weight imbalance, cable routing problems, or from static resistance (stiction) on the axis. The latter is most often caused by a drive system that is too tightly meshed, perhaps in an overly aggressive effort to eliminate backlash. During guiding, each guide pulse starts the motor for a short time period which essentially pumps a small amount of energy into the system. Under normal conditions, this energy is immediately translated into a tiny rotation of the axis. But if stiction is present and the gears can't move freely, the axis may not move at all, in which case that energy is stored elsewhere - in mounting blocks, bearings, wherever. After some number of consecutive guide pulses in the same direction, the static resistance is finally overcome and the axis suddenly starts to move. But that also releases the stored energy in the system, and the axis moves according to the size of the last guide pulse plus the amount of stored energy. You can see this fairly clearly with your calibration graph - nothing happens for a few guide pulses then the axis suddenly moves by an unexpectedly large amount. This can also explain at least some of the large Dec excursions. In one case I can see, PHD2 issued a series of Dec guide commands in the same direction for a full minute without any appreciable effect - and then the next guide command, still in the same direction, triggered a large movement of the axis. Fiddling around with guiding parameters isn't going to help any of this and is more likely to just make things worse - I think you need to pursue improvement of the Dec axis mechanics.
Good luck,
Bruce