Punchbowl AM: Trump’s $1.5 trillion Pentagon dream unravels
Ellen Thomas
Meredith Dodson (she/her)
Senior Director of Public Policy
202.223.2532 x4
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Sent: Wednesday, June 10, 2026 5:12 AM
To: Meredith Dodson <MDo...@chn.org>
Subject: ☀️ AM: Thune's unhappy summer
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Thune who? Trump leaves the majority leader out
Happy Wednesday morning.
President Donald Trump has created lots of problems on Capitol Hill. And increasingly, he’s leaving Senate Majority Leader John Thune on the sidelines as he tries to solve them.
When Trump was looking to coordinate with Hill Republicans last week over the “anti-weaponization fund” standing in the way of the GOP’s $70 billion immigration enforcement package, he called Speaker Mike Johnson down to the White House — not Thune.
It happened this week, too. Johnson met with Trump on Tuesday at the White House amid the impasse over FISA Section 702. This situation was prompted by Trump’s appointment of Bill Pulte, an intel neophyte and MAGA warrior, to be acting director of national intelligence. Thune wasn’t there again.
The problem with this strategy: These are Senate problems. It was Senate Republicans who revolted over the anti-weaponization fund. It’s Senate Democrats who are standing in the way of a Section 702 reauthorization ahead of Friday’s deadline.
Yet Trump appears to be boxing out Thune, who isn’t changing his tactics to suit the president. The reasons for this underscore the stark differences between how Thune and Johnson operate, as well as Trump’s frustrations with the Senate.
Case in point: Thune told reporters Tuesday that he hadn’t discussed the FISA crisis with Trump, but rather with a White House official who “cares a lot about this.” Thune has said all week that he doesn’t know what the White House will end up doing to break the FISA logjam — even though Thune has made his preference clear.
The real issue here is that Thune has to say “no” to Trump a lot. And second-term Trump clearly doesn’t like this at all. Thune can’t — and won’t — blow up the filibuster. Thune won’t end the “blue-slip” practice that allows Democrats to tank judicial nominations. Thune can’t pass the SAVE America Act. Thune can’t stop GOP senators from bashing the anti-weaponization fund. And Thune won’t fire Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, despite repeated Trump demands to do so.
Plus, Thune — while tall and handsome, which Trump likes — isn’t Johnson, who always sides with Trump, to the chagrin of pockets in his conference. Thune can’t seem to come up with the affirmative answer that Trump wants. Most of the time, it’s on purpose.
“The speaker and the president have a very close relationship,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Johnson’s deputy. “I’m not as familiar with his relationship with Thune. But Mike and the president talk a lot.”
Thune is nothing if not direct — both to reporters and to the administration — about how Trump should get out of the various logjams the president often puts himself in. It’s what many in the Senate Republican Conference want from Thune, who has been in the GOP leadership for several years.
On the other hand, Johnson rarely publicly gives Trump advice. The speaker has been quiet about how Trump should solve the FISA impasse.
Thune, though, has been openly pushing the White House to name a permanent DNI nominee to unlock Democratic votes to extend the key 702 authority. Johnson’s meeting with Trump didn’t seem to move the needle, as Trump doubled down on Pulte shortly after.
The awkward dynamic reflects Thune and Johnson’s divergent leadership styles and incentive structures. And it’s a direct result of the tensions between Thune and Trump over the last few months. Trump even helped defeat Republican Sens. Bill Cassidy (La.) and John Cornyn (Texas), making life tougher for Thune.
“Thune has to take the arrows from the outside,” said a GOP senator who spends a lot of time with Trump and was granted anonymity to candidly assess the situation. “But if I were him, I’d much rather take those arrows from Benny Johnson and Scott Pressler than from my own members.”
Thune derives much of his power from his conference, not Trump. Johnson derives a good deal of his power from being close to the president.
The Thune-Trump dynamic. Aside from minor jabs here and there, Trump hasn’t lashed out at Thune or come close to calling for him to be replaced as leader. There’s little appetite for such a move within the Senate GOP Conference, even among Thune’s critics.
We spoke with multiple Senate Republicans who meet with Trump in private. These senators said they’ve never heard Trump badmouth Thune directly, aside from expressing general frustration about the Senate’s filibuster, which Trump has loathed since first becoming president in 2017.
Thune acknowledged Tuesday that a Trump outburst is a constant risk. But Thune reiterated that the things Trump is calling for — gutting the filibuster and passing the SAVE America Act — don’t have nearly enough support to pass. That’s not something Thune can wave a magic wand to change. And Trump hasn’t been able to convince senators to get rid of the filibuster either.
When asked Tuesday if he’s worried that continuing to dismiss Trump’s crusades could cause the president to more directly criticize him or even call for him to be ousted as Senate GOP leader, Thune responded with a laugh: “That could happen.”
News: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and committee ranking members are pressuring Republicans to fill Democratic positions on key bipartisan commissions and boards and reinstate fired officials. Democrats argue in a new letter to Trump and Thune that the firings and unfilled posts raise alarms about how seriously the GOP is taking the Senate’s advice and consent power over nominations.
Democrats have tried to use their leverage to force the Trump administration to fill some of these roles, including open seats on the SEC and CFTC.
— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Laura Weiss
ICYMI: We held a conversation yesterday with Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) on healthcare and drug development. Scott, a former healthcare executive, said Congress should stop picking “winners and losers” in the industry, and consumers should be able to make their own decisions on drugs they are prescribed. Read more about it here. You can also watch the full video here.
PRESENTED BY COALITION TO STRENGTHEN AMERICA’S HEALTHCARE
Your care shouldn’t be put on hold
When big corporate insurers delay approvals or require endless paperwork, patients are left waiting for care they need now.
Addressing harmful corporate insurer practices can help ensure timely access to treatment and protect 24/7 patient care.
DEFENSE
Trump’s $1.5 trillion Pentagon dream unravels
President Donald Trump wanted $1.5 trillion in military spending. But with the way things are going, he’ll be lucky to get half of that.
The Trump administration took a big swing when it sought to leverage a party-line spending process again to boost the Pentagon’s topline. But the reliance always came with a risk: that military spending would be dramatically slashed if Hill Republicans couldn’t deliver on Trump’s marching orders.
With defense spending in shambles, prospects are growing more and more likely for a continuing resolution that would lock in base DOD funding levels at $890 billion — an outcome Republicans are anxious to avoid.
“[Lawmakers] better think pretty long and hard, because they’re going to see real ramifications in their state, if we don’t do something beyond a CR at $890 [billion] that they had last year,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), a senior appropriator, said.
A risky gambit. House and Senate Republicans have warned for months that they didn’t like the idea of sticking $350 billion in important priorities, including funding for Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense shield, into the uncertain reconciliation process.
Now, they’re saying they have no idea how the Pentagon would reallocate program funds if that massive chunk of reconciliation money doesn’t materialize.
“They’ll have to let you know what their contingency plan is,” said Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.), a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee. “It better be a robust contingency plan.”
Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) stated openly Tuesday what many have long assumed privately: a third reconciliation package is unlikely to materialize this Congress. McConnell has warned for more than a year about the perils of using reconciliation to fund a major portion of Pentagon funding.
But many Republicans won’t throw in the towel yet.
“I just disagree with them,” said House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) of McConnell and Collins.
The total budget. Pentagon officials continue to cite the need for the full $1.5 trillion. Air Force Secretary Troy Meink said at a Senate hearing Tuesday that “it’s vital that we get the full” request.
But there’s no indication the Defense Department has truly begun grappling with what will happen if it doesn’t receive that money.
“This is where, quite honestly, we need better help from the administration,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told reporters Tuesday.
House Republicans wouldn’t write off a third reconciliation package yet, but conceded it won’t be easy to deliver. They also said time is short for an Iran war supplemental, which House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) previously said the Pentagon would need by August.
“I wish I knew,” said Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), chair of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, on the timing of an Iran supplemental.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told leading Hill defense hawks Tuesday that DOD would be seeking supplemental funds for U.S. operations in Iran and Venezuela to “fill the hole” created by those campaigns, Rogers said. Hegseth had a meeting at the White House on Tuesday on the topic, per Rogers.
On the Hill, the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee is poised to mark up its FY2027 spending plan during a closed-door session on Thursday. But the Senate appropriations process has stalled out as both sides remain miles apart.
— Anthony Adragna and Briana Reilly
THE HOUSE
House members are stumbling statewide
It’s a tried-and-tested strategy: Spend a couple of terms in the House, build up political support and then run for statewide office. But this election cycle has been rough for House lawmakers seeking promotions.
On Tuesday, Reps. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) both failed to advance to the South Carolina gubernatorial primary runoff.
Last week, Reps. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) and Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) lost their GOP primaries for governor.
In Texas, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) lost his attorney general primary in a runoff.
Reps. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) and Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) both didn’t make it to the runoff in their respective Senate bids.
On the Democratic side, Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) both lost their Senate campaigns. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) failed in her Senate bid, too.
Why are House lawmakers flailing and flopping in their statewide bids? Some speculate it’s the county’s anti-establishment sentiment.
“Voters are frustrated with both parties, and part of that is driven by the rising cost of living crisis that they’re in,” House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar said. “And they’re taking it out on whoever they can take it out on.”
Plus, on the GOP side, it’s often – but not always – who President Donald Trump supports that wins. We’ve seen this frequently throughout the cycle.
We’ll note that not all House members have faltered in their statewide races.
In Georgia, Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) is the favorite to win the GOP Senate runoff. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is the party’s Senate nominee in Iowa, while Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) is the GOP Senate candidate in Kentucky.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) is the GOP gubernatorial favorite in Florida. Reps. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and Barry Moore (R-Ala.) advanced to Senate runoffs in their respective states. Reps. Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.) and Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) are favored to be the GOP nominees for the Senate in their states.
For Democrats, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) is his party’s presumptive nominee for Senate.
What’s next. There are a number of House candidates who could be heading for the exits in statewide bids. Rep. John Rose (R-Tenn.) has trailed Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) in gubernatorial primary polls. In Minnesota’s Senate race, Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is locked in a competitive primary with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) is the favorite to beat Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) in the Arizona GOP gubernatorial primary.
Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) is also mounting a challenge to Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.).
In other primary results. In Maine, Democrat Graham Platner easily won the Senate nomination with 72% of the vote.
The Democratic primary for Maine’s 2nd District was too close to call, especially given the state’s ranked choice voting system. But state Sen. Joe Baldacci had a narrow lead over Jordan Wood and Matt Dunlap as of early Wednesday morning.
Pamela Evette and Alan Wilson advanced to the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary runoff. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) advanced to the general election and will face Democrat Annie Andrews.
Composer Marty O’Donnell won the GOP nomination to take on Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.).
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY COALITION TO STRENGTHEN AMERICA’S HEALTHCARE
Vault: Crypto ethics talks wobble over state enforcement
Senate Republicans floated a weaker set of crypto ethics guardrails during a bipartisan meeting Tuesday, according to three sources familiar with the exchange. The move could be a setback for crypto talks at a critical stretch.
In May, just before a bipartisan Senate Banking Committee crypto markup, Republicans and the White House offered Democrats an ethics enforcement mechanism that would allow state attorneys general to sue the Justice Department for failing to enforce federal crypto ethics requirements.
But on Tuesday, GOP negotiators discussed removing the state enforcement provision, citing concerns from other Republicans worried about being exposed to prosecution by state AGs. Republicans floated impeachment as another backup option. Democrats believe the change would neuter the guardrails.
We broke the news on our text platform Tuesday night.
Leaving the meeting on Tuesday, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) suggested he was unhappy with the state of talks.
We asked Gallego if the White House was operating in good faith. “I mean, they’re operating. I can’t tell if they’re operating in good faith or bad faith,” the Arizona Democrat replied.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) warned reporters about the risks of language empowering state AGs. “I’m pointing out to these guys, like the shoe will be on the other foot someday,” Moreno said. “Think about that scenario when there’s a Democrat president or Democrat majority. You don’t think they’d go after Adam Schiff every day of the week?”
— Brendan Pedersen
AND THERE’S MORE
AI. The House Homeland Security Committee held a closed-door roundtable with representatives from OpenAI, Scale AI, Palo Alto Networks and Peraton on Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the meeting.
The AI and cybersecurity companies briefed lawmakers on frontier AI development, cybersecurity operations and national security missions. The briefing follows a live demonstration last month by Anthropic of its powerful Mythos model for members of the panel. The committee’s chair, Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), has focused the panel’s activities on the cybersecurity implications of new AI models.
Ad news: House Majority Forward is rolling out a $1.6 million ad buy targeting vulnerable Iowa Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. The ads accuse the GOP incumbents of not doing enough to curb rising gas prices, grocery bills and electric costs.
Endorsement watch: Blue Dog PAC is endorsing Democrat Bale Dalton in the race to unseat Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.).
– Diego Areas Munhoz and Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY COALITION TO STRENGTHEN AMERICA’S HEALTHCARE
Delays from insurers can cost patients
Prior authorizations and administrative hurdles can slow down critical care, forcing patients to wait while their health hangs in the balance.
Reforming corporate insurer practices can help reduce delays and keep care moving when it matters most.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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