On 2022-02-20, John Bowes <bowes...@gmail.com
Have you left the URL out?
> I can hear Rich lying about fake news. But there are some facts in
> here that support the call for the end to mandates because
> they're not achieving anything!
> THE HAPS
> The protest around parliament continues to grow. The Police say
> they are unable to act, the Speaker and Government do not know
> how to act.
Classic! Good wording
> What is clear is Jacinda Ardern’s ‘kindness’ brand is gone,
> and better leadership will be needed for New Zealand to navigate the impasse.
> Meanwhile David Seymour gets down to to why co-governance
> is incompatible with universal human rights in an interview with Audrey Young.
> THE DATA
> Yesterday ACT released numbers derived from the Ministry of Health
> website that show how many people who test positive for COVID are vaccinated,
> partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated. The full release with sources
> and calculations is reproduced below for Free Press readers, along with
> some commentary about the predictable tut tutting from the media and public health intelligentsia.
> Vaccination rates are making little difference to infection rates
> under Omicron,
> which means it’s time to ask if the benefits of
> vaccine rules are still worth the costs to individuals, and
> social cohesion overall. Based on new evidence, it may be time to
> move on from Government vaccine mandates.
> Taking the infection numbers of the past week by vaccination status,
> there is now little difference in the likelihood of a fully, partially,
> or unvaccinated person testing positive with Omicron.
Yes, Omicron has all but pushe out Delta.
> This data does not mean that vaccination is not useful or effective.
True, it does decrease the severity of the disease, lowers risk of death.
> Vaccination is still your best bet for staying out of hospital,
> but even strongly pro-vaccine people like me have to confront what new
> evidence says about infection rates.
Hey, also about Natural Immunity. This is the target, the gold standard. Use
vaccines to lower risk of death while natural immunity is aquired.
> In the eight days from Friday 11-Friday 18, when Omicron cases really took
> off, there were 347 new unvaccinated cases, 140 new partially vaccinated
> cases, and 7,085 new fully vaccinated cases. These figures are not reported
> transparently, and have to be derived from the Ministry of Health Website
> (see notes below for more detail).
Agreed, we have been on about this have we not Willy.
> Of course, there are far more vaccinated than unvaccinated people, so the
> raw numbers do not tell the full story. For every 100,000 unvaccinated persons,
> 225 tested positive. For every 100,000 partially vaccinated persons,
> 204 tested positive, and for every 100,000 fully vaccinated 178 persons
> tested positive. (N.B., updated to include Saturday’s cases, these numbers
> are now 267, 220, and 224)
> There are a number of possible explanations for why numbers between
> infection rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated people should appear so similar.
Surely this shows that the vaccines are next to useless at stopping
infection. The rates are the same, or near enough.
>For example, vaccinated people might be more trusting of or able to access the
> healthcare system, and therefore be more likely to take a test than unvaccinated people.
> None of the explanations can really explain the similarity without accepting
> that vaccination makes a weak difference at best to whether a person tests
> positive for Omicron, however.
Well as it is all Omicron a positive test will be Omicron. However we know
what is meant.
> These new figures show how Omicron is changing the game, even since this
> time last month. On January 19, the Ministry of Health website reported
> half of all COVID cases up to that date had been unvaccinated and a
> quarter partially vaccinated. In the past week there have been 20 times
> more vaccinated cases than unvaccinated.
> Those historical figures will be influenced by early stages of the pandemic,
> when nobody at all was vaccinated. However it is nearly impossible to know by
> how much with the data the Ministry of Health lets us have.
The people of NZ have paid for it to be collected, why can not we see it.
The whole lot in raw form. Follow the science yes.
> In any event the past data does not change the reality we face now,
> Omicron is changing the numbers.
Yes Sir re.
> These figures are consistent with international evidence. Australia
> has similar vaccination rates to New Zealand’s but has experienced >
> widespread Omicron outbreaks well beyond those who are vaccinated.
Of course this is the case. Omicron just infects very well.
> In the UK unadjusted rates of infection show for every 100,000
> vaccinated people, cases are 2-3 times more prevalent than for those with three shots (see p44 here).
> It would be helpful if the Ministry of Health would start
> transparently publishing data for vaccination rates.
> At present, they update the cumulative number of vaccinated,
> partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated cases each day, but
> the number of new cases each day can only be derived by
> saving the data and calculating the change from day to day.
The history data is lacking. I have found this annoying at times.
> We face enormous mistrust and dissatisfaction with Government
> due to this kind of poor transparency that suppresses free
> and open debate. The Government should insist on the Ministry
> of Health making the data transparent, and even providing
> analysis so that any confounding variables can also be understood.
Agree totally. All the data, in it raw form released in a timely manner. Yes
> More importantly, it may be that Government policy needs
> to change direction. It is difficult to argue that there is
> not widespread transmission amongst vaccinated people.
I think that no one is now claiming that the vaccines do a good job of
preventing Omicron infection. The lowering risk of death remains.
> It seems unlikely that the 347 unvaccinated cases infected 7,085 others,
> around 20 each, but vaccinated people did not infect each other.
> This is particularly the case given vaccine mandates have largely
> segregated unvaccinated people from vaccinated people.
In certain area, conditions. Unvaccinated people are allowed to mingle.
> People have been led to believe for over a year that other people
> being vaccinated would protect them from being being infected themselves.
> It appears that is no longer true, or at least the effect has been
> dramatically weakened.
> All of this leads to a simple conclusion. If there is little difference
> in the rates of infection and spread of Omicron between vaccinated
> and unvaccinated people, then what is the point of segregating them?
> From the opposite perspective, if segregation is increasingly costly
> and undesirable, what sort of difference in infection rates would we
> require to justify it, and is the difference between 178/100,000
> and 225/100,000 enough?
All a bit irrelevant as Omicron is sweeping over the masses, vaxed or
unvaxed, infection happens to both.
> It is time to weigh up the costs that vaccine requirements are placing
> on individuals, on workplaces, and on social cohesion, and ask whether
> policies that force vaccination in various settings are still worth it.
> The case is becoming stronger by the day that they are not as Omicron
> spreads between vaccinated and unvaccinated in a way it did not do
> with earlier variants, and policies designed to prevent unvaccinated
> transmission are no longer worth it. It's time to move on.
Some would say a long time ago.