Unconventional natural gas
is often described as game-changing and transformative, a revolution
heralding a golden age of cheap, plentiful energy for a
resource-constrained world.
But only if it makes it out of the ground.
As
shown by local bans in the US and Canada, national moratoriums in
France and Bulgaria, and tighter regulation in Australia and the UK, the
global anti-fracking movement has mounted an effective campaign against
the extraction of unconventional gas through hydraulic fracturing.
Meanwhile,
the oil and gas industry has largely failed to appreciate social and
political risks, and has repeatedly been caught off guard by the
sophistication, speed and influence of anti-fracking activists.
What the anti-fracking movement wants
The anti-fracking movement wants four main things.
First,
it wants a better deal in terms of economic opportunity, taxation, and
compensation. Moves by some local governments to extract 'impact fees'
fall into this camp.
Second, anti-fracking activists want further
study of the environmental, economic and health and safety impacts of
intensive unconventional gas development, partly to inform regulatory
and tax policies but also as a stalling tactic to impede the industry's
expansion.
Third, some strongly opposed to the industry - whether
on water quality or climate protection grounds - want moratoriums and
outright bans on drilling activity.
Finally, and most commonly,
the anti-fracking movement wants tighter regulation of unconventional
gas development. From Pennsylvania to Poland, oil and gas regulation is
being updated to address issues raised by hydraulic fracturing and
increase environmental controls.
How the anti-fracking movement operates
The
movement's grassroots foundation is reflected in the hundreds of
community-based anti-fracking groups that have emerged worldwide.
Environmental groups have played a key role in subsequently organising
and professionalising grassroots activists, especially in North America
and Western Europe.
The anti-fracking movement is particularly
adept at organising online campaigns through social media. The extensive
use of free or low-cost online platforms such as Wordpress and Facebook
has both facilitated grassroots participation and increased
organisational efficiency.
Online communications also enable a
further pillar of the anti-fracking movement: global networking. This
occurs through peer-to-peer activist networks, international
environmental NGO campaigns, and shared ideological and political
frameworks.
Some activists and groups also believe direct action
against the industry is necessary. Direct action is intended to draw
media attention to the anti-fracking movement, motivate the
anti-fracking opposition, and physically disrupt operations. Project
site blockades, in particular, have emerged as a favoured low-cost,
high-impact tactic.
What's next for the anti-fracking movement
2012
is likely to set the high-water mark for the anti-fracking movement.
Regulatory reviews concluded in key battlegrounds have set the tone for
stricter long-term management of the unconventional gas industry,
technological innovations are reducing environmental impacts, and the
anti-fracking movement itself is grappling with the consequences of its
successes. How will the movement adapt?
First, it will seek out
new geographies outside North America and Europe where unconventional
gas development is just beginning. The movement may be able to tap into
existing indigenous rights, labour, water and environmental concerns in
Argentina, India, Mexico and Ukraine, to name a few prospective
countries.
The anti-fracking movement has also started to engage a
wider set of policy issues related to energy and the environment.
Partly, this is a natural outcome of its close organisational and
ideological links to the climate change movement. But it also reflects a
perceived need to maintain momentum and block attempts to roll back
regulation of the industry.
Finally, parts of the movement could
radicalise in response to both internal fragmentation and the spread of
the industry. As with the conventional oil and gas, coal, nuclear,
timber and other sectors, this could make unconventional oil and gas a
target of more radical direct action.
How should the industry respond?
Parts
of the anti-fracking movement will never be reconciled to fossil fuel
extraction, whether through hydraulic fracturing or conventional
drilling. But the industry can take steps to offset social and political
opposition, both now and in the future.
First and foremost, the
industry needs to acknowledge the legitimacy of local grievances.
Movements towards greater transparency and voluntary disclosure, however
grudging, are a positive step in this direction.
Second, the
industry needs a broad-spectrum political and social engagement
strategy. This means laying stable - even if expensive - groundwork with
local communities, especially in terms of mechanisms to register and
redress grievances.
Third, the industry needs to continue to make
good faith efforts to reduce adverse impacts in terms of water
pollution, health and safety, noise, erosion, road damage and so on.
Finally,
the industry should create more winners by widely distributing the
direct benefits of gas development. For most communities, this means
procuring as much as possible locally, providing jobs and training to
local workers, paying required taxes, and - crucially - making long-term
investments that deliver a sustained economic boost.