Disarmament Digest - 9 September 2021

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Sep 13, 2021, 9:57:02 PM9/13/21

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DISARMAMENT DIGEST

Thursday 9 September 2021

NEWS

UN: General Assembly President calls for halt to nuclear tests

The President of the UN General Assembly, Volkan Bozkir, on Wednesday called for an end to nuclear tests, as ambassadors gathered to commemorate the International Day against Nuclear Tests, observed annually on 29 August. Despite recent developments in advancing nuclear disarmament, more remains to be done, said Mr. Bozkir, urging countries which have yet to sign or ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) to do so without delay. “More than 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted since the advent of nuclear weapons. While the rate of testing has declined, they have not stopped,” he said. The International Day against Nuclear Tests commemorates the 29 August 1991 closure of the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan, where more than 450 nuclear devices were exploded over four decades during the Soviet era. The closure signalled “the end of the era of unrestrained nuclear testing”, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in his message to the event, which was delivered by UN High Representative for Disarmament, Izumi Nakamitsu. The Secretary-General also called for the CTBT to be ratified, and for renewed global commitment to end nuclear tests. (UN News)

UN: New UN test ban chief says goal is to bring pact into force

The new head of the U.N. nuclear test ban treaty organization said Wednesday his goal is to have the treaty enter into force, which would require ratification by eight countries -- the U.S., China, Iran, Israel, Egypt, India, Pakistan and North Korea. “I remain optimistic, but I’m also realistic,” Robert Floyd said at a news conference. “I don’t underestimate the challenge.” The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, known as the CTBT, has 196 member states — 185 that have signed the treaty and 170 that have ratified it. But the treaty has not entered into force because it needs ratification by the eight non-ratifying nations that had nuclear power reactors or research reactors when the U.N. General Assembly adopted the treaty in 1996. Floyd said he wants to sit down with each of the eight countries to discuss why five of them signed the treaty and understand their “current circumstances” regarding the treaty. He said he would like to ask them, “What pathway do you see going forward so they could ratify?” (AP)

Nuclear: Iran warns West of IAEA move as U.S says time running out to save nuclear deal

Iran's president on Wednesday warned Western states against rebuking Tehran at the U.N. atomic watchdog after its latest reports criticised his country, while the top U.S. diplomat said time was running out to revive a nuclear deal with world powers. "In the event of a counterproductive approach at the IAEA, it would not make sense to expect Iran to react constructively. Counterproductive measures are naturally disruptive to the negotiation path also," President Ebrahim Raisi said in a phone call with European Council President Charles Michel, according to Iranian state media. (Reuters)

Nuclear: US, Germany press for Iran to return soon to nuclear talks

The U.S. and Germany on Wednesday stepped up pressure on Iran to return soon to talks on its nuclear program, with Germany’s foreign minister saying that a delay of two or three months floated by Tehran is too long. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that that isn’t good enough. He said he told Amirabdollahian last week that “two or three months is a time frame that is much too long for us” and called for a quicker return. Asked whether the delay suggested by Iran is too long for a return to the accord as it stands to be possible, Blinken said: “I’m not going to put a date on it, but we are getting closer to the point at which a strict return to the compliance with the (nuclear deal) does not reproduce the benefits that that agreement achieved.” “We’ve been very clear that the ability to rejoin the (deal), return to mutual compliance, is not indefinite,” he added. (AP)

Nuclear: Iran Reaches Out To Neighbors As U.S. Warns Over Nuclear Talks

The new government in Tehran is reaching out to its Gulf neighbors, as talks over the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. looks increasingly shaky. In the past 24 hours, recently-appointed foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has held talks with at least two of his counterparts in the region, with speculation that other meetings will follow. Indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal – which then-president Donald Trump reneged on in May 2018 – have stalled in recent weeks, with Blinken warning on August 8 that time was running out. However, Gulf interlocutors may yet be able to help find a way forward. (Forbes)

Nuclear: EU's top diplomat vows support for dismantling N. Korea's nuclear program

The foreign policy chief of the European Union (EU) pledged support Thursday for building peace on the Korean Peninsula, stressing the importance of implementing sanctions on North Korea in ending its nuclear program. Josep Borrell, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, made the remarks in a congratulatory message to an opening ceremony for an annual international security forum hosted by the defense ministry in Seoul. (Yonhap News)

Nuclear: FMs of CA adopt joint statement on nuclear security

Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the States Parties to the Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia (CANWFZ) adopted the joint statement on the occasion of the 15th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on the CANWFZ, the Kazakh MFA’s official website reads. (Kazinform)

Chemical Weapons: Projectiles containing mustard agent destroyed

Officials say they’ve reached a milestone at a Kentucky chemical weapons depot with the destruction of all projectiles containing mustard agent. The last projectiles containing mustard agent were destroyed Saturday at the Blue Grass Chemical Agent-Destruction Pilot Plant in Madison County, the facility said in a statement this week. The U.S. is destroying its chemical weapons stockpile under an international treaty. Mustard and nerve agent are being destroyed at the Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky while mustard agent is being destroyed at a Colorado facility. (AP)

Biological Weapons: China proposes global code of conduct on biosecurity, amid coronavirus ‘lab leak’ row with US

China has introduced an initiative to prohibit the misuse of biotechnology, as the country seeks to play a bigger role in global biosecurity governance amid sustained tensions with the US on the issue – especially over the origins of Covid-19. The Tianjin Biosecurity Guidelines for Codes of Conduct for Scientists was introduced by a senior Chinese diplomat at a symposium under the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) in Geneva last Thursday. Named after north China’s Tianjin municipality, the initiative is the product of a multilateral effort led by China and Pakistan. It was finalised in July after dozens of rounds of discussions involving scientists from more than 20 countries, including those at Tianjin University, Johns Hopkins University in the US and the Secretariat of the InterAcademy Partnership. (South China Morning Post)

Missiles: Saudi prince says the U.S. should not withdraw Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia wants the U.S. to show that Washington is committed to the kingdom, and that means leaving American defense equipment in Saudi Arabia, Prince Turki Al-Faisal told CNBC. He was responding to a question on what the Middle East needs from the U.S. in the wake of the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. "I think we need to be reassured about American commitment. That looks like, for example, not withdrawing Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia at a time when Saudi Arabia is the victim of missile attacks and drone attacks — not just from Yemen, but from Iran," the prince, Saudi Arabia's former intelligence chief, told CNBC's Hadley Gamble last month. (CNBC)

Conventional Arms: Ethiopia’s Tigray forces kill some 120 civilians

Local officials in Ethiopia alleged Wednesday that Tigray forces have killed more than 120 civilians in recent days following battlefield losses, in what would be one of the deadliest massacres of the East African nation’s 10-month war. Tigray forces denied killing civilians. Sewunet Wubalem, administrator for the Dabat district in Ethiopia’s northern Amhara region, told The Associated Press that 123 bodies had been recovered and more were expected to be found. Local residents blamed the Tigray forces for looting, shelling and killing civilians, Sewunet said. “Children, mothers and even religious elders were also targeted,” he said. The death toll could be as high as 200, said Bekele Yitbarek, head of the North Gondar Health Bureau. (AP)
See also: Over 120 killed in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, officials say (Aljazeera)

Conventional Arms: Several civilians killed in Syrian government attacks in Idlib

Several civilians have been killed in a series attacks conducted by the government and its allies in rebel-held northwestern Syria, the Syrian Civil Defence has said. At least five people were killed and several others wounded in the shelling across Idlib province on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to the civil defence, a volunteer search-and-rescue group operating in rebel-held areas of Syria. Fatima al-Khatib was killed in artillery shelling that destroyed a building containing a medical centre in Marayan, in the Jabal al-Zawiya area in southern Idlib on Wednesday. Al-Khatib lived in a residential part of the building with her husband Nizar al-Khatib, who serves as the director of the medical centre. It was the only medical centre for thousands of civilians in the area. (Aljazeera)

See also: Turkey 'concerned' over Assad regime attacks on Syria's Daraa (Daily Sabah)

Military Affairs: North Korea Forgoes the Usual Muscle-Flexing in a Military Parade

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, attended a national predawn military parade on Thursday, but skipped the opportunity to raise tensions with the United States through a fiery speech or the display of long-range ballistic missiles. The parade included military reservists, police officers, and factory and health workers, and was a departure from the nighttime military parades held last October and in January. Those parades featured what appeared to be newly developed intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, indicating that the North was ramping up its weapons programs while nuclear disarmament negotiations with Washington remain stalled. At one of the earlier parades, Mr. Kim also delivered a speech vowing to boost his country’s nuclear arsenal. When recent commercial satellite imagery revealed preparations for the military parade on Thursday in Pyongyang, marking the government’s 73rd anniversary, outside officials waited to see what new message Mr. Kim might deliver or what new weapons he might debut. But the parade appeared to be a much more modest affair, as Mr. Kim — with a tan Western-style suit draped over his visibly thinner frame — used the event to boost the country’s morale. (New York Times)

See also: N. Korea, slimmed down Kim Jong Un, enjoy toned-down parade (Washington Post)

See also: NK holds parade without missiles amid nuclear standoff (The Korea Herald)

See also: North Korea stages nighttime military parade but machines take priority over missiles (South China Morning Post)

See also: North Korea says it held late-night military parade (Aljazeera)

Military Affairs: US Navy launches Mideast drone task force amid Iran tensions

The U.S. Navy's Mideast-based 5th Fleet said Wednesday it will launch a new task force that incorporates airborne, sailing and underwater drones after years of maritime attacks linked to ongoing tensions with Iran. Navy officials declined to identify which systems they would introduce from their headquarters on the island nation of Bahrain in the Persian Gulf. However, they promised the coming months would see the drones stretch their capabilities across a region of chokepoints crucial to both global energy supplies and worldwide shipping. While President Joe Biden has said he's willing to re-enter the deal, negotiations in Vienna have stalled as Iran now has a new hard-line president. That leaves open the possibility of further attacks by Iran — as well as by Israel, which has been suspected in incidents targeting Iranian shipping and its nuclear program. (AP)

Military Affairs: Dozens of Westerners board commercial flight from Kabul

Dozens of foreigners, including Americans, boarded a commercial flight at Kabul airport on Thursday in the first large-scale evacuation since U.S and NATO forces withdrew from Afghanistan at the end of last month. The departure of some 200 Westerners on a Qatar Airways flight to Doha marked a significant breakthrough in the bumpy coordination between the U.S. and Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers. The Taliban have promised to allow foreigners and Afghans with valid travel documents to leave, but a days-long standoff over charter planes at another airport had cast some doubt on Taliban assurances. (AP)

Military Affairs: Russia and Belarus formally open huge war games, worrying NATO

Russia and Belarus formally opened vast joint military drills on Thursday, a week-long exercise across the territory of both countries and in the Baltic Sea that has alarmed some NATO countries. Top military leaders from the two countries attended the opening ceremony of the war games, called "Zapad-2021", in western Russia where flags were raised and speeches given. The active part of the exercise, which comes at a time of heightened tensions between the West and Belarus due to a crackdown on the opposition there, begins on Friday and will run until Sept. 16. (Reuters)

Relevant Diplomacy: Austria takes over Chairpersonship of OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation

“Trust has to be earned over and over again. Trust is the ‘sine qua non’ for stability and sustainable security in the OSCE region. We therefore need dialogue, co-operation and transparency,” said Peter Launsky-Tieffenthal, Secretary General for Foreign Affairs of Austria, as he opened the Austrian Chairpersonship of the OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation (FSC) today in Vienna. In efforts to foster trust and transparency, the Austrian FSC Chair’s security dialogues will focus on the core areas of the FSC mandate while weaving in thematic debates, said Launsky-Tieffenthal, recalling the Swedish OSCE Chairpersonship’s motto of ‘Back to basics’. The programme will include topics such as the Framework for Arms Control, the Women, Peace, and Security Agenda, military doctrines, small arms and light weapons, conventional ammunition. (OSCE)

Related Diplomacy: CIA chief visits Israel amid Iran tensions

US Central Intelligence Agency chief William Burns was due in Israel Tuesday for talks on common foe Iran, as rising tensions overshadow talks on restoring a landmark nuclear deal. A spokesman for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett gave no details of the agenda for the CIA chief's talks in Israel. But the Walla News website said he would discuss Iran's nuclear programme and its activities in the region with both Bennett and his Israeli counterpart David Barnea. Walla News said Burns would also travel to Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, for talks with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas and intelligence chief Majed Faraj. (France24)

Relevant Diplomacy: China’s Xi Jinping vows to take ‘valuable friendship’ with North Korea to new heights

Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to further develop ties with North Korea in a message congratulating top leader Kim Jong-un on the 73rd anniversary of the country’s foundation.

As a friend, China was “sincerely glad” to see that North Korea’s socialist causes had enjoyed “vigorous development”, Xi said in his message to mark North Korea’s 73rd National Day on Thursday. (South China Morning Post)

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Biden should guide missile defense his own way

The Biden administration has begun a review of US missile defense policy. The review is part of a broader effort to align defense strategy and posture with the president’s commitment to lead through diplomacy, repair alliances, and rebuild the American economy. In 2019, Trump declared the “beginning of a new era” in America’s missile defense program. He envisioned an “unrivaled and unmatched” missile defense system with a “simple goal” to defend against “every type of missile attack against any American target.” This decision reversed longstanding US policy to build defenses against emerging nuclear missile threats from North Korea and Iran but not against established nuclear powers. While Trump’s ambitions did not produce immediate changes to US posture and capabilities, he made one of the biggest—and quietest—changes to US declaratory policy in the last two decades. This quiet change is facing stormy waters. Moscow and Beijing have long claimed US global missile defense plans, including a NATO system in Europe and defenses in East Asia, will eventually target Russia and China, and thus threaten strategic stability. This year, over 60 American national security experts agreed: America’s missile defense system has “accelerated an arms race with Russia and China, leading both adversaries to expand their offensive nuclear weapons programs to counter US missile defenses.” In an open letter, they urged President Joe Biden to “walk us back from the brink now.” Biden now faces a choice on missile defense policy: Does he embrace Trump’s “simple goal” to defend against “every type of missile attack against any American target”? Or does he revert to the policies of the Obama and George W. Bush administrations to build defenses only against limited nuclear strikes from North Korea and Iran and rely on deterrence and diplomacy against major nuclear powers like Russia and China? The answer lies not in partisan debates but in new strategic thinking on the roles of missile defense in a changed security environment. (Ivanka Barzashka for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

Western Powers Wary of Iran’s Nuclear Commitment

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday urged Iran to resume negotiations with world powers over a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement, warning the new government in Tehran that U.S. patience was already wearing thin. Last week, Iran’s new Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said another round of talks in Vienna would not come quickly and that “the other party understands that it takes two to three months for the new administration to establish and do planning for any sort of decision.”That time frame was scoffed at by German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, who described it as “much too long.” Speaking alongside Maas during a visit to Germany on Wednesday, Blinken said the United States has been “very clear that the ability to rejoin the [deal], return to mutual compliance, is not indefinite.” In fact, the two-to-three-month gap suggested by Amirabdollahian fits the timeline established by the Biden administration, which officially began indirect talks with Iran in April—roughly three months after taking office. However, the comments from Maas and Blinken reflect growing anxieties that Iran’s new President Ebrahim Raisi is not interested in following in the footsteps of his predecessor Hassan Rouhani and accepting restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and greater economic freedoms. Raisi said on Saturday that his government was indeed open to “goal-oriented negotiations,” but not in the face of Western “pressure.” (Colm Quinn for Foreign Policy)

Korean peace treaty advocates are chasing an absurd, destructive dream

The basis for the claim that the Korean war remains unfinished is that the armistice signed by generals from the US, China and North Korea – but not South Korea – never morphed into a formal peace treaty as originally intended. The fact that South Korea’s first president, Syngman Rhee, refused to join the negotiations – wanting nothing to do with a deal that would bring about a permanent division of the Korean peninsula – adds to the argument that now is the time for the US and South Korea to come to terms on a treaty with the North. Demands for negotiations on a treaty are enshrined in a bill that progressive members of the US Congress have introduced. It would require the US secretary of state to report within six months on efforts for talks with the North. It includes two other crucial provisions – for setting up liaison offices with North Korea and authorising US citizens to visit the North. This has been forbidden since the death in 2017 of Otto Warmbier, the student who was convicted, jailed and returned in a comatose state to the US, where he died several days later. The bill’s sponsors make no mention of the case of Warmbier, who was jailed for 15 months for pilfering a sign from his Pyongyang hotel the night before he was to go home after a brief visit. More importantly, the bill says nothing about the biggest threat to peace on the peninsula – North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes. The assumption of those campaigning for a treaty is that all sides must first agree to ending the Korean war. That is absurd, of course. North Korea would demand as conditions for any treaty that the US and United Nations withdraw sanctions against it and that the US closes bases in the South, including Camp Humphreys south of Seoul, where most of the 28,500 US troops are concentrated. (Donald Kirk for South China Morning Post)

Welcome to the Club: South Korea Now has a Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile

South Korea has reportedly test-fired a new, domestically designed and built submarine-launched ballistic missile. Yonhap, a South Korean news agency, reported that the Agency for Defense Development, a defense technology research and development group, carried out “underwater ejection tests” from a Dosan Ahn Chang-ho submarine following successful underwater launches from a barge earlier last month. Although the Korean Defense Ministry in Seoul would not officially confirm South Korea’s recent SLBM development, Yonhap did quote a South Korean ministry statement that said the South Korean “military secures advanced high-powered military assets to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula by building strong military capabilities, and plans to continue to develop them.” The missile in question is said to be a variant of South Korea’s Hyunmoo-2B, a solid-fueled, ballistic missile with a range of three hundred to five hundred kilometers depending on payload configuration. The new SLBM is purportedly called Hyunmoo 4-4. Mating a domestically built and designed submarine-launched ballistic missile with a brand new submarine also built at home is a significant achievement for South Korea. The Republic of Korea Navy can now enjoy independence from foreign submarine and missile spare part sourcing and servicing. The fact that both systems have been built at home ensures smoother interoperability than could otherwise be achieved. Put together, South Korea’s ability to keep North Korea at bay is set to expand. (Caleb Larson for the National Interest)

Myanmar’s Armed Forces: The Ukraine Connection

Since the military coup that overthrew Myanmar’s elected civilian government in February, much press attention has been given to Russia’s substantial arms sales to the country’s armed forces, also known as the Tatmadaw. Certainly, the Russian government has done little to conceal its interest in profiting off the country’s tumults. But as the advocacy group Justice for Myanmar (JFM) shows in a new report, Russia’s western neighbor Ukraine has also played a less heralded role in keeping Myanmar’s military supplied with arms and other crucial components. The JFM report, which is based on Ukrainian export records and other leaked documents from the Myanmar government, claims that Ukrainian firms, some state-owned, have sent numerous shipments of aircraft, ship, and tank parts to Myanmar since 2015. Indeed, some have done so since this year’s coup, despite Kiev voting in favor of a U.N. General Assembly resolution calling for a halt to the flow of arms to Myanmar. Among the most recent deals were two shipments from Motor Sich, a major Ukrainian manufacturer of engines for aircraft and missiles. The first of these, which took place in February, contained mechanical parts that were sent to the Yangon based private air force supplier Sky Aviator. The second – a shipment of turbojet engine parts – went to the army’s directorate of procurement on May 31, at the same time, the report notes, as the Myanmar air force “increased indiscriminate airstrikes in ethnic areas.” (Sebastian Strangio for the Diplomat)

CCW Group of Governmental Experts August 2021 meeting analysis

The CCW Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) meeting, from 3-13th August 2021 served to further confirm that the international conversation on autonomous weapons has been transformed in 2021. Whilst substantial disagreements still exist, the basic conceptual approach to the subject matter and the shape of the necessary policy response are now clear. This has not been the case in previous years when the conversation was characterised by contradictory orientations to basic ideas and people talking past each other. This stabilisation of the policy conversation – around a combination of prohibitions and regulations across a broad concept of autonomous weapons – is a major political achievement, and it is a necessary step for the successful development of a legal instrument. Half-way through this August GGE, Belgium’s Ambassador Pecsteen circulated a ‘Chair’s paper’ on ‘Draft elements of possible consensus recommendations…’. This provided a basis for the second week’s discussion and it was a very positive move, despite weaknesses in the paper itself. The Chair’s text fell significantly short of what is needed in reality: it did not clearly call for a legal response, it failed to acknowledge the need to prohibit systems targeting people, and it adopted a rejection of ‘fully autonomous weapons’ that were so narrowly defined as to be implausible. But the paper clearly reinforced the structure of prohibitions and regulations as central to the debate – and it served to frame the subsequent conversation constructively around that. This is creating an interesting political dynamic across the community of states. (Richard Moyes for Article 36)

PUBLICATIONS

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does Pakistan have in 2021?

Pakistan continues to expand its nuclear arsenal with more warheads, more delivery systems, and a growing fissile materials production industry. Analysis of a large number of commercial satellite images of Pakistani army garrisons and air force bases shows what appear to be launchers and facilities that might be related to the nuclear forces. We estimate that Pakistan now has a nuclear weapons stockpile of approximately 165 warheads (See Table 1). The US Defense Intelligence Agency projected in 1999 that Pakistan would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020 (US Defense Intelligence Agency 1999, 38), but several new weapon systems have been fielded and developed since then, which leads us to the higher estimate. We estimate that the country’s stockpile could more realistically grow to around 200 warheads by 2025, if the current trend continues. But unless India significantly expands its arsenal or further builds up its conventional forces, it seems reasonable to expect that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal will not continue to grow indefinitely but might begin to level off as its current weapons programs are completed. (Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

MULTIMEDIA

Boiling Fish at Yongbyon (Podcast)

Looks like Yongbyon is running a little hot. The IAEA has announced that it believes the DPRK is conducting a plutonium reprocessing campaign at Yongbyon. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why the DPRK would want to do this. What could the mystery be? Why would the DPRK reprocess plutonium? (Arms Control Wonk)

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The Disarmament Digest is not an official publication of the United Nations. It is a daily collection of publicly available news articles and opinion pieces compiled by the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs. The inclusion of a particular item does not imply endorsement of the views expressed, the author, publisher or website hosting the article, or that the material is accurate or without bias.

Furthermore, no editorial comment is implied by the omission of a news article or opinion piece. Titles are sometimes changed and edits to the summary are sometimes made to make the extract/summary more useful. Please do send us material for potential inclusion.

The above compilation is neither exhaustive nor fully inclusive. Apologies if the link to the original news item no longer connects or takes you to a different piece. We have no control over how long external material remains on external websites. The recipients of the Disarmament Digest have asked to be added to an e-mail list, requesting this compilation to be sent to their inboxes on days when the Digest is published.

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