Fwd: [ICAN] New French nuclear doctrine speech AND cooperation with Germany - Talking Points
Ellen Thomas
HI everyone,
Thanks to Jean Marie Collin for keeping us sharp and focused on this new nuclear doctrine. With his help, we put together some talking points and a quick article on the ICAN site.
What happened:
Macron delivered a speech at the nuclear submarine base in Brest, he said he would increase the french arsenals for the first time in decades. outlining an expanded role in Europe for the French nuclear arsenal. France is participating in a nuclear arms race.
Macron said the new posture could “provide for the temporary deployment of elements of our strategic air forces to allied countries,” but said there would be no sharing of decision-making with any other nation regarding the use of the nuclear weapons.
Talks about such arrangements have started with Britain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark, Macron said.
Macron added that France would no longer be disclosing details on its nuclear stockpile.
In a pre-speech document released to the press, France indicated that a "nuclear strike could be carried out as a warning”.
In a joint declaration issued today, President Macron and Chancellor Merz have agreed to increase French-German cooperation, including “German conventional participation in French nuclear exercises and joint visits to strategic sites” and “consultations regarding the appropriate mix of conventional, missile defence and French nuclear capabilities.” The same document reiterates existing NATO language on nuclear weapons, and commitments to the NPT (though does not, notably, commit them to the aim of nuclear disarmament, even with conditions).
Talking points:
France announced a new nuclear doctrine today, increasing the size and scope of its nuclear arsenal. France is de facto committing to a new nuclear arms race.
Increasing the role of nuclear weapons, and engaging in talks about new nuclear arrangements are an incitement to proliferation and no country can afford the inevitable consequences of a new nuclear arms race.
France has the fourth largest nuclear arsenal in the world, and spent over $6 billion in 2024. In the statement, President Macron indicated that France would no longer be disclosing details about its nuclear arsenal. While transparency is not a substitute for disarmament, it is a risk reduction and confidence building measure that can help reduce the chance of accidental nuclear launches.
In a joint declaration, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz agreed to expand cooperation, including German participation in French nuclear exercises. The statement reiterates commitments to NATO and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, but notably avoids any mention of nuclear disarmament (or their obligations). “Deterrence” is being stretched to justify escalation.
France indicated a nuclear first strike could be used as a “warning.” That’s not deterrence, it is proof the concept is failed. When nuclear weapons are framed as usable tools, the risk of catastrophe increases.
The pre-speech document released to the press included troubling indication of items, including the possibility that a "nuclear strike could be carried out as a warning”, while this came with caveats, it reinforces a worrying trend, articulated by some leaders, that a limited nuclear strike would be justifiable or within the bounds of International Humanitarian Law.
France and Germany are expanding the role of nuclear weapons without advancing nuclear disarmament, at a moment when the world needs the opposite.
I’m looking forward to more from Jean-Marie and other colleagues to build on this,
Best,
Susi
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