Shipping: "Crisis" or 'Wait-and-See" Mode'?
Osman Kaya Turan - OKT Shipping Ltd., Istanbul
OKT Denizcilik ve Ticaret Limited (ISTANBUL)
E-mail: o...@oktshipping.com
Shipping: “Crisis” or ‘Wait-and-See” Mode’?
The maritime industry has always been one of the most cyclical and sensitive sectors of the global economy. Freight rates, vessel values, orderbooks, repairs, conversions, and financing conditions react sharply even to the smallest shocks. As a result, the word crisis is almost instinctively uttered whenever volatility emerges.
But does today’s market really represent a crisis? Or is it rather a phase of uncertainty, hesitation, and a prevailing wait-and-see psychology?
Wait-and-See Psychology: Today’s Picture
The current market landscape reveals significant divergences among different segments:
· Segment divergence: Tanker and LNG freight rates are near record highs, while container and dry bulk markets remain under pressure.
· Investor behavior: The central dilemma is whether it’s time to enter the market. The question remains: is it a buying opportunity, or still too early?
· Financing: Banks are selective and interest rates are high, but funding channels are not completely closed.
· Asset values: Tankers are expensive, containers relatively cheap — yet buyers remain cautious.
· Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty: Route disruptions in the Red Sea and Black Sea, along with IMO and EU ETS rules, are delaying investment decisions.
In short, today’s environment is defined by timing risk. Those with strong cash positions prefer to wait.
Crisis Psychology: Lessons from Post-2008
A true crisis, as seen after 2008, hits all segments simultaneously and reshapes the industry’s mindset:
· Collapse across all segments: Tankers, containers, and bulk carriers operate at loss-making levels.
· Lay-ups and scrapping: Dozens of vessels idle in ports, with demolition activity accelerating.
· Financing freeze: Banks cut lending entirely; newbuilding and secondhand deals come to a halt.
· Panic sales: Shipowners dispose of vessels even at heavy losses.
· Industry sentiment: The focus shifts from seeking opportunities to mere survival.
In such times, preserving liquidity and staying afloat dominate all strategies.
Wait-and-See vs. Crisis — Comparative Table
Factor | Wait-and-See Mode (Today) | Crisis (Post-2008) |
Freight earnings | Strong in certain segments | Collapse across all segments |
Asset values | Tankers expensive, containers uncertain | Fire-sale levels, steep collapse |
Financing | Selective, costly but available | Almost entirely closed |
Investor mood | Waiting, looking for opportunities | Panic sales, liquidity focus |
Lay-up ratio | Minimal (except containers) | 10–20% of fleet idle |
Demolition | Normal/moderately high | Massive, market-clearing levels |
Orderbook | Low in tankers, heavy in containers | Cancellations, empty slots at shipyards |
Industry sentiment | “Too early or too late?” | “Survive at all costs” |
Conclusion: Managing Patience, Seizing Timing
Today’s shipping markets do not yet reflect a crisis. The industry remains cautious but intact: opportunities are still being monitored, and although capital is expensive, it is accessible. In a real crisis, by contrast, confidence collapses and strategy gives way to survival instincts.
For today’s maritime community, the challenge is not to avoid crisis, but to balance patience with strategic courage. Those who preserve financial resilience, manage risks effectively, and make decisions at the right time will not only weather the uncertainty but also re-emerge stronger when the cycle turns again.
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OKT Shipping Ltd. is the Türkiye’s leading provider of integrated shipyard & shipping services to complement its core Turkish & Worldwide Shipyards’ Representation business together with Shipbrokerage, Site Team Supervision and Research & Marine Consultancy.
In Istanbul - Türkiye, OKT Shipping creates a fertile environment for Worldwide ship owners and shipyards as well as finance institutions, by bringing together connections, know-how and expertise through its services. We are selective and only work with reputable and trustable yards and clients.
More than 30 years’ experience (https://oktshipping.com/about-us/management/) , OKT Shipping and their International partners serve top European, Turkish, American, Canadian and Far Eastern Shipping Companies for their yard selection and other services in Türkiye and Worldwide.
Our team are Naval Architects and ex Shipyard Top Managers has considerable experience in helping businesses to reply all your questions on docking & repairs in Türkiye and globally. We review and reply your questions for the sake of better understanding of our yards and working habits to achieve better results. Our represented shipyards list is constantly updated through common yard pool covering all European agent/broker partners, according to the benefits the yard can provide to Shipowners, the yards’ success and actual latest performance. If necessary, some shipyards removed from the list and being traced separate for a while only. Therefore, please contact us for our latest list when you have any serious enquiry and not to refer our earlier list.
As OKT Shipping Ltd., we also offer consultancy services for both new builds, secondhand ship acquisitions and we are also we are committed to providing optimal solutions for your large-scale special conversion projects. Furthermore, we are delighted to announce our ability to facilitate the establishment of EU ETS company accounts and oversee their management.
To learn more our activities in Türkiye & Worldwide and about this report, please contact:
Best Regards,
Osman Kaya TURAN
Managing Director, OKT Shipping & Trading Ltd.
A Global Preference
TURKISH & WORLDWIDE SHIPYARDS’ REPRESENTATION NEWBUILDING – DOCKING – CONVERSION – REPAIR - SNP
About OKT Shipping Limited
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Osman Kaya Turan - OKT Shipping Ltd., Istanbul
Subject: Invitation to Participate in OKT Maritime’s International Study on Market Perceptions
Dear Sir/Madam,
We are pleased to inform you that OKT Shipping Ltd. is conducting a concise international study aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of individual perspectives and assessments regarding the current state of the maritime market. The study seeks to capture diverse viewpoints from across the industry — including shipowners, brokers, shipyards, and supporting sectors — to better understand how today’s market is perceived by its stakeholders.
A summary report will be prepared upon completion of the study and shared exclusively with participants.
Participation is open to professionals from all backgrounds and experience levels within the maritime field. Responding to all questions is not required; you may focus on the topics where you believe your insights would be most valuable. We would particularly appreciate analytical reflections supported by your own professional experience and observations. Your contributions will play an important role in fostering greater sectoral awareness and in helping shape a shared, forward-looking perspective for the maritime industry.
We sincerely appreciate your time and contribution, and we look forward to receiving your valuable insights.
The deadline for submitting your responses to our below questions is on 28 October 2025.
General Market Perception |
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How would you describe the current overall condition of the maritime market? |
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What key factors influence your assessment above? |
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How would you evaluate the market’s evolution over the past five years? Please share your observations. |
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Do you consider the current market conditions favorable for investment? |
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What are the main parameters you consider when making this evaluation? |
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Opportunities and Risks |
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Where do you currently see the greatest opportunities within the maritime industry? |
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What risks concern you the most at present? |
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Which markets or vessel segments do you believe have the strongest growth potential in the coming years? |
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Which markets or vessel types, in your view, are likely to face a decline? |
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Operational and Commercial Outlook |
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How do you expect freight markets to trend in the near term? |
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As someone involved on the owner, broker, or shipyard side, how do you interpret the current market dynamics? |
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How do you perceive the balance between costs and revenues across the sector? |
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Technology and Transformation |
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How would you assess the impact of digitalization on the maritime industry? |
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How are new environmental regulations (EEXI, CII, etc.) reshaping market behavior and investment strategies? |
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Regional and Segment-Based Perspectives |
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How do you view the current and future market outlook across regions such as the Black Sea, Mediterranean, Far East, or Atlantic? |
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What are your thoughts on recent trends in tanker, bulk carrier, container, or offshore segments? |
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Future Expectations |
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What is your personal outlook for the market over the next 12 months? |
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Looking a decade ahead, do you expect the industry to be stronger than today or to contract? |
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Human Capital and Experience |
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How would you rate the overall level of professional experience among industry employees? (Highly experienced / Moderate / Insufficient) |
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In your opinion, what are the strongest aspects of human capital in the maritime sector? |
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Which areas, in your view, face the most significant talent or experience gaps? |
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Leadership and Management Quality |
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How would you evaluate the leadership capabilities of managers you have worked with or observed? (Excellent / Good / Average / Weak) |
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How transparent and effective are management teams in their decision-making processes? |
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Do you find the crisis management and problem-solving capabilities of sector leaders to be adequate? |
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Employer and Entrepreneur Profile |
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How do you assess the strategic vision and contribution of shipowners and entrepreneurs to the industry’s development? |
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How would you describe their approach toward employees? (Supportive / Neutral / Lacking motivation) |
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To what extent do you think maritime employers adopt innovative thinking and modern management practices? |
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Employee Quality and Motivation |
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How would you evaluate employees’ ability, professionalism, and performance in fulfilling their duties? |
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What are your observations regarding motivation and commitment among maritime professionals? |
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Which areas do you believe require greater focus on training or professional development? |
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General Reflections |
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What concrete steps could be taken to improve the quality of employees, managers, and employers across the industry? |
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Based on your personal experience, what are your recommendations for strengthening the human factor within the sector? |
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Personal Experience and Perspective |
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How many years of total professional experience do you have in the maritime industry? |
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During your career, which period would you describe as the best and the most challenging? |
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How does your company or professional environment adapt to changing market conditions? |
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Which indicators do you monitor most closely when assessing the market? |
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When forming an opinion about the market, do you rely more on analytical data or personal intuition? |
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Would you like to share any additional thoughts, insights, or expectations regarding this study? |
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Thank you for taking the time to share your valuable insights and experience.
