Shipping: "Crisis" or 'Wait-and-See" Mode'?
Osman Kaya Turan - OKT Shipping Ltd., Istanbul
OKT Denizcilik ve Ticaret Limited (ISTANBUL)
E-mail: o...@oktshipping.com
Shipping: “Crisis” or ‘Wait-and-See” Mode’?
The maritime industry has always been one of the most cyclical and sensitive sectors of the global economy. Freight rates, vessel values, orderbooks, repairs, conversions, and financing conditions react sharply even to the smallest shocks. As a result, the word crisis is almost instinctively uttered whenever volatility emerges.
But does today’s market really represent a crisis? Or is it rather a phase of uncertainty, hesitation, and a prevailing wait-and-see psychology?
Wait-and-See Psychology: Today’s Picture
The current market landscape reveals significant divergences among different segments:
· Segment divergence: Tanker and LNG freight rates are near record highs, while container and dry bulk markets remain under pressure.
· Investor behavior: The central dilemma is whether it’s time to enter the market. The question remains: is it a buying opportunity, or still too early?
· Financing: Banks are selective and interest rates are high, but funding channels are not completely closed.
· Asset values: Tankers are expensive, containers relatively cheap — yet buyers remain cautious.
· Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty: Route disruptions in the Red Sea and Black Sea, along with IMO and EU ETS rules, are delaying investment decisions.
In short, today’s environment is defined by timing risk. Those with strong cash positions prefer to wait.
Crisis Psychology: Lessons from Post-2008
A true crisis, as seen after 2008, hits all segments simultaneously and reshapes the industry’s mindset:
· Collapse across all segments: Tankers, containers, and bulk carriers operate at loss-making levels.
· Lay-ups and scrapping: Dozens of vessels idle in ports, with demolition activity accelerating.
· Financing freeze: Banks cut lending entirely; newbuilding and secondhand deals come to a halt.
· Panic sales: Shipowners dispose of vessels even at heavy losses.
· Industry sentiment: The focus shifts from seeking opportunities to mere survival.
In such times, preserving liquidity and staying afloat dominate all strategies.
Wait-and-See vs. Crisis — Comparative Table
Factor | Wait-and-See Mode (Today) | Crisis (Post-2008) |
Freight earnings | Strong in certain segments | Collapse across all segments |
Asset values | Tankers expensive, containers uncertain | Fire-sale levels, steep collapse |
Financing | Selective, costly but available | Almost entirely closed |
Investor mood | Waiting, looking for opportunities | Panic sales, liquidity focus |
Lay-up ratio | Minimal (except containers) | 10–20% of fleet idle |
Demolition | Normal/moderately high | Massive, market-clearing levels |
Orderbook | Low in tankers, heavy in containers | Cancellations, empty slots at shipyards |
Industry sentiment | “Too early or too late?” | “Survive at all costs” |
Conclusion: Managing Patience, Seizing Timing
Today’s shipping markets do not yet reflect a crisis. The industry remains cautious but intact: opportunities are still being monitored, and although capital is expensive, it is accessible. In a real crisis, by contrast, confidence collapses and strategy gives way to survival instincts.
For today’s maritime community, the challenge is not to avoid crisis, but to balance patience with strategic courage. Those who preserve financial resilience, manage risks effectively, and make decisions at the right time will not only weather the uncertainty but also re-emerge stronger when the cycle turns again.
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OKT Shipping Ltd. is the Türkiye’s leading provider of integrated shipyard & shipping services to complement its core Turkish & Worldwide Shipyards’ Representation business together with Shipbrokerage, Site Team Supervision and Research & Marine Consultancy.
In Istanbul - Türkiye, OKT Shipping creates a fertile environment for Worldwide ship owners and shipyards as well as finance institutions, by bringing together connections, know-how and expertise through its services. We are selective and only work with reputable and trustable yards and clients.
More than 30 years’ experience (https://oktshipping.com/about-us/management/) , OKT Shipping and their International partners serve top European, Turkish, American, Canadian and Far Eastern Shipping Companies for their yard selection and other services in Türkiye and Worldwide.
Our team are Naval Architects and ex Shipyard Top Managers has considerable experience in helping businesses to reply all your questions on docking & repairs in Türkiye and globally. We review and reply your questions for the sake of better understanding of our yards and working habits to achieve better results. Our represented shipyards list is constantly updated through common yard pool covering all European agent/broker partners, according to the benefits the yard can provide to Shipowners, the yards’ success and actual latest performance. If necessary, some shipyards removed from the list and being traced separate for a while only. Therefore, please contact us for our latest list when you have any serious enquiry and not to refer our earlier list.
As OKT Shipping Ltd., we also offer consultancy services for both new builds, secondhand ship acquisitions and we are also we are committed to providing optimal solutions for your large-scale special conversion projects. Furthermore, we are delighted to announce our ability to facilitate the establishment of EU ETS company accounts and oversee their management.
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Best Regards,
Osman Kaya TURAN
Managing Director, OKT Shipping & Trading Ltd.
A Global Preference
TURKISH & WORLDWIDE SHIPYARDS’ REPRESENTATION NEWBUILDING – DOCKING – CONVERSION – REPAIR - SNP
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