On Feb. 5, the last remaining
treaty limiting the two largest
nuclear arsenals—the 2010 New
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
(New START)—will expire. It
verifiably restricted each side
to no more than 1,550 deployed
warheads and no more than 700
deployed long-range missiles and
bombers, a thirty-percent
reduction below the limits set
by the previous bilateral arms
control agreement.
As Daryl Kimball warns in the
Focus editorial in the
January/February issue of Arms
Control Today, unless,
presidents Donald Trump and
Vladimir Putin agree to new
arrangements and negotiations to
maintain limits on U.S. and
Russian nuclear stockpiles,
"each side likely will begin
increasing the size of its
deployed nuclear arsenal for the
first time in more than 35 years
by uploading additional warheads
on existing long-range
missiles.”
"Increases in Russian and U.S.
strategic forces would further
destabilize the mutual balance
of nuclear terror; strain the
costly, behind-schedule U.S.
nuclear modernization program;
and push China to accelerate its
nuclear buildup,” he writes.
Seven U.S. presidents from Nixon
to Obama concluded major nuclear
arms control and
nonproliferation agreements.
Gerald Ford advanced
negotiations on the second
Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty
and Joe Biden extended New START
by five years. But, Kimball
notes, "After six years in the
White House, President Donald
Trump has failed to make any
progress despite talking often
about his desire for
‘denuclearization' with Russia
and China, complaining about the
high costs of nuclear weapons,
and noting the devastating
effects of nuclear conflict.”
On Sept. 22, Putin offered a modest
way forward, announcing that
“Russia is ready to continue to
adhere to the central
quantitative restrictions under
the [New] START Treaty for one
year after February 5, 2026,” if
the United States reciprocates.
When asked Oct. 5 about Putin’s
proposal, Trump said, “Sounds
like a good idea to me,” but the
White House has not yet formally
replied to the Kremlin offer.
"Trump can still help halt a
dangerous arms race that no one
can win,” Kimball advises. But
to do so, he will need "to turn
his vague denuclearization talk
into tangible arms control
action."
The full text of the editorial
“On Nuclear Disarmament: Acta
non Verba,” is available online.
The full archive of all Arms
Control Today “Focus” editorials
can be found here.
