AI skepticism

[Gary Berg-Cross]

'In his latest annual Predictions Scorecard on the tech sector, the former director of MIT's AI and computer labs warns that despite its unprecedented levels of success, the AI industry is merely "following a well worn hype cycle that we have seen again, and again, during the 60+ year history of AI."'

More at https://rodneybrooks.com/predictions-scorecard-2024-january-01/

Gary Berg-Cross 

Potomac, MD

240-426-0770

[Alex Shkotin]

Gary,

AI technological optimists may be of interest also.

https://www.forourposterity.com/situational-awareness-the-decade-ahead/

"I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. 

II. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion

AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and the peril—of superintelligence would be dramatic."

Alex

пн, 15 июл. 2024 г. в 16:22, Gary Berg-Cross <gberg...@gmail.com>:

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