Sav Morn News: Tropical storm Gabrielle looms off Atlantic coast
neillh...@earthlink.net
HURRICANE
A seventh named tropical storm forms in the Atlantic after a period of quiet
A drier atmosphere over the Atlantic has protected us from a busy hurricane season, for now.
Jillian MagtotoSavannah Morning News
- Tropical Storm Gabrielle has formed in the Atlantic, ending a 20-day period of inactivity.
- Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane but is currently not expected to reach the U.S. mainland.
- This year's hurricane season has been unusually quiet, partly due to drier air and strong winds.
Our eerily peaceful 20-day hiatus of Atlantic storm activity has ended since short-lived post-tropical cyclone Fernand formed on August 28 and dissipated just five days later.
This morning, the National Weather Service announced the formation of this year's seventh named storm: Tropical Storm Gabrielle. In four days, the NWS forecasts, the cyclone will likely become a hurricane. But it’s not well-organized quite yet.
Gabrielle's center is still ill-defined, and its direction remains highly uncertain, according to NWS’ forecast discussion. Gabrielle is still about 500 miles away from the Caribbeans' Leeward Islands, halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands.
With maximum sustained winds of over 45 mph, Gabrielle won’t get much stronger until the weekend, when gradual intensification will likely begin.
“Current projections indicate a low likelihood of the storm reaching the U.S. mainland,” CBS 17 Meteorologist Ross Whitley wrote in a Facebook post at around 11 a.m. “However, it may pass uncomfortably close to Bermuda.”
Tropical Storm Gabrielle arrives as the Atlantic passes its expected peak of hurricane season last week on Sept. 10. And since category 5 Hurricane Erin that missed U.S. landfall, it’s been quiet. This year is the second year since 1950 without a named Atlantic storm between Aug. 29 and Sept. 16.
"This pronounced quiet period is quite remarkable at this time of year given that it coincides with the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season," stated a report from Colorado State University (CSU). "The Atlantic has struggled with producing deep convection this hurricane season."
More: Tropical Storm Erin is intensifying, where it will land is still unclear
Storms are getting dried out
Originally, CSU forecasters projected a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season partially due to “warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic." While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also projected a warmer year with higher hurricane activity, it turns out this season has also been drier.
“Drier air is inhibiting deep convection,” the CSU report said.
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Abnormally strong trade winds across the tropical Atlantic and a pronounced tropical upper tropospheric trough in the western subtropical Atlantic have produced dry air that interrupts the strengthening of moisture-driven hurricanes. The winds and troughs have created vertical wind shear, or changes in wind speeds and direction that tear a storm apart by pulling in cooler, drier air from the environment.
"Vertical wind shear in the western Atlantic has increased markedly" in late August and early September, the report said.
The report also cited less rainfall over west Africa, where storms begin developing, as a contributor to the quieter Atlantic season.
That being said, the year isn't over.
“We advise considerable caution on writing off the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season,” the report said. “As we saw last year, Atlantic [tropical cyclone] seasons can change from quiet to busy in a hurry.”
The National Weather Service’s guidance on how to prepare for hurricane season can be found at weather.gov/safety/hurricane.
Jillian Magtoto covers climate change and the environment in coastal Georgia. You can reach her at jmag...@gannett.com.
This reporting content is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation, Prentice Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners.