The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: Acase of negative learning by doing
dave andrews
The paperreviewsthehistoryandtheeconomicsoftheFrenchPWRprogram,whichisarguablythe mostsuccessfulnuclear-scaleupexperienceinanindustrializedcountry.Keytothissuccesswasa unique institutionalframeworkthatallowedforcentralizeddecisionmaking,ahighdegreeof standardization,andregulatorystability,epitomizedbycomparativelyshortreactorconstructiontimes. Drawingonlargelyunknownpublicrecords,thepaperrevealsforthefirsttimebothabsoluteas well asyearlyandspecificreactorcostsandtheirevolutionovertime.Itsmostsignificantfindingisthat even thismostsuccessfulnuclearscale-upwascharacterizedbyasubstantialescalationofreal-term constructioncosts.Conversely,operatingcostshaveremainedremarkablyflat,despiteloweredload factors resultingfromtheneedforloadmodulationinasystemwherebase-loadnuclearpowerplants supply threequartersofelectricity. The Frenchnuclearcaseillustratestheperilsoftheassumptionofrobustlearningeffectsresultingin loweredcostsovertimeinthescale-upoflarge-scale,complexnewenergysupplytechnologies.The uncertaintiesinanticipatedlearningeffectsofnewtechnologiesmightbemuchlargerthatoften assumed,includingalsocasesof‘‘negativelearning’’inwhichspecificcosts increase rather than decrease withaccumulatedexperience.
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| Sent By: | david andrews | |||
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| 1. | The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing Original Research Article Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 9, September 2010, Pages 5174-5188 Arnulf Grubler |
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