Putting Nigeria To The Test--Will Democracy Stick?

[Olusola Daniel]

GUEST POST WRITTEN BY

Fred McKinney

Mr. McKinney, Ph.D., is managing director of MBE programs at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth.

Nigeria is on the verge of joining the elite club of developed nations and economies. President Buhari must continue on the path of political and economic progress critical to keeping this African juggernaut moving in that direction. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

If American politics are brutal, then those in Nigeria are a blood sport. Since 1963, there have been 14 Nigerian heads of state. Eleven were succeeded because five were deposed, three “resigned,” two died in office and one was assassinated. No wonder the country’s recent election has been a breath of fresh air: After Goodluck Jonathan was defeated, he peacefully stepped down and allowed his successor, Muhammadu Buhari, to assume the presidency.

This is all the more reason why the current administration should concentrate on building on the political progress and economic restructuring started by the Jonathan administration. Buhari should focus on unifying Nigerians so as to make the next democratic transition easier. While the first democratic transfer of power was momentous for Nigeria and all of Africa, the second will determine if democracy sticks.

Oil revenues represent 70% of the Nigerian federal budget. But with this year’s decline in oil prices (more than 50%), there is enormous fiscal pressure on the new administration. Before the drop, Nigerian GDP was growing at 6%. That’s now been slashed in half.

There’s an obvious temptation to place the blame on Jonathan and his officials, but they had no control over oil prices. And despite the dive, Price Waterhouse still projects Nigeria to be the third most populous nation and the 9th largest economy in the world by 2050. These predictions are based on a continuation of the implementation of market principles, democracy and political stability—and it would behoove Buhari to remember that.

In his recent visit to Africa, President Obama stated that the development of African entrepreneurs was the key to the development of the entire continent and something he would dedicate his time to after leaving office. With the assistance of local Nigerian philanthropists like Tony Elumelu and others, a number of resources are being alloted to this expansion. If we have learned anything about economic development in the past 40 years, it is that entrepreneurship matters. Capital is attracted to talent, innovation and hard work, all characteristics of entrepreneurs around the world.

Another challenge: The Buhari administration should pursue both the prosecution of crooked high level officials and set the stage for the reduction—if not elimination—of corruption’s most pernicious forms. Pilfering the public purse isn’t just a Nigerian problem (note the recent scandals in Brazil and China) but one way to combat it is with transparency.

My recommendation would be to continue the previous administration’s practice of publishing how much aid the federal government gives to each state. This was a practice started by the respected former finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, but I would go a step further. I would also publicize the incomes of all elected officials and high-level political appointees, along with their immediate families. Government duty should be a service to the people, not a means for generating personal wealth.

There is also a need for an independent judiciary that is not beholden to the political leadership. Corruption takes root when it is implicitly “sanctioned” by law.

Another way out is rising incomes. The United States experienced at least as much corruption among low-level public officials in the 19th and early 20th centuries as Nigeria does today. This is a sign that when those at the bottom trust that those at the top are not engaging in public service for their personal benefit, that petty corruption will begin to pass.

Nigeria is on the verge of joining the elite club of developed nations and economies. President Buhari must continue on the path of political and economic progress critical to keeping this African juggernaut moving in that direction.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2015/08/28/putting-nigeria-to-the-test-will-democracy-stick/