Why Nuclear Testing Stopped and What Trump’s Order to Resume Could Mean
Ellen Thomas
Why Nuclear Testing Stopped and What Trump’s Order to Resume Could Mean
In a stunning decision, U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the immediate resumption of nuclear weapons testing after a gap of 33 years an announcement made just minutes before his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
In a stunning decision, U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the immediate resumption of nuclear weapons testing after a gap of 33 years an announcement made just minutes before his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The move marks a dramatic reversal of decades of global restraint and threatens to upend one of the most important norms of the post–Cold War era: the moratorium on live nuclear detonations. The decision has not only reignited old fears of a nuclear arms race but also cast doubt on Washington’s commitment to international arms control treaties and global stability.
The order comes at a time of growing strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China, each of which is modernizing its nuclear forces. Trump’s directive may be intended to project power and send a message to Beijing and Moscow, but it also risks unraveling the fragile web of agreements that has kept nuclear testing in check for more than a generation.
The Nuclear Age: From Alamogordo to the Cold War
The nuclear age began in July 1945, when the United States conducted the world’s first atomic test the “Trinity Test” at Alamogordo, New Mexico. Just weeks later, atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ending World War II but inaugurating a new era of existential danger. The Soviet Union’s first test in August 1949 shattered America’s monopoly on nuclear weapons and ignited an arms race that defined the Cold War.
Between 1945 and the signing of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, more than 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted worldwide over half of them by the United States and the Soviet Union. France carried out 210 tests, while Britain and China each conducted 45. After the CTBT was opened for signature, only a few nations India, Pakistan, and North Korea continued testing. The United States last tested in 1992, Russia in 1990, and China and France in 1996.
Why Nuclear Testing Stopped
The decision to halt nuclear testing stemmed from mounting concern over its devastating health, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Atmospheric and underground tests contaminated vast areas, from the Pacific Islands to Kazakhstan and the Arctic, leaving generations of people exposed to radiation. Public outcry and scientific evidence about the dangers of fallout built momentum for restraint.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), adopted in 1996, aimed to end all nuclear explosions everywhere and for everyone. It became a cornerstone of the global non-proliferation architecture. Russia ratified the treaty in 2000, but the United States though it signed it in 1996 never ratified it, leaving the treaty in legal limbo. In 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin withdrew Russia’s ratification, citing U.S. noncompliance, further weakening the already fragile framework. Despite these setbacks, the CTBT remains a powerful symbol of international consensus against nuclear testing.
Why Resume Testing Now?
Resuming nuclear testing serves both technical and political purposes. From a military perspective, testing allows scientists to verify the reliability of aging warheads and to gather empirical data for the design of new ones. Although computer simulations and subcritical tests have long been used to maintain the U.S. arsenal without live detonations, physical testing yields data that no model can perfectly replicate.
Politically, Trump’s order can be interpreted as a show of force a signal to adversaries that Washington is willing to break long-standing taboos to maintain strategic dominance. It is also a form of diplomatic signaling aimed at reasserting U.S. leverage in the evolving global balance of power. However, such a move risks destabilizing decades of restraint. Putin has already warned that Russia would respond in kind if the United States resumed testing, raising the specter of a renewed global nuclear arms race.
Who Has Nuclear Weapons Today?
There are currently nine nuclear-armed states, collectively possessing about 12,000 warheads a steep decline from the Cold War peak of over 70,000 in the 1980s. The United States and Russia still account for roughly 90% of the world’s total. According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia holds around 5,459 warheads, while the United States has approximately 5,177. China follows with about 600, while France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea hold smaller but still significant arsenals.
Although the overall number of warheads has declined, all three major powers the United States, Russia, and China are now engaged in expensive modernization programs. These include the development of new intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines, and hypersonic delivery systems, suggesting that the world is entering a new phase of nuclear competition even without renewed testing.
Why It Matters
Trump’s order threatens to dismantle one of the last remaining pillars of global arms control. Resuming tests could unravel the CTBT, embolden other nuclear powers to follow suit, and encourage emerging states to pursue their own weapons programs. Beyond the strategic implications, there are profound environmental and humanitarian concerns. Past nuclear tests caused widespread contamination and long-term health crises; a return to testing could reopen those wounds and reintroduce radioactive risks to both ecosystems and communities.
The move also risks alienating U.S. allies in Europe and Asia, many of whom remain committed to disarmament and non-proliferation. It could complicate Washington’s diplomatic efforts to contain nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea, while undermining its credibility as a responsible global leader. More broadly, it symbolizes a retreat from restraint a shift toward a more volatile and competitive international order where nuclear power, not diplomacy, defines strength.
Implications
The implications of this decision are far-reaching. Strategically, it may accelerate a new arms race among the great powers, with each side seeking to demonstrate superiority through more advanced and more numerous weapons. Diplomatically, it isolates Washington from its allies and erodes the moral authority it once wielded in urging others to abandon nuclear ambitions. Environmentally, the resumption of tests threatens to reignite the ecological devastation caused by Cold War detonations, particularly in regions that have still not recovered from past contamination.
If other nations follow suit, the world could quickly return to an era of open nuclear brinkmanship. The psychological impact the normalization of nuclear testing could be just as destabilizing as the physical threat itself.
Analysis
Trump’s decision to resume nuclear testing is a dangerous gamble that undermines decades of progress toward global stability. While proponents argue it will strengthen U.S. deterrence and ensure the reliability of its arsenal, the timing and tone of the announcement suggest a political rather than a strategic motive. It appears designed to project power rather than to meet any immediate security need.
Such a move risks triggering a domino effect, where Russia, China, and even smaller nuclear states feel compelled to resume their own tests. The result could be a new nuclear arms race in an already fragile world order. Moreover, it erodes America’s credibility in championing non-proliferation efforts and weakens the moral foundation upon which the U.S. built its global influence during the post–Cold War period.
Resuming nuclear testing, therefore, is not merely a technical decision it is a symbolic rupture with a decades-long global consensus that some weapons are too destructive to ever be normalized. In reigniting the nuclear age, the United States risks setting off not just explosions underground, but geopolitical tremors that could reverberate for generations.
With information from Reuters.
