Fwd: Why the US decided to normalize relations with Belarus - Vedomosti

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Subject:	Why the US decided to normalize relations with Belarus - Vedomosti
Date:	Fri, 12 Sep 2025 14:32:27 -0600
From:	Natalya Panteleyeva <natalya.p...@gmail.com>

September 11, 18:09

Why the US decided to normalize relations with Belarus

Washington Restarts Direct Contacts with Moscow's Ally, and Minsk Has Nothing Against It

Gleb Mishutin

Ilya Lakstygal

White House spokesman John Cole visited Belarus and de facto moved relations between the two countries to a new stage of development

White House spokesman John Cole visited Belarus and de facto moved relations between the two countries to a new stage of development / Press service of the President of Belarus

The United States intends to open an embassy in Minsk and fully normalize relations with Belarus. This was stated on September 11 following a meeting with the President of the Republic Alexander Lukashenko by John Cole, Deputy Special Representative of the United States Keith Kellogg, BelTA reports. The US Embassy in the Belarusian capital has not actually been operating since February 2022, the consular section does not issue visas, but the building remains under appropriate protection.

According to Cole, the return of the embassy to Minsk is a matter of the near future. The meeting with Lukashenko, according to the American, was productive, and the strengthening of economic and political cooperation was discussed. "The presidents of Belarus and the United States are leaders who are doing everything to normalize our relations and focus not on differences, but on common points," he emphasized. 

According to BelTA, the main goal of Cole's visit was to announce the lifting of sanctions against the Belarusian airline Belavia. Cole acknowledged that the remaining restrictive measures would be discussed at further negotiations. The decision to lift sanctions against Belavia has already been made by the US State Department, the US Department of Commerce and the Treasury and has already been officially approved, including on Trump's personal initiative. Footage of Cole stating this was published by the Telegram channel Pool of the First. As of 17:00 Moscow time, however, Belavia continued to be listed on the sanctions lists of OFAC, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, which is responsible for the restrictions.

As Cole, who also serves as Deputy Assistant to President Donald Trump , noted, relations between Washington and Minsk are now "good, but not great", and there is potential for improvement. The White House representative also noted that there may be disagreements between the countries, but "they should not be brought to the surface". According to Cole, Trump is ready for the final normalization of bilateral relations.

US lifts sanctions on Belavia airline

Politics / International news

The United States imposed sectoral restrictions on Belarus in 2021 in connection with the violent suppression of protests in 2020, when Alexander Lukashenko officially won the presidential election again . The restrictions were strengthened in 2021, when an incident occurred with a Ryanair plane: the plane was forcibly landed at Minsk airport, and opposition blogger Roman Protasevich, who was flying on it, was detained by Belarusian authorities. The US added Belavia to the sanctions list in 2023 under the presidency of Democrat Joe Biden.

Cole also handed Lukashenko a letter from Trump, in which the American president congratulated his Belarusian counterpart on his birthday (it was August 30 – Vedomosti), wished him health, well-being and expressed confidence in further joint constructive work. Trump also gave Lukashenko a gift – cufflinks with an image of the White House. In response, Lukashenko said that he “will not remain in debt,” BelTA quotes him as saying.

The release of Belarusian prisoners turned out to be timed to coincide with Cole's visit to Belarus; this topic was also raised during his talks with Lukashenko. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda reported on the social network X that Minsk had released 52 political prisoners, as Trump called them. According to Nauseda, they include opposition figures, protesters, including citizens of foreign countries (six from Lithuania). In addition to Lithuanians, citizens of Great Britain, Germany, France, Poland and Latvia were in Belarusian prisons and have now been released. According to Nauseda, all 52 people have already crossed the Belarusian-Lithuanian border.

Causes, motives and context of the "warming"

Cole's current visit is not the first trip of US representatives to Belarus in 2025. In June, Kellogg, who specializes in contacts with the EU and Kiev in the context of the Ukrainian settlement, visited Minsk in his company. As Reuters reported, that visit could be seen as a step accelerating the start of peace talks to end the Ukrainian conflict. As a result of those talks, a group of 14 Belarusian prisoners was released, including Sergei Tikhanovsky, an opposition blogger and husband of former Belarusian presidential candidate in the 2020 elections Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.

Leading researcher at the Institute of International Studies (IIS) of MGIMO Nikolai Silaev believes that the conditional "warming" of relations between the US and Belarus is not connected with the settlement in Ukraine. Potentially, mediation will not be in demand until some detailed agreements appear. "And, as is known, Trump himself wants to be a mediator [on the conflict in Ukraine], he does not need Lukashenko for this. And even the Minsk agreements of 2014-2015 were not prepared by Lukashenko - he emphasized that Minsk is just a platform."

Trump is now trying to reset relations with Belarus, implementing theses proposed by relevant American experts, such as Mark Episkopos from the Quincy Institute, notes ISKRAN senior research fellow Pavel Koshkin.

It was not until the spring of 2025 that Quincy’s representatives were in Minsk, and in mid-June Episkopos published an article in The National Interest titled “Can Belarus Be Turned Around?” In it, the author promoted the idea that improving relations between Washington and Minsk would be beneficial “for security and stability in Eastern Europe as the United States prioritizes Asia.” The article argues that, in addition to efforts to resolve Ukraine, the Trump team “needs to seize short-term opportunities to advance U.S. interests” in the region. And in it, “the biggest window is a potential agreement to normalize U.S. relations with Belarus, which plays a key role in relations between Russia and the West,” and which can be called a “balcony” – a bridgehead between Moscow and NATO. Episkopos calls the West’s approach after the events of 2020 “autopilot” towards maximum tightening of pressure, which has only led to “aggressive import substitution” in Belarus and its “distancing from the West.”

Koshkin believes that the US sees Belarus as an intermediary for communication and influence on Russia due to Lukashenko’s trusting relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The Trump administration has obviously found the current moment advantageous for exerting a kind of “psychological pressure” on Russia, the Americanist believes: “This is a chance to ‘mirror’ Moscow in ‘its backyard’, since it has tried to strengthen its ties with Cuba and the countries of South America – ‘the US backyard’.”

In the Eastern European region, Belarus is an important country for the United States, which borders Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine – three of their allies, Silaev notes. According to him, the Americans made their first “approach to the projectile” during Trump’s first term, when former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk. At that time, Silaev notes, the interests of Washington and Minsk coincided: Lukashenko was looking for ways to reduce his dependence on Russia, while the Americans and Europeans wanted to tear Belarus away from Russia. “Lukashenko played this game until it became clear in 2020 that the West wanted to tear Belarus away from Russia without Lukashenko in power. And now, apparently, the United States is arguing that since they failed to overthrow him, it would be good to get closer – the costs are zero anyway, and Lukashenko wants separate relations with the West, not in the context of Russian policy,” Silaev explains.

At the same time, Silaev believes that Moscow will not condemn Minsk for meetings with US representatives, but will rather publicly call this a sign of them overcoming “old prejudices.” Russia will also welcome the lifting of sanctions against Belarus, since it benefits from not waging an economic war against an ally. “But Moscow will be very careful to ensure that the Belarusian authorities do not sabotage integration with Russia,” Silaev notes.

In addition to such pragmatic considerations, Koshkin also admits that Trump’s “sporting” interest may be a motive for “normalization” with Minsk: “He likes to show off that he can find a common language with the “bad guys.” It’s a peculiar way to assert himself and demonstrate his masculinity.” Silaev agrees that “autocrats,” to which Lukashenko is considered in the West, do not bother Trump, and this is a new feature of American foreign policy.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2025/09/11/1138725-pochemu-ssha-reshili 

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