Well..... to be contrarian.
I think the crude Marxist explanation of the Trump phenomenon or
movement or whatever you want to call it is deeply problematic. I
deeply doubt that Trump's or any Trump administration officials' view
of SoKo or NoKo is driven by real estate considerations.
Look. I have been to NoKo. One of the few who have. Four days, very
short, but I read a lot about the place and studied under one of the
Americans who best knows it for many years, Bruce Cumings.
I will say a couple of things:
1. The claim that we know nothing about NoKo is bullshit. No. We know
a lot about it. it is a poor backward lethargic sclerotic Stalinist
system imposed on a NE Asian peasant society about 65 years ago. It
has a deep hatred of the US because of not only the way that the US
thwarted NoKo's efforts to reunify the Korean Peninsula by force, but
also the hellish bombardment that we unleashed upon the country (which
may have included the use of chemical and biological weapons, though
the USG has always denied this... the evidence is fragmentary but
suggestive). As well as the threat to use nuclear weapons, made
repeatedly by the highest level US political and military leadership
of the day, from Truman on down.
Most Americans have forgotten all that long ago, if they ever even
knew it. The North Koreans remember it as if it happened yesterday.
2. The NoKo system actually worked fairly well until around 1970....
In fact there are CIA and other reports bemoaning the corruption and
ineptitude and the rest of SoKo, and contrasting it negatively with
NoKo's fairly positive achievements. That is not me saying this, it
was the CIA and the like. Then SoKo entered into its period of rapid
economic growth, and left NoKo in the dust.... The NoKo system proved
to be as sclerotic and incapable of adaptation as the one in other
Stalinist states. There has been about 40+ years of that at this
point.
3. I mentioned NE Asian peasant society. This is key. And it is not
just NE Asia. There are lots of poor peasant societies all over Asia
and Africa and Latin America. NoKo is no different. The vast majority
of the population is still in villages, scratching a living out from
the soil. Just like their ancestors did 100 or 1,000 or 2,000 years
ago. NoKo did fairly well in agriculture after 1953 primarily because
they had a great deal with the USSR that gave them cheap petrochemical
fertilizers. When that deal ended in the early 1990s, disaster ensued,
a massive famine. The regime was paralyzed, incapable of a
response.... At least 600,000 starved to death, perhaps far more, no
one really knows.
But does anyone seriously believe that NoKo is alone in this? When I
was boarding the plane back to Beijing in September 2008, after my
four days in Pyongyang, I got chatting with another guy on the tarmac.
He was a US agricultural expert who had just spent some time in rural
NoKo as part of an NGO effort. He said that actually NoKo's rural
problems were pretty typical of Asian rural poverty as a whole, that
actually places in Nepal and India and China were as bad or worse
based on his own experience.
4. The one thing the NoKo regime has, the one card it can play, is the
nuclear card. This is because there are uranium deposits in NoKo. No
need to go into this at length here other than to say that this is
NoKo's way of getting attention.... And it has worked, and it has tied
US diplomacy in the region up in knots for many decades now. How it
gets resolved, do not ask me. But I doubt NoKo will ever give up its
program at this point.... Why would they? It is the ultimate guarantee
against external regime change for the first thing. Perhaps a
compromise will be reached where NoKo is allowed 20 or so bombs as a
deterrent, who knows? But they are not going to piss away the only
thing that has gotten them to the bargaining table in the first place.
As I said to a friend of mine over dinner the other day, this whole
standoff is sort of like this. Imagine a town where there are two
families. One family is rich, has a huge arsenal of machine guns and
so on, has total control of the place. And another family is poor, and
feels afraid and isolated and the rest. So that poor family scrimps
and saves, and finally manages to buy one Uzi. So the rich family
says, "OK, let's negotiate. But first you have to give up your Uzi!"
The poor family is not going to give up its Uzi.
There is of course a bigger thing to say here. There were no US forces
on South Korean soil before around August 15, 1945. There were no US
forces on Japanese soil before that time either. One day, like it or
not, those US forces that have been there for those many decades, they
will leave. They will leave because they have overstayed their
welcome, or they will leave because a financial crisis makes it
impossible to keep them there, or they will leave for some other
reason. But anyone who thinks that this is going to continue
indefinitely is living in fantasy land. Not when the US has a $21
trillion national debt and a $600 billion annual trade deficit and a
long list of other problems at home.
My own preference? The US should go back to being a democratic
republic, and stop playing "Empire". And that would mean that it
should stop using the US military as the world's policeman and stop
using the US dollar as the world's currency, and refocus its efforts
on its own citizens, and on making itself a better example for the
rest of the world. that is entirely compatible with being a good world
citizen as well. But there is a dominant class of people in the US
now, the people that Christopher Lasch rightly excoriated in his late
collection of essays "The Revolt of the Elites", who want the empire
to continue, who like the cheap goods and the cheap labor and the
rest, and whose response when people talk about the trade deficits and
the national debt and the like is "Apres moi le deluge".
Well, that is not terribly responsible now, is it? To bury your head
in the sand in the face of a $21 trillion national debt, massive trade
deficits, declining infrastructure, immense unfunded liabilities, most
of which will never be paid..... Not responsible at all. But look for
an honest discussion of any of that in the so-called objective media
and you will be disappointed. now the trade issue is getting a lot of
attention, but as someone who has followed this for decades I cannot
help but notice that the figures for bilateral deficits are NEVER
mentioned, nor are the figures for annual US deficits, nor is anything
said about what makes these deficits possible in the short to medium
run and what the longer term costs are..... It is a taboo, it cannot
be mentioned. And it is not because people do not know what the costs
and consequences are, it is because there is that elite stratum that
is benefitting from the current disposition, and they do not want the
longer term costs of this folly to be discussed and debated.
Nope. Apres moi, le deluge.
But Trump is a fascist and a xenophobe and the like, because he says
the US should have balanced trade and so on. Sure.
Well, it will all come crashing down soon enough. The time to avert
such a crisis, that would have been 2009, when BHO could have done
something to reassert central government control over Wall Street and
defuse the debt and unfunded liabilities bombs... And instead he did
the opposite, he tacked on massive new debt and instituted tepid Wall
Street reforms, did not reduce the size of the US military and
security apparatus, and on and on. Just kicked the can down the road
in a dozen ways. And Trump is no better, he has no clue about the
severity of the current problems and apparently thinks that the US can
grow itself out of them with a 4% per annum growth rate. Sorry, no,
and the likely outcome will be inflation, increased interest rates and
a crippling recession that will lead to the dominoes falling one after
another (which domino will fall first is an interesting question....
it could be student loan debt, could be something else).
When that day comes, the USG won't be worried about NoKo. It will be
worried about the things it should have been worried about for the
past 40 years, first and foremost its own citizens.