NCEA Prediction Tool

[sheridan....@ncg.school.nz]

Kia ora

I've heard that somewhere out there, there is a prediction tool that we can put in our Y9 easttle/PAT results and it will predict what level the students could achieve at NCEA.

Has anyone heard about this? If yes, can you please point me in the right direction.

Cheers

Sheridan

[Jake Wills]

Kia Ora,

Assay has some columns in the student table that make predictions around how many credits a student is going to get... but these aren't based off PAT / asTTle.

The formula is pretty simple though, so is something you could just do from KAMAR exports... it is current credits at correct level + (credits passed this year / credits sat this year * credits available)

It does two separate columns... one that only includes internal credits, and one that also includes external credits... this way teachers can do a judgement call as to how likely individuals are to pass the exams.

Other parts that assay has:

• ratings based on PATs... it uses the PAT as a predictor (Stanine 1-3 = N, Stanine 4-6 = A, Stanine 7-9 = M) to see if students are over or under achieving according to their "potential".
• growth dashboard shows how students track across time... so if they are under performing where they should be relative to their cohort you can see that.

So not exactly what you were talking about ... I haven't seen any other predictor tools that do what you're describing but would be really curious to know if they do exist!

Ngā manaakitanga (best wishes),

Jake Wills

Assistant Principal

Kāpiti College

[s...@mcneill.co.nz]

Hi Sheridan,

At StAC we built a 'predictive' tool, which was really a manual analysis of student performance over a period of time and comparing results from Yr13 Scholarship performance and looking backwards at how those students had performed in Yr9 MidYis testing (Which I know not all schools do).

This proved remarkably accurate (although perhaps not surprising).... I can't recall the specifics, but it was something like if a student scored approx 130 or above in a given MidYis test . then it would mark them as a likely successful scholarship candidate in Yr13.... again, not hugely sophisticated but gave Deans etc a chance to shoulder tap kids in advance to encourage them to perhaps have a crack at Scholarship in Yr12 as a good prep for concerted effort in Yr13. Usual caveats apply of not reading too much into a one off test/exam performance.

Here are two examples:

STUDENT A  (squeaks into A band mIdYis but unlikely to be a strong scholarship candidate, but consistent Excellence in Yr11/12)

Vocabulary                      111        A Band

Maths                               107        B Band

Skills                                  100        B Band

Non Verbal Skills             115        A Band

Overall                              112        A Band

(A Band starts at 110)

STUDENT B (finished with 5 scholarships, 2 outstanding in Yr13)

Vocabulary                      131        A Band

Maths                               138        A Band

Skills                                  115        A Band

Non-verbal skills              142        A Band

Overall                              139        A Band

MidYis is an interesting standardized test that is repeated in Yr10 (and I think Yr11) to try to determine a 'value add' score, but you do have to pay to get students sitting it.

Cheers